저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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첫 줄 결론: 주식은 기업을 이해하고 장기 보유하는 것이 핵심이며, 시장·금리 예측은 시간 낭비다. [투자 원칙] 자신이 보유한 주식을 2분 안에 10살 아이에게 설명할 수 있어야 한다. 이해하지 못하는 기업은 보유하지 말아야 한다. [기업 가치와 주가] 주가는 결국 기업 실적을 따라간다. Coca-Cola는 32년간 주당 이익이 약 30배 늘었고 주가도 약 30배 올랐다. Bethlehem Steel은 이익이 줄어 주가가 30년 전의 절반이다. [예측에 대한 입장] 시장 예측, 금리 예측, 경기 예측은 모두 시간 낭비다. 금리를 3번 연속 맞히면 억만장자가 될 것이다. 경제 지표 중 자신이 보유한 업종과 직접 관련된 지표(중고차 가격, 호텔 점유율, 에틸렌 가격, 알루미늄 재고 등)만 보면 된다. [시장 하락에 대한 입장] 역사적으로 시장은 93년간 10% 이상 하락이 50번, 25% 이상 하락(약세장)이 15번 있었다. 하락은 반드시 온다. 하락기를 기회로 활용할 수 있으며, 이 하락 때문에 주식을 팔 필요는 없다. [장기 보유] 좋은 기업은 장기간 보유해야 성과가 난다. Walmart는 상장 10년 후 매수해도 약 30배 수익이었다. 가장 좋은 종목은 5~7년차에 성과가 났다. [사례] Tagamet(Smith Kline), Chrysler 미니밴, Ford Taurus, Microsoft 등 본인 업종에서 확인 가능한 기업 변화를 활용해 수익을 낼 수 있다고 강조한다. [손실 관리] 3달러 주식도 0까지 떨어질 수 있으니 '싸다'는 이유만으로 사면 안 된다. 주가가 떨어졌다는 이유로 매수하거나 매도하면 안 된다. Kaiser Industries 사례처럼 자산 가치를 파악하고 있어야 하락 시 판단할 수 있다. [심리] 주식은 내가 보유하고 있다는 사실을 모른다. 걱정거리(대공황, 핵전쟁, 석유 파동, 일본 붕괴, 신흥국 부채 등)는 항상 있었으며, 이를 무시하고 좋은 기업을 보유하는 것이 중요하다.
다듬은 글
this is Peter Lynch a legendary investor who managed the Fidelity Magellan fund from 1977 to 1990. during which time he achieved a remarkable annualized return of 29.2 percent Peter Lynch is well known for his distinct investing approach which involved investing in the companies we already know thoroughly researching the company's business and holding on to those Investments for long term he shares his insights knowledge and philosophy for all the brokies out there in this lecture the single a single most important thing to me in the stock market for anyone is to know what you own I'm amazed how many people own stocks they would not be able to tell you why they own it they couldn't say in a minute or less why they only actually you really press them down to say the reason I own this is the sucker is going up and that's the only reason that's the only reason they own it and if you can't explain them seriously you can't explain to a 10 year old and two minutes or less while you're on a stock you should own it and that's true I think about 80 percent of people that own stocks and this is the kind of stock people like to own this is the kind of company people adore owning is a relatively simple company they make a very narrow easy to understand product they make a one megabit SRAM CMOS bipolar risk now if you own a piece of crap like that you will never make money never somebody will come along with more wet Stones the less wet stones or a big Omega flop or a small Omega flop you only have the foggiest idea what's happened and people buy this junk all the time I made money in Dunkin Donuts I can understand it when there's recessions I didn't have to worry about what was happening I could go there and people were still there I didn't have to worry about low price Korean imports you know I can understand it and you laugh I made 10 or 15 times my money in Dunkin Donuts those are the kind of stocks I can understand if you don't understand it doesn't work this is the single biggest principle and it bothers me that people are very careful in their money the public when they buy a refrigerator they get to consume reports they buy microwave oven they do that they ask people what's the best kind of radar range or what kind of car to buy they do research when they go on a trip to Wyoming they get the mobile travel guide or California when they go to Europe they get the Michelin travel guide people will hear a tip on the bus on some stock and they'll put half their life savings in It Before Sunset and they wonder why they lose money in the stock market and when they lose money they blame it on the institutions and program training that is garbage they didn't do any research they bought a piece of junk they didn't look at the balance sheet and that's what you get for it and that's where we're being driven to and it's self-fulfilling the public does terrible investing and they say they don't have a chance it's because that's the way there's that's the way they're acting I'm trying to convince people there is a method there are reasons for stocks that go up uh Coca-Cola this is very magic it's a very magic number easy to remember Coca-Cola is earning 30 times per share what they did 32 years ago the stock has gone up 30 fold Bethlehem Steel is earning less than they did 30 years ago the stock is half its price of 30 years ago stocks are not lottery tickets there's a company behind every stock the company does well the stock does well it's not that complicated people get too carried away and first of all they try and predict the stock market that is a total waste of time no one can predict the stock market they try to predict interest rates if anyone predict interest rates right three times in a row they'd be a billionaire considering there's not that many billionaires on the planet they can't be that many people who can break interest rates because there'd be lots of billionaires and no one can predict the economy so what I'm trying to tell you it'd be very useful to know what the stock market is going to do it'd be terrific to know that the Dow Jones average year for now would be X that we're gonna have a full-scale recession our interest rate is going to be 12 that's useful stuff you never know it though you just don't get to learn it so I've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year in economics you've wasted 12 minutes and I I really believe that now I have to be I have to be fair I'm talking about economics in the broad scale predicting the downturn for next year or the upturn or M1 and m23b and all these all these M's the uh I'm talking about economics to me is when you talk about scrap prices when I own Auto stocks I want to know what's happening to use car prices when used car prices going up it's a very good indicator when I own hotel stocks I'm on Hotel occupancies so chemical stocks I know what's happened the price of ethylene these are facts if aluminum inventories go down five straight months that's relevant I can deal with that home affordability I want to know about my own uh Fannie Mae or I own a housing stock these are facts you can they're economic facts in this economic predictions and economic predictions are a total waste and uh interest rates Alan Greenspan's very honest guy he would tell you that he can't predict interest rates he can tell you what short rates are going to do in the next six months try and stick them on what the long-term rate will be three years from now they'll say I don't have any idea so how are you the investors supposed to take interest rates if they had a Federal Reserve can't do it but you should study history and history is the important thing you learn from what you learn from history is the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years a century this is easy to do the markets had 50 declines of 10 or more so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market Falls 10 percent we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly we call it a correction and uh so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market Falls 10 percent of those 50 declines 15 have been 25 or more that's known as a bear Market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the Market's going to have a 25 decline that's all you need to know you need to know the Market's gonna go down sometimes if you're not ready for that you shouldn't own stocks and it's good when it happens if you like a stock at 14 it goes to six that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet and they're doing fine you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific 6 to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these declines they're going to happen no one knows when they're going to happen it would be very people tell you about it after the fact that they predicted it but they predicted it 53 times and uh so you can take advantage of the volatility Market if you understand what you own so I think that's the key to element another key element is that you have plenty of time people are an unbelievable rush to buy a stock I'll give an example of a well-known company Walmart went public in October of 1970.
1970 went public already had a great record it had 15 years performance great balance sheet you could have waited 10 years saying you're a very conservative investor you're not sure this Walmart can make it you want to check your you see them operating small towns you're afraid they're only making seven or eight states you want to wait till they go to more States you keep waiting you can bought Walmart 10 years after they went public I made 35 times your money if you bought it when they went public you would have made 500 times your money but you can wait 10 years after Walmart in public and made uh 30 over 30 times your month you could wait three years after Microsoft went public and made 10 times your money now if you knew something about software I know nothing about software if you understand my software you would said these guys have it I don't care who's going to win compact IBM I don't know who's going to win Japanese computers I know Microsoft MS-DOS is the right thing you could buy Microsoft again I'm repeating myself stocks are not a lottery ticket there's a company behind every stock and you can just watch it you have plenty of time people are in an amazing rush to purchase the security they're out of breath when they call up you don't need to do this it's uh you need an edge to make money too people have incredible edges and they throw them away I'll give you a quick example of uh Smith Klein this is a stock that had Tagamet now you didn't have to buy Smith Klein when tagment was doing critical trials you don't have to buy Smith Klein when tagment was talked about in the New England Journal of Medicine or the British version Lancet you could have bought Smith Klein when tag them it first came out a year after came out let's say your spouse your mother your father you were a nurse You're a druggist you're writing all these prescriptions Tagamet was doing an amazing job of curing ulcers and it was a wonderful pill for the company because we just stopped taking it the ulcer came back see it wasn't a crummy product and then you took it for a buck and it went away but it was a great product for the company but you could have bought it two years after the product was on the market and made five or six times your money I mean all the drugs all the nurses all the people millions of people saw this product and they're up buying oil companies you know or the drilling rooms it happens and then three years later four years later glaxo even a bigger company is a huge company British company brought Zantac which was a better at that time an improved product and you could have seen that take market share do well goodbye glaxo and triple your money so you only need a few stocks in your lifetime they're in your industry I think of people if you'd worked in the Auto industry let's say you're an auto dealer the last 10 years you would have seen Chrysler come up with a minivan you've seen if you're a Buick dealer or a Toyota deal Honda dealer you would have seen the Chrysler dealership packed with people you could have made 10 times your money on Chrysler a year after the minivan came out Ford inches is a Taurus Sable the most successful line of cars in the last 20 years Ford went up seven-fold on the Taurus table so if you're a car dealer you only need to buy a few stocks every decade when your lifetime's over you don't need a lot of five Baggers to make a lot of money starting with ten thousand dollars or five thousand dollars so in your own industry you're going to see a lot of stocks and that's what bothers me they're good stocks out there looking for you and people just aren't listening and they're just not watching it and uh they have incredible edges people have big edges over me they work in the aluminum Ministry I see aluminum Industries coming down inventories coming down six straight months they see demand improving in America today you know it's hard to get an EPA permit for a bowling alley never mind an aluminum smelter so you know when aluminum gets tight you just can't build seven aluminum smelters so when when you see this coming you can say wait a second I can make some money when an industry goes from terrible To Mediocre the stock goes north when it goes from mediocre to good the stock goes north and it goes from good to terrific to stock goes north there's lots of ways to make money in your own industry you could be a supplier in the industry you can be a customer this thing this thing happens in the paper industry that happens in the steel industry it doesn't happen every week but if you're in you're some field you'll see a turn you'll see something in the publishing industry these things come along and it's just mind-boggling people throw it away uh because a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much you know how much further going to go down I remember when Polaroid went from 130 to 100 people said here's this great company great record whatever gets below 100 you know just buy every share you know and it did get below 100 a lot of people bought on that base and saying look it's got 135 to 100.
it's not 95 what a buy within a year it was 18. and this is coming with no debt I mean it was just so overpriced it went down uh I did the same thing in my uh I think my first or second year Fidelity Kaiser Industries had gone from 26 a share to 16. I said how much lower can it go it's 16. so I think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever on the New York on the America stock exchange of Kaiser Industries at 14.
I said you know it's coming from 26 to 16 how much longer can I go well at 10 I called my mother and said mom you're going to uh look at this Kaiser Industries I mean how much lower can it go it's gone from 26 to 10. well I went to six it went to five it went to four and went to three and uh my unfortunate this happened rapidly I would probably be still cattying or working at the Stop and Shop but it happened fast I was able to say it was compressed uh and at three I figured out you know there's something very wrong here because Kaiser Industries owns 40 of Kaiser steel they own 40 of Kaiser Aluminum they own 32 percent of Kaiser cement they own Kaiser broadcast they know in Kaiser Santa gravel Kaiser Engineers they own Jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now I learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt It's Tricky some people can approach that it's a it's a real achievement but they had no debt and the whole company at three was selling at about 75 million at that point it was equal to buying one Boeing 747 I said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million I was a little premature at 16 but uh I said everything's fine and eventually this will work out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders they passed out shares and kind of cement they passed out chairs in Kaz aluminum they passed out their public shares in Kaiser steel they sold all the other businesses and you got about 50 a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock had gone from 26 to 16 and then it got into 10 what would you do when went to nine what would you do when to eat what would you do when went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now do you flip a coin do you walk around the block you know what do you do it's psychiatrists that haven't worked so far I've never seen them running in this the psychological Psychiatry fund I've never seen listed for the uh with the SEC to make it through as a mutual fund so I they haven't seen the help I've tried prayer that hasn't worked the uh the uh so if you don't understand the company you have this problem when they go down uh eventually they always come back uh this one is a this one doesn't work either uh people think RCA just about to get back to its 1929 High when General Electric took it over uh a lot of double knits never came back remember those Beauties uh uh floppy diss Western Union uh the list goes on and on uh people saying it'll come back well it doesn't have to come back uh here's another one you hear all the time it's three dollars how much can I lose I've had people call me up saying I'm thinking of buying the stock at three how much can I lose well again you may need a piece of paper for this but if you put uh if you and if you put twenty thousand dollars in a stock at 50 or your neighbor put 20 000 at full at 50 into the stock and you put twenty thousand dollars in a three and it goes to zero you lose exactly the same amount of money everything and people say it's three how much can I lose well if you put a million dollars on it you can lose a million dollars just the fact that this is the only this may be a reason a researchers thought the fact of stock is three down from 100 doesn't mean you should uh buy it and in fact short sellers people that really make money in stocks they don't show at Walmart they don't show at Home Depot they're not sure the great companies Johnson they short stocks down from 80 to 7.
they'd like to short it at 16 or 22 but they they figured out at seven that this company is going to go to zero they just haven't blown TAPS in this thing yet it's going to zero and they're selling short seven they're selling short at six at five at four at three at two at one and a quarter and you know what a sell something short you need a buyer somebody has to buy the damn thing and you wonder who's buying this thing it's these people saying it's three how much lower can it go you know the important thing is you can't get too attached to a stock you have to understand there's a company behind it you can't treat this like your grandchildren no you have to deal with the stock and say I understand the company if they deteriorates that the fundamental slip you have to say goodbye to it you have one rule you want to remember is the stock does not know you own it this is a breakthrough so don't get you know you have to understand it and say they're doing well and as long as they keep doing well my best stocks have been my fifth sixth seventh year I own them not my fifth sixth seventh day so you have to understand that and stay with it and then I want to conclude with uh there's always something to worry about uh if you own stocks there's always something to worry about you can't get away from it uh what happens in the 50s people are worried about um the only reason we got out of the Depression was World War II we got another recession in the early 50s and said we're gonna go right back into a depression people worried about a depression in the 50s and they're worried about nuclear war the 50s was the best decade this Century of the stock market and people wouldn't buy stocks in the 50s because they're worried about nuclear war they're worried about depression then people remember when oil went from 4 to 40 and it was going to go to 100 and we're gonna have a depression remember that one well about three years later the same experts now higher paid oil is now a 10 and they said it was going to four and we're going to have a depression and then the Japanese remember the Japanese were going to own the world remember that one and then we're gonna have a depression and then about two years later we're all worried about Japan collapsing this is the most absurd thing I've ever heard it's a company with a 20 savings rate incredible Workforce credible productivity and people are saying we're gonna have a depression booster pants and collapse and they had you know on their prayer list they load Mother Teresa and triple children and they were praying for Japan at night you know it's unbelievable I mean the LDC debt remember the LDC debt remember that one all these countries all Chase had lent their net worth to Brazil Chile Peru and all these other countries so ahead and all the other kinds and all these set they're not going to pay it back and we're going to have a depression we're gonna have a depression or the Great Depression we have the Great Depression I never could quite understand that adjective in front of depression but if the great depressions oh the big one the big one's coming but all these countries and now I understand you know these are called the then they're called less developed countries now we used to call them underdeveloped countries those are all wrong terms those are not politically correct you have to call these emerging countries you can't use less developed or underdeveloped because that's in fact the other day I heard the politically correct term for something that's overweight is laterally challenged yeah yeah that's a so they're always something to worry about and the key organ in your body in the stock market is your stomach it's not the brain if you can add eight and eight get reasonably close to 16 that's the only level of math you need to know you don't know to need the area under the curve remember that quadratic equation and an integral calculus and the area under the curve I mean whoever Kia was under the damn curve but you had to study this you don't need this in the stock market so all you have to know is you're going to see it's always going to be scary there's gonna be always something to worry about and you just have to forget all about it cut it all out and own good companies our own turnarounds study them and you'll do well and that's all there is
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