저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아 실적은 호조였으나 관세·수출규제 등 거시 불확실성으로 주가가 밀림. 패널들은 AI 투자사이클이 아직 초기이며 엔비디아 밸류에이션이 매력적이라고 봄. 대형 클라우드 capex는 계속 확대 중이며 추론 수요도 컴퓨팅 집약적이라는 논지. 다만 투자자 불안(AI 지출 지속성, 딥시크 이후 회복 지연)은 남아 있음.
다듬은 글
save the day does it so A beautiful day and then right here we get right into where we're about to have that discussion boom we have the discussion and bang now we get a great set of numbers from Nidia tonight and uh well then we'll have to wonder what they matter tomorrow will they matter if the president ruminates on Taiwan tariffs or China tariffs 2550 who knows if it'll matter now speaking as a citizen I have no problem with these tariffs if only to protect against unfair Trade Practices but as someone who cares about the stock market I can tell you that we're entering a new more Mercurial world where we have to start worrying about the president's public appearances because we don't know which country which continent which Ally he is going to attack next maybe in this sense the Russians are lucky in 2021 they ran a$ 23.3 billion Trade Surplus with us now that's way down thanks to the sanctions we hit them with after they invaded Ukraine no matter this Market's decided that as much as it matters if there's good news like canidia uh what matters more is that we have very little certainty on trade policy aside from the fact that the president loves tariffs as much as he loves making headlines now I don't want to obscure the company where the stock I I that I always say own don't trade Nvidia after the close it was a very good quarter everyone thought this would be the most eventful quarter of earning season but it was a non-event why because it was terrific and Jensen Wong gives us terrific numbers he's about as steady as the president is ruo the company put up solidly better than expected sales and earnings with strong guidance for the quarter driven by the strength of their new high-end chips Blackwell chips fantastic Bravo while we still have have to worry about tariffs and Export restrictions I have to tell you the numbers were excellent but let's talk about another situation now let's break down this next part will nvidia's strong numbers matter tomorrow and the answer isn't always straightforward even positive earnings can be overshadowed by broader economic concerns in this case tariff talks on Taiwan or China here's why that matters tariffs can significantly impact Supply chains especially for tech companies that rely on overseas manufacturing Nvidia for instance is heavily to taiwan's semiconductor industry so if the president enforces new tariffs nvidia's costs could Spike and its profit margins may take a hit even with impressive earnings take a look at tech stocks joining us now as Doug Clinton intelligent Alpha founder and CEO Doug great to have you with us uh how far can the tech trade go without Nvidia I think it can still go further I mean if you look at the broader set of the mag 6 we always look at this the PE ratio for this year is 27 it's 23 times for next year so even without Nvidia I think stocks like Google meta uh Amazon can carry the tech trade but I don't know that we should assume that Nvidia can't participate here you know I do think that their earnings last week were good despite the stocks reaction and I think right now the question is maybe a little bit less about the fundamentals around the AI trade are these hyperscalers still spending and it's more just a question of emotions in the market when will investors feel comfortable coming back to the table for AI Nvidia still hasn't been able to achieve pre deep seek levels I it feels like there is an inherent concern about um you know how much of a spend will be needed and granted the hyperscalers have announced or confirmed or even upped their capex spending forecasts for the year but there's no there's no saying that meta has to spend that much money by the end of the year or that alphabet does as well there's not but I also think if you really put it into perspective think about the hyperscalers they're really all competing with each other and in some senses it's this we've called it a pascalian wager before I mean if you believe in AI you really do have to invest into the technology because you know let's say Microsoft drops out of the race I don't think that means Google or meta are going to drop out because they see a future where AI is the next transformative technology and potentially a trillion dollar opportunity for them and so no nothing is certainly committing them to these step ups that they've made it's been about 30% by the way from the beginning of the year on these capex builds um but I think that we should rely on them probably doing it and just quickly Doug you know Intel had some headlines today that some chip companies like broadcom sending test chips through their factories so we're seeing a boost in shares of Intel's pre-market do you believe in in investing in sort of the dogs of tech for the year I mean for the year it is up somewhere around 20% it has been a contrarian play that has worked uh we have not been involved in it and I would say say this if you think about the chip trade more broadly I would rather look at a TSM obviously people are trying to diversify around TSM there's some geopolitical risk there but still right now all roads lead to them whether you make memory whether you make gpus or custom silicon you're really probably relying on TSM and this is where Market psychology comes into play investors love certainty right now the AI boom is full of assumptions rather than guarantees will meta really spend all that money will alphabet until those Investments materialize nvidia's stock might struggle to regain momentum even if its fundamentals remain bulletproof let's get more in nvidia's report in the state of the AI trade steil Ruben Roy joins us now Ruben great to have you with us here on set what did you make of the quarter you know within the context of all the moving Parts going into the quarter I really don't think it could have gone much better I think uh Jensen and Company you know laid out the vision laid out the plan for the rest of the year and I think uh you know things really went well you had technical issues for Blackwell you had the Deep seek event you had tariffs and all kinds of things and then you know the overarching thing of theme of uh how long is this capex cycle going to happen or you know how how big can it get and we went through uh December quarter earnings and every hyperscaler raised their capex pretty much right Google went to $75 billion for the year up from consensus expectations in in the low 60s so I think it went really well maybe a couple things we could nitpick on uh margins and and other otherwise but overall I thought I think it was a great question so why do you think the markets are so skeptical I mean you I imagine that today it was a very busy day for you spent all day talking to investors and and clients Etc about this slide into the close um how skeptical are people of the AI story at this point because it's obviously Nvidia didn't say anything the key takeaway here is that AI isn't just a passing Trend it's the Battleground for the next wave of innovation companies like Microsoft Google and meta aren't just experimenting with AI they're reshaping their entire business models around it so even if one slows down another will step up ensuring the momentum in AI development doesn't stall anytime soon Jensen went full court press you know he did the conference call then he did a 20-minute interview on CNBC and the stock still slid into the close today yeah I think I heard the term you know shoot first ask questions later and um you I think there's a lot of jitters in the marketplace I mean kind of what's next we've got this event probably you know there is a little bit of a drisking which is great but then what right so in our view we've got a catalyst coming up in a few weeks time and's going to have their big Tech conference GTC which I think is going to be uh really interesting in terms of product road maps technology and otherwise but you know until then what are we what are we playing for I guess short term is is sort of what's what's I think in the market today well Ruben maybe we're just playing for a valuation argument that at some point says this is really attractive I mean you know relative to peers and I I would just say also help us understand within your coverage especially in the semiconductor space I mean where would you rather be given at least and the concerns around AI are uh certainly not places that I think there's really almost anyone else that can even be in this game so talk about valuation and talk about relative value to the peer group I mean it was cheap this morning when we were pitching it to the to to investors even better better we liked it this morning we love it now um down in the low 20s on next year's earnings right and numbers didn't move much right but you know you have a ramp coming we want to play for the black ball ramp it has it just started uh it's it's it's going better than we thought but second half bigger ramp uh potentially so a stock that's trading in the low 20s on forward earnings uh with you know margins people are kind of complaining about 71% gross margins I've been covering semiconductors for 25 years that's pretty good and as you guys know Nvidia is not a chip company it's a system software and solutions company and I think margins are going to go back up into the mid 70s as Blackwell you know continues to ramp throughout the year and you've got you know other things networking coming back software coming back Etc so I think the Stock's cheap it's the best way to play AI compute but yes I think AI uh and investment it's a broader investment cycle there's networking companies out there there's a lot of other companies that are I think part of this you know boats Rising With all tides that Nvidia really is driving so we're we're still in kind of fullbore AI investment cycle so Ruben thanks for being here first of all um I thought he spent a lot of time on the call trying to talk about inference as actually needing much more compute than we had originally thought this should have been a major win for NVIDIA instead we're seeing a market that remains skeptical despite blowout earnings and a strong Outlook nvidia's stock slid into the close raising an important question what are investors so afraid of and so how did you did you buy that and how do you think that translates into the story yeah I I do buy that I am you know uh and it's not just Jensen talking about it we talk about we talked to supply chain folks we talked to other uh users of you know various uh methods of AI compute but I think something get gets lost is oh you need a lot of compute for training and then we could do inference on our iPhones I don't think it's that simple I think the definition of inference across workloads is very wide and you know there are inference use cases that require massive amounts of compute and the other thing that's happening I think deep seek is showing this is that the world's changing very quickly right when you get to posttraining models and we get to um you know kind of distillation of other models and trying to figure out reasoning and otherwise there's a lot of compute intensity so that that's what's going on I think the you know the world really hasn't figured it out yet so when we talk about custom chips and custom Solutions I think Nvidia is you know kind of approach of a GPU which by nature is quite flexible and programmable uh and you know workload independent I think there's a lot of Merit to that as we you know figure out where the workloads are going I still think we're in the very early Innings of you know an overall AI investment cycle and inference is in our opinion absolutely going to be longtail if there's one thing to take away from this it's that nvidia's dominance isn't slowing down any time soon despite short-term volatility the company remains at the center of the AI Revolution and while other companies are catching up nvidia's ecosystem of software networking and full stack AI Solutions gives it an edge that no one else has matched yet the end
댓글 0