저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
페이스북(메타) 급락을 계기로 본 시장 논리: 스마트머니가 메타를 매도했고, 금리·인플레이션 충격이 이익 추정치에 반영되지 않았다는 주장. 첫 줄 결론: 월가 이익 전망이 현실과 괴리되어 있어 주식 전반이 낮은 가격으로 재평가될 가능성이 크다. 메타 가격 움직임: 주가지수는 2.5% 가까이 올랐는데 메타는 약 400포인트(대략 -4%대) 하락. 원인은 스마트머니의 매도로 설명됨. 메타 밸류에이션 논리: 시장은 메타 PER이 싸다고 보지만, 인플레이션과 이익 기대치를 반영하면 실제 적정가치는 더 낮고 현 가격은 과대평가. 이익 전망에 대한 우려: 에너지·매출원가 상승을 전가하기 어려운데도 월가는 올해 사상 최대 이익, 내년 증익을 예상하는 점이 비현실적이라고 지적. 경기침체와 고용: 인력 감축·지출 축소로 이익을 방어할 수 있다는 시각을 언급하나 채용 동결은 2년 선행이라 효과가 늦다고 봄. 전망: 올해와 2023년 이익이 감소할 것이며 전체 주식이 낮은 가격으로 리프라이싱될 것. 현금을 많이 태우는 비수익 기술주에 압력이 집중될 것. 리스크: 수익성 있는 빅테크도 비용 절감 중이며(메타 VR 프로토타입 취소 등), 확신하기엔 반론 여지가 있다는 점을 전제로 함.
다듬은 글
tell you guys a quick story one of the most interesting canaries in the coal mine of all of this was two days ago and what uh happened to Facebook and this sort of ties a lot of this stuff together in terms of like economics inflation asset prices equities Tech we should we that we can try to talk about non-sort of you know big Tech but the everybody was saying oh gosh the Market's going to rip on the open you know we were closed for Juneteenth and then on Tuesday the market you know the s p was up like 250 basis points 2.5 percent and the NASDAQ was also up you know call it maybe 300 basis points roughly but Facebook was down like 400 points right so it's a big spread and why is that and I was like this makes no sense to me what is going on with this price action everything was up Apple was up Google was up and so I called around and you know I was like why is this happening and this is the best explanation I got when you look at who the incremental buyer is in the stock market it tends to give you a sense of whether prices can go up or will continue to go down and the poorest informed buyer tends to be retail and the most informed buyer tends to be these very large institutional hedge funds right so there's a spectrum and uh Facebook is an example of one of the of big Tech that is poorly owned by retail so it's mostly owned by smart money and the case that smart money makes for owning Facebook is that it's got an extremely cheap price to earnings ratio so you must own it and what they said was that they you know looking at the Tea Leaves of consumer demand what they actually re-underwrote was that actually it's not that the price to earnings was cheap it's at the e in p e was just wrong and if they pass through all of these increases in inflation and you know their earnings expectations into Facebook it's actually more like fair value at a lower price that's why they sold it so much on a day where the market was up now why is that important well eventually you're going to touch all these other stocks as well that are going to go through earnings revisions in this recession this is where I think Wall Street has done a very poor job on behalf of retail if you look at the average average estimates of earnings you will be shocked to hear that Wall Street actually has this year being record earnings next year earnings continuing to go up how is that anything possible wow if you're sitting here how do you see how do you see earnings continue to go up into these prints like this when you cannot pass through you know 80 90 increases in energy and cogs and whatnot how does that I think the what people would say is maybe they're going to lower their costs and so with layoffs and lowering salaries and lowering spend on Advertising you know the earn it the E could go up if people be caught start Bell tightening and then we start having companies that are being run you know just more um you'll have for them you'll have you have to sell fewer things because there'll be fewer people with jobs to buy things but we have 10 million job openings so this is the weird thing about this recession is because we haven't let a lot of people immigrate into the country but exactly so many jobs is that what you think the consensus view on Wall Street is that basically a bunch of people get fired and so that's why earnings continue to go up well they stop hiring for two years in advance right Facebook said they were hiring for like 2024 their hiring plans were looking out two years so now if they go on a hiring freeze maybe there's you know I'm going to give you one cost I'm just putting out a theory I'll give you the counter factual I think it's wrong okay and I think that earnings are going to go down this year and will definitely go down in 23.
and so I think what probably happens is the entire world of equities needs to get repriced at a lower price and in that it's going to put enormous pressure on these cash burning non-profitable tech companies well that's for sure but in the ones that are profitable chamoth they're aware of this Facebook just canceled like two of their prototypes they were working on to save money so that whole 10 billion dollars into you know VR I think they're trying to make that number look smaller smaller
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