저자: JimRogers/인터뷰어FlorianHomm · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 곧 다가올 경기침체와 신뢰 붕괴로 세계 금융시장이 큰 조정을 받을 것이며, 2017년 전후가 전환점이 될 수 있다는 전망. 경기 및 중앙은행 정책: 일본 20년 이상의 양적완화, 유럽·일본의 제로금리 및 마이너스금리가 7~8년간 지속되었고, 중앙은행 정책 여력이 한계에 도달했다고 주장. 다음 침체는 우리 생애 최악이 될 수 있으며, 그 다음 위기는 기존 체제의 종말이 될 수 있다고 봄. 시점 판단: 세계적으로 약 8년간 경제위기가 없었고 미국 역사상 4~7년 주기로 위기가 있었다는 점을 근거로 들며, 2016년 미국 대선 이후 정책 한계가 드러나 2017년이 끝의 시작일 것으로 전망. 다만 본인의 타이밍 예측은 과거 매우 부정확했다고 인정. 과대평가 영역: 미국 대형 기술주(아마존, 애플 등 소수 대형주가 지수를 지탱)가 가장 과대평가되어 있다고 지적. 대부분 종목은 하락세이며 전 세계 주식이 하락 중이라고 언급. 투자 대안: 러시아는 바닥을 쳤을 가능성, 중국 일부 산업(환경 정화 투자 등)은 상황과 무관하게 성장 가능성. 대부분 사람에게 가장 좋은 피난처는 미국 달러로 제시하나, 달러가 진정한 안전자산은 아니라고 덧붙임. 금: 2011년 이후 금을 추가로 매수하지 않았으나, 다음 하락 시 더 매수하고 싶다고 밝힘. 정부와 통화에 대한 신뢰 상실 시 사람들이 금과 은으로 몰린다고 봄. 싱가포르 달러: 실물 자산 뒷받침이 있고 안전자산으로 여겨지지만, 싱가포르는 세계에서 가장 부채가 많은 국가 중 하나라 위기를 버티기 어려울 것이라고 부정적 견해. 출연자 전망 요약: 전반적으로 약세(bearish) 입장이며, 공매도 포지션을 유지 중. 소로스, 칼 아이칸 등 유명 투자자들도 순매도 포지션을 가졌다고 언급.
다듬은 글
okay Jim so first thank you very much uh for taking the time I gotta tell you that uh when I worked with Peter Lynch after Harvard Business School you were a huge inspiration not just because of your investment results but because you travel you live life and you look left and right and that's uh very refreshing so thanks for the opportunity the um there are a number of issues uh I hope especially one is uh we foresee a crack in confidence at some point and we've seen over 20 years of quantitative easing in Japan seven eight years of serp nurp in Europe and Japan uh our central banks maxing out at some point or is this an infinite game uh soon Florian they're probably in the next few months if not before you're going to see the end of all of this now the next uh downturn is going to be worse than anything we've experienced in our lifetime depending on what happened might be the final one where everything totally collapses let's assume we get through the next collapse and that there's a recovery for whatever reasons the one after that will be the end so let's see the next one or the one after that which is going to be the end of everything we know um I'm I'm in your Camp uh I sense the degree of urgency I've been careful I wrote a bestseller in Germany and we said 2017 uh what gets you uh uh sensitive on timing because when you've been very reluctant on the timing for a long long time you know my timing has always been horrible I'm the single worst Market timer in the world nobody's as bad as I am for as far as short-term trading is concerned but you know it's been almost eight years uh going on eight years since our last economic problem in the world and historically doesn't have to happen but historically it's been four to seven years since the beginning of the American Republic so I would suspect that after this election everybody will realize well what do we do now policies have not worked anywhere in the world interest rates are already going up so I would suspect next year is the end of the story oh we're in the same camp what do you what do you where do you see the greatest pockets of overvaluation and risk Jim oh great the great 20 whatever whatever the numbers you know the Amazon the apples the ones that never go down that's where the overvaluation is the American Stock Market most stocks have been going down so a few big stocks have held the averages up but around the world I mean stocks are going down everywhere except for a few average a few big stocks in America holding up the averages when I looked at your history and you uh performed so well with George Soros in a very turbulent Market over a decade up and down left and right uh where do you think uh if one wanted to invest besides inverse exchange traded funds or put options where would you Harbor uh yourself your assets well I was already so short you just said except for that but I would certainly learn to sell short if I were everybody yeah if you're looking for places uh Russia Russia is certainly depressed uh it is hit bottom maybe parts of China you know some parts of the Chinese economy are going to do well no matter what pollution Cleanup in China China's terribly filthy the Chinese are spending lots of money to clean up China now so there are some parts of the world economy that are going to do well no matter what happens and that's the way where you should hide the main place to hide for most people would be just own US dollars when the turmoil comes most people are going to look for a safe haven they think the U.S dollar is a safe haven it's not it's not a but they think it is so the US dollar will probably be the best for many people uh and let me uh you know I follow these markets for four decades and I've really been very fortunate to win lots of awards but I've never seen the following I've never seen you being short George Soros being that short Carl Icahn being net short and even uh Crispin O'Day in London and yeah in a little bit in a little way myself um do you know anybody who's very sharp uh with a spectacular track record who's really long person to ask some people like to go to gold and in 2008 gold collapsed initially losing 30 percent then did amazingly well uh what I like is that you're not a classical gold bear uh or or bull but uh do you think gold will weather this even though gold has become almost a stock well I own gold and have for a long time I haven't bought any really since 2011.
uh 2010 to be precise um I am looking for another opportunity to buy gold before this is over for him most of many governments are going to be people going to lose confidence pay for money and when that happens historically people put their money in gold and silver doesn't matter whether they should or not that's what they do and the next time gold goes down I hope I'm smart enough to buy it perhaps a lot of gold okay in the coming turmoil yes thank you Jim you're sitting in a part of the world in the currency which has at least nominantly real asset backing Singapore dollar and Singapore is generally considered a safe haven do you believe I mean you probably know Singapore very well do you think the Singapore dollar May survive this mess coming Miss oh no I don't mainly because numbers you will see that Singapore is one of the most indebted Nations
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