저자: Nick · 외국인
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9/17~18 FOMC를 앞두고 변동성이 클 것이라 진단. 버핏의 BAC 매도, 디몬의 스태그플레이션 경고를 인용하며 경기침체가 이미 진행 중이라는 견해를 제시. 1980~2020년 금리인하 후 S&P500 하락 차트를 근거로 금리인하가 대개 증시 폭락·조정으로 이어진다고 주장. 2007년과 2024년의 유사성을 강조하고 대폭락 가능성에 대비하라고 경고하나, 상승 가능성도 함께 언급하며 양면적 태도.
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as of right now we are 48 hours away from finding out what the Federal Reserve is going to do and how it will impact the markets also we are going to discuss this topic in this video that we are having thus a warm welcome to the channel one and all this is Nick my name for those of you who are new to the channel I hope that by the time you reach the conclusion of this video you will have subscribed to the channel in the event that we take a cursory look at what is taking place yes the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee has begun the event will start on September 17th nevertheless the 18th is the day that we make all of those significant decisions the markets will undoubtedly be significantly impacted as a result of this happening to tell you the truth this entire week is going to be packed with a very high degree of volatility if we go over here right now we can see that the Federal Reserve is now likely to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points at the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee that will take place this week personally I would be thrilled to witness the number 25 in my opinion that is a rather understated statement 50 it is unquestionably an indication that something is broken which would have a detrimental impact on the market as a whole that would be detrimental in addition to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting there are a few other important events that we need to pay attention to this week these include of course the data on retail sales for the month of August the data on building permits the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates which will take place on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve press conference which will also take place on Wednesday on Thursday the Federal Reserve released the Manufacturing Index which was Then followed by the data on existing home sales since it is officially fed weak it is safe to say that there will be a significant amount of of volatility when it comes to getting ready for fomc meetings or F C weeks having steady coinage on the sidelines is the most effective method to get ready when it comes to making purchases I usually wait until a day or two after the dust is clear before doing so therefore if we do start to see any huge swings in the market you should definitely kind of take a step back and relax at the same time make an effort to relax and maintain a level of emotional equilibrium Beyond this however let's genuinely talk about some things that we should be concentrating on the first place goes to Warren Buffett recently there has been a lot of talk about Warren Buffett selling a large number of stocks including apple and now Bank of America as well again he sold 1 billion dollars worth of Bank of America people are being led to believe that banks are finished as a result of this as you are aware the banks have been closed they are in a terrible situation furthermore one thing that I really kind of take away from this is that we are beginning to see drama and panic building up around markets this is something that I really kind of take away from this every single person has reached that moment in their lives where they are thinking there is nothing that can save us simply said we are going to keep selling whatever we have as of right now we are technically in a recession and that's it it is over now for the sake of clarity I would like to make it clear that I am of the opinion that we are already experiencing a recession what we are seeing right now is a capitulation of the markets just prior to one of the most significant swings to the higher in my opinion we have JP Morgan located over here Chief Jamie Diamond has issued a warning that the United States economy is facing a scenario that is even more dire than a recession a stag inflation recession and higher inflation rate would be the worst possible outcomes in my opinion there are going to be a lot of individuals who say well you know JP JP Morgan JB Morgan Jamie Diamond are going to say that in the past they have propagated rubbish which suggests that if we did the reverse we would make a great deal of money it is my firm belief that Jamie Diamond is absolutely right on this matter yet the question that arises is whether or not this is the appropriate time do you have any idea when this is going to take place and at this exact moment everyone is still promoting bullish charts on the actions taken by the federal Reserve but at the same time we are witnessing some fear mongering as a matter of fact I am of the opinion that we are witnessing a greater amount of concern than bullish news and bullish news and bullish outlooks in relation to the federal reserve's impending actions the Federal Reserve is planning to reduce the Benchmark price by 50 basis points in Just 4 days from now I want you to keep in mind what I said in a technical sense 50 BPS is considered bearish because it would indicate that something is going wrong keep in mind that the bull market began around the time that they cut rates the last time in terms of Bitcoin this is quite positive now the issue is that everyone is looking at this and they are looking at it in a way that suggests there is only one way forward which means that we either have to crash or we have to pump aggressively a chart is something I'd like to show you all in a moment first there is the Federal Reserve and then there is the financial crisis this reveals everything we need to know about recessions the effective rate of the federal funds the exponential growth tendency of the FED funds the sp500 and rate decreases rate reductions are highlighted in red when we take a look at this chart we can see that the first official rate drop occurred somewhere around the year 198 1 this data goes all the way back to 1983 moreover we were able to observe what transpired immediately following the occurrence of a large decline in the SP 500 it is possible that you might not consider it to be that significant yet it was significant however beyond that point it did begin to bounce off of something however keep in mind that this is a factor that delays it did not begin to improve until the year 1985 or 1984 which was the year that we witnessed the subsequent huge cut again the value of the markets increased rather than decreasing during this period perod of time after that we receive even another reduction in the interest rate which is comparable to the one that was implemented in 1989 we have a little bit of a flat line on the sp500 and then we sell off and then we go crazy during the bubble and this continues all the way up until around the year 2000 there were three rate Cuts in between but none of them were particularly significant until the final one which led to a recession it was a small recession and we sold off heavily in terms of the S500 as you guys are undoubtedly all aware this was one of the worst sell-offs in the history of the world and then we plunge into the catastrophe that occurred in 2008 and here we are in 2007 and then all of a sudden we crash T here is the credit crisis and the SP 500 has experienced a significant drop it seems that everyone is in a state of Terror after that we proceed all the way to the year 2020 which is when we did experience yet another reduction in the interest rate but you people however are aware of what took place as a result of this chart from real investment advice we have received the rate decrease and they have stated that technically speaking that was a recession nevertheless we made a significant loss on the sp500 and then we made a comeback therefore when we consider whether we are bullish or bearish the answer is affirmative we can be in a situation where we are ready to pump extensively but we must not forget to take into account the pain that we are experiencing in the short term that is a possibility it would appear that everyone wants the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates it is a commonly held belief that a pivot by the Federal Reserve would be beneficial to the markets clearly this is not the case the market almost usually experiences a crash and a correction after the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates let's take a look at the historic inversion of the yield curve followed by normalization the blue fed pivot the red recession the bare market and the bottom black perhaps things are different this time but it's also possible that they aren't and now we come to the Turning Point the area of pivot is available to us as you can see we also have the inversion of the yield curve and then there is also the recession all of the pivots are colored red just as I described we have one here in this location which dates back to around the year 2000 or so in the Year 2007 in the year 2020 we also have one in addition if we are about to witness yet another one of these it is uncertain what will take place in the following moments is it going to be a pump or a sell-off that we are going to engage in instead mainly due to the fact that what can occur is a significant adjustment after that we pump one of the most significant issues is that everyone is only expecting up there are 4 days left until the Federal Open Market Committee meeting which Powell is expected to cut by 0.25% the odds are currently 50% for a cut of 0.25% and 50% for a cut of 0.5% there are extraordinary parallels between the years 2007 and 2024 including charts and comments in addition I must say that this is a pretty nice understanding at this point in a technical sense this is quite bearish we have this post which does not call for a crash in the Year 2007 it is merely a matter of emphasis there are some fascinating parallels between the time and the economic indicators and it is true that they are quite comparable for the moment I will state that however the most important item to concentrate on in this context is what occurred prior to the Year 2007 as well as what has occurred up until this point in time that has led us to the current state of affairs in point of fact the most important thing that I want to take away from all of this is the fact that the events that led up to the crash occurring in 2007 and 2008 were extremely meteoric in the vicinity of these markets we have not yet witnessed such happening in practice and I am fully aware that you are most likely going to ask well what about stocks what about stocks although strictly speaking the stock market has experienced a good runup we haven't really seen anything spectacular happen that would explain a major crash and a massive move to the negative for example a 2007 or 2008 kind move would be considered a massive move however as far as we are concerned this week is going to be quite exciting during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday Powell is anticipated to make an announcement regarding a reduction in interest rates because there is a 505050 likelihood of either a reduction.
250.50 you should prepare ready for the massive crash everyone is nearly anticipating a significant crash to occur that is the reason why I am of
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