저자: Kevin · 외국인
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AMC의 부채(5.3조 아닌 53억 달러 수준의 부채, 연간 이자 약 7950만 달러)와 시네월드 파산 우려를 근거로 AMC 주가 급락을 설명. AMC가 무가치한 우선주 APE를 발행해 주가 상승 시 대량 매도로 현금을 확보해 부채를 상환할 것이라 주장. APE는 보통주 전환 조건이 이사회 제안에 달려 있어 사실상 휴지조각이며 6~12개월 내 1달러 이하로 떨어질 것이라 예측.
다듬은 글
this video is brought to you by seeking alpha instead of 239 the annual plan will just be 99 through the exclusive discount linked down below that's more than 50 off the following statements are an opinion don't sue me bro holy smokes folks amc is undertaking the most brilliant move i've ever seen in stock market history and it's literally designed to screw people who just don't read the fine print and fortunately because you're watching this video even if you don't invest in amc or care about amc you should pay attention to this because not only will you learn how to not get screwed but you'll see why fine print is just so critical because it plays out or should i say will play out likely don't sue me bro like a horror movie but honestly this could be really good for amc stock and really bad for people caught on the wrong side of this uh dare i say farce except the ending hasn't happened yet but uh i kind of think it will and i want to say i guarantee it will but i don't want to get sued but i think if you come back to this video in six to 12 months you're gonna go holy crap that was brilliant buckle up now look before we get into the horror movie we gotta hit some good news for amc which is actually pretty terrible news cineworld this is background okay cineworld on monday said they're considering filing chapter 11 bankruptcy now why does this matter like why would it matter if cineworld is a filing for a chapter 11 bankruptcy when cineworld is obviously not amc like what difference is there well uh here you go there uh maybe aren't actually as many differences and maybe that's why amc is down like 38 today because oh crap cineworld is pretty darn similar take a look at this cineworld has 750 theaters amc is 946.
screens cineworld has 9189 amc has 10 562. that's pretty close okay amc has 31 000 employees cineworld has 28 000 employees cineworld has 4.83 billion in debt amc has 5.3 billion in debt so amc slightly larger on all of those numbers and cineworld's going bankrupt and so this has a lot of people going oh my gosh when you line up the metrics like that no wonder amc is down like 38 today because wait one of their competitors that's pretty well similarly sized a comp is going bankrupt now that's a problem now of course some folks are going to say no kevin it's because the ape thing got issued oh we're going to talk about eight don't we worry and that is not why amc is down 39 afc is down 39 in stock potentially because attendance is actually down 39 in fact if you go into their investor documents which i've already done for you you can see that ending in june or on june 30th attendance was 59 129 which is down 39 percent from when you compare their attendance to the 2019 document when they had 96 955 guests in the same quarter that shows you the substantial 39 decline in attendance for amc movie theaters at the same time according to the bbc box office revenue is down 32 from 2019 and according to my cousin who operates five movie theaters in germany business is up from covid but quote nothing like it used to be now minions top gun and jurassic world are great movies but they're just not enough and even adam aaron the ceo of amc has told us yeah we're going to be pretty dry in the third quarter while we're optimistic there just aren't that many hits coming up and at the same time the entire market is being rejiggered netflix boomed and is now stalling disney is growing like crazy and movie theaters are just barely crawling back from coveted lows and still lower than in 2019 as we saw with attendance down 39 percent compared to 2019 but it's unfortunately not just attendance that's down of these levels and i've done this math for us already take a look at this admissions revenue despite inflation down 27 food and beverage revenue down 19.5 fortunately advertising and gift card revenue is roughly the same as it was in 2019 so that's good but food and beverage and admissions is where most of the money comes in now the good news is people are spending more but it's still not helping amc become profitable in fact people are spending an average of 7.52 cents versus 5.58 in 2019 that's every person that goes to the theater spending an average 7.52 cents on food and beverage you know like popcorn and concessions that's good news but it's mixed into a lot of bad news especially when amc is spending a ton of money on debt and losing money and over fist why well first of all you can see their free cash flow is negative 117 million dollars their net loss for the three months ended in june was 121 million dollars and folks over 65 of the reason they're losing money like crazy is right here debt folks they have a melting of debt 5.3 billion dollars of debt is very expensive it costs them 79.5 million dollars in interest just to service their debt this is why cineworld is like dude just stop the bleeding stop the pain let us go bankrupt and get rid of the debt and this is exactly what people are worried about amc is going to have to do to get rid of their debt their debt is a big problem and the fear that amc might have to go bankrupt is dropping amc stock to the tune of 39 today so what is ape and is ape the reason amc is down 38 39 today no you're about to see one ape is a hail mary ape is what you throw on fourth down and at the 40-yard line if you don't get a touchdown here use going bankrupt this hail mary attempt is literally the most brilliant play i have seen in my career of studying markets psychology stocks and real estate and i'm about to tell you why it's in my opinion a huge farce which reminds me my research and my alerts on whether or not i'm buying or selling something or i'm dumping ape or what i'm doing are all part of the wonderful check out the link down below and use the coupon code expiring august 26th for the best price on any of my programs on building your wealth which include private live streams and q a with me trade alerts and actual trade idea alerts pay specific attention to bundle number one which includes this bundled together with the stocks and psychology of money course so the hail mary ape is a dividend hail mary now a dividend is anything that you receive a value from a company this could be in the form of cash or it could be in the form of a shiny spoon of shares in some random other company in this case amc is giving you a shiny spoon called ape a p e which actually stands for amc preferred equity and for every one share of amc ex that exists you will get one share of ape let's take a look at what that looks like so on screen here you can see that on the left we have amc shares there are 516.8 million shares of amc and as a result you can see that there are 516 million shares of ape one dividend share was given for every share of amc that exists the big difference though is that amc is actually backed by a company that hopefully in the future gets rid of their debt and makes money ape is literally backed by nothing and all amc had to do to create ape is pay some legal and filing fees amc did not provide any cash to ape there's literally nothing backing ape in fact they literally say in their disclosure this is not a cash dividend it did not cost amc anything so amc well other than legal in filing fees so amc creates this shiny spoon called ape which is basically worthless there's there's nothing backing ape at all and then they happen to conveniently call it amc preferred equity which is convenient because the entire momentum movement around gamestop and amc has surrounded this idea that you want to be a diamond handing ape hey i still own the amc shares i promise to huddle that makes me a diamond hand ape at least when it comes to amc okay now what about ape though and what about ape is potentially a big scam and again this is my opinion i don't want to get sued by amc because the reality is the better ape does the better it is for my amc shares and you're going to see why you just want to be careful about ape because uh there's something in the fine print that's kind of scary so ape can be used as a tool to prevent amc from going bankrupt let me explain that and then i'm going to show the danger so we know that cineworld is going bankrupt because they have too much debt we know amc is a similar size and amc could go bankrupt too because they have too much freaking debt and 65 of their loss is because of interest expense so why not try to sell air or a worthless shiny spoon to people raise cash and pay down your debt in a legal way how about you legally rip people off and pay down your debt so you don't have to go bankrupt and burn your your bond holders or your shareholders which would be ripping off the debt holders right so what's amc doing amc creates ape and what amc wants is ape to go to the moon because if ape goes to the moon 10 15 whatever amc can start dumping millions of shares and the cash that amc raises when they dump millions of ape shares will go to pay down amc debt which is absolutely brilliant and folks this this isn't like a big secret they literally literally tell you this this is in their last filing and you can see here amc uh says that amc preferred equity units or ape will provide amc with a currency that can be used in the future to strengthen our balance sheet including debt repayments and provide capital for shareholder value enhancing and transformative investing opportunity in other words ape is literally a nothing currency they created just to try to raise money to pay down their debt very very very very smart okay but how are they tricking people like where's the sinister aspect here because so far this doesn't seem bad but what you want to remember is the more ape goes up the less debt amc has so if you're an amc shareholder you want ape to go to the moon but you don't want to own ape you probably don't know don't get me wrong ape could go to the moon on momentum but it's worthless there's nothing backing it literally nothing now you might be saying wait a minute kevin wait a minute ape shares are worth something in fact kevin i'll have you know that ape shares are convertible to one amc share and ape shares have the same voting rights as amc shares i mean that after all is what this form says kevin did you did you not read this form right here that tells you you have the same right to one vote per share and that it could be converted to an amc share which basically in that case means that if i could buy an ape share for seven dollars and 31 cents i'm basically able to get a cheaper version of amc which amc is trading for 11 and 14 cents right so why not buy the ape if i could just turn that into amc in the future because you're getting screwed and you didn't actually find print this is where we need that tick tock music but i'm too lazy to edit it so this is the thesis and let me show you where it falls it apart where it all falls apart ape is backed by nothing and people believe that because they have one vote that equals amc votes and they're an equal amount of shares obviously the ape shareholders are going to vote to convert to amc because they would be going from something that's literally worthless to having ownership in an actual company that makes sense i would if i was an ape shareholder i would absolutely vote to convert to amc oh but this is where the fine print is just so glorious so glorious are ape units convertible into common stock if so when like listen to this qualification well technically yes they literally write technically yes okay okay but wait for the killer here wait for the killer but only if the amc board proposes and then investors vote to increase the number of authorized shares of common stock now if that didn't make sense to you let me make it very very simple amc shareholders in the past have already refused shareholder dilution to allow amc to shell sell shares on the open market because it would dilute shareholders it would raise cash for amc but shareholders said we don't want you to do that so amc shareholders already voted no to this once before ape shareholders obviously are gonna vote yes on this but wait a minute folks it isn't even gonna go to a freaking vote why isn't it even gonna go to a freaking vote because it literally says only if the amc board proposes it and the amc board has a responsibility to amc shareholders not to ape shareholders the amc shareholder board has the duty the fiduciary duty to make sure that amc shareholders are protected so the board is literally going to refuse to even bring this up for a vote that's the trick so like think about it why would the board of amc dilute valuable amc shares for these worthless ape shareholders and shares it makes no sense they won't because amc knows what they're doing they're selling you air they're selling you thin air they're selling you a shiny spoon called ape and it's worthless the ape or i'm sorry the amc board would be moronic and would get sued to oblivion they would be so stupid to let ape shareholders convert their shares to amc shares because it would immediately dilute aimc shareholders by 50 amc would plummet in the meantime amc is selling ape holders hopium that maybe amc shareholders could let ape shareholders in in the future through conversion but again only if the board proposes a vote for this which they won't do it's so obvious in the meantime amc shareholders and the board are hoping for a rally on ape stock the more ape rallies the more amc can dump this thin air and sell it to people remember as of the initial filing amc raised zero dollars from ape but if ape stabilizes and then all of a sudden amc says hey we're selling a few million dollars of ape well now amc slowly starts to get rid of their debt it's a brilliant move here's how that could look look on screen now if amc sells ape or thin air which they can sell up to 484 million shares of it in 2022 or 2023 but if they change their mind they could sell all the way up to 400 or sorry 4.484 billion shares whatever proceeds come from that help amc prevent bankruptcy so for example if they sell 484 million shares at 10 of ape amc almost wipes out their debt they raise 4.84 billion dollars by giving people nothing just hope it's brilliant if ape goes from seven dollars all the way down to a dollar and amc is just like let's just sell all 4.484 billion that we can still share sell then they will also raise 4.84 billion dollars and so it's my belief that amc is going to dump a token over and over and over and over and over again until it's basically worth zero and when it's worth zero they won't propose a vote to let ape shareholders come over to amc they'll take all the cash pay off their debt prevent bankruptcy and this will go down as the greatest farce in stock market history ever oh but folks you could get an nft of your ape token because it's just as freaking worthless that's literally what their documents say you could read it yourself but i just gave you the summary of it and i just showed you a little screenshot of that document so let's make this very very clear ape is a ploy it is a ploy to hope that meme stock traders pump up ape stock to the moon so that way there's a sustained market amc can dump shares raise lots of money and pay off their debt and again if you want a free nft to showcase how stupid it is to hold your ape shares make sure to go to the amc investor connect website and get your free nft because let me tell you ape shares are going to be worth as much as that nft is going to be worth zero in six to 12 months i expect tip ticker symbol ape will be worth one dollar or less that would be an 86 decline from today and it'll be worthless and delisted soon after that the hope is that amc will have paid off all of their debt before ape becomes worthless but until 8 becomes worthless amc will continue to use it as a free money printer and this is a brilliant farce
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