저자: SparkMan/EditorShin진행 · 한국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼 관련 2020년 코로나 폭락 당시 헤지펀드 CDS 매수 수익을 다룬 영상입니다. 진행자는 빌 애크먼이 코로나 초기 CDS 보증을 매수해 큰 수익을 냈다고 설명하며, 자신의 전망을 중립 이상으로 밝히지 않았습니다. 애크먼의 CDS 매수는 헤지 목적이었고, 2월 초 전후 한 달 동안 풀베팅 방식으로 진행되었다고 소개합니다. 수익 실현은 약 12일간 청산 과정을 거쳤고, 이후 시장 강세 국면에서 다시 공격적으로 진입한 패턴이 언급됩니다. 과거 Herbalife 공매도와 Carl Icahn과의 갈등, 미디어 활용 방식도 함께 다룹니다. 국내 시장에 대해서는 유사한 사례가 있을 수 있다는 정도의 추측만 있고, 특정 종목 전망은 없습니다. 영상에서 언급된 자산 가운데 향후 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명확한 예측은 확인되지 않았습니다.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Spark Web 3 Spark Man. Hello, this is Editor Shin from Boneless Briefing. Today, I would like to talk about Bill Arkmanor, one of the investors who has benefited the most from the Corner incident. So, could you briefly explain who this newcomer, Lacan, is before we begin? First of all, he is a very famous manager.
There are many news reports about how, during the COVID-19 crisis, the Iranian dean bet 30 billion won and earned 3 trillion won, achieving a 100-fold return. However, in reality, he is the founder and operator of a fund that has been running these hatch funds for a very long time, and he runs a company called Square Capital.
So, during its prime, it was managed to reach 30 trillion won, but now it has dropped significantly and I understand it is hovering around the 1-8 structure. Yes, that shows just how much the current Hanam market needed a turnaround opportunity. He stepped up once again this morning and managed the situation this year.
In the process where two people invested in Fund No. 305 and earned 3 trillion won... It seems like a very unique year, and since the two of them had somewhat distinct investment styles, they explained it briefly. Actually, their approaches are quite diverse. Sometimes they make money through long positions, and other times through short positions.
However, what they did this time was essentially shorting the market. They believed that the whole world would be locked down following the COVID-19 outbreak. Observing how it spread in China, they concluded that it would take about a month of lockdowns for the situation to stabilize. They also anticipated that the US and other European countries would need to be under lockdown for at least a month.
However, they realized that this would deal a massive blow to corporate cash flow. In other words, having made that judgment, they decided to take it over around mid-to-late February 1st. This is called a CDS guarantee purchase. You pay an insurance premium, and even though corporate bonds are said to be defaulting—like Ferrari—they started by paying the premium to buy 30 billion won worth.
When they looked at the 3 trillion won value, the CDS product they liked, which they made a profit from today, was immediately visible. Simply put, it is an insurance product that covers the risk of corporate default. You can view it as simply extracting that specific part and trading it in the financial market.
It involves bundling various US or European companies into a single insurance policy, buying when premiums are low, and selling when they are high, which creates the current difference. Did you originally make this investment to ride the market, or is it for hedging purposes? Regarding both, to be precise, it was a situation where a hedge was absolutely necessary.
Why? Because you hold a lot of stocks; if you're dealing with organizations like C4, you're likely invested heavily in them. However, you can't guarantee that the stocks will drop. You need to stop the loss somewhere, so you decided to place a CDS bet. You placed the bet here. Since it was a hedge position, making money was n't just a matter of getting lucky; I don't think it was a matter of luck.
I believe that even if you had to take out the policy itself, a common and smart approach would have resulted in a superior trade. In reality, this credit spread indicates how high the probability of a company defaulting is. But when it hits a historical low—when it is at its cheapest—it disappears.
Since he sold when the price went up, it makes such a perfect judgment, doesn't it? That is why he achieved this profit in almost a month. Because of the favorable conditions that allow for price reductions, if you consider the possibility of consecutive purchases, it becomes a much larger number than just the hundreds.
Also, regarding the 22 minutes, he is famous for being very good at media manipulation. He is known for utilizing the media in a genius way. First of all, he is basically very good-looking and thinks. So, from the past, if he has a position in mind, he comes out to the market and the media keeps spreading that information.
If you look at past short selling cases, for example, although it is used a lot now, there was an experience with Herbalife and Mr. Khan Lycan's product this year. After shorting, he came out and kept saying to the media, "You need to do this a lot," and " I've shorted this company," so he played a well-rounded game to instill fear in people.
He is very good at utilizing the media in that way; you just mentioned "Kara 2" and conveyed that. Could you tell me what kind of person Kara 2 is? You mentioned it. Carl Icahn and his brother. Actually, a generation ago, a hedge fund manager with a more excellent building... Air SK... throughout the bear's management rights...
because it was cold... so... in terms of scale or... when there was a direct item... you can see it as the person who is ahead. But these two actually have a very bad relationship with each other. About 15 years ago, when he handed over his portfolio to Iraqi Icahn, there was a plan that if there was a profit, he should return some of it to him.
Iraqi later made money but violated that, so thirdly, he made a lot of money and sued Icahn. So, a fine of 10 million... actually, it wasn't that big, so Icahn was fined about 10 million dollars... I remember it as something like that. Earlier, I mentioned a lot of GP Icahn and restructuring... I mentioned the fund double, but half of it is actually himself...
Ah, well, honoring someone with that kind of asset scale... actually, what is incredibly common... that deal... I put in... glass... became social... ah... leaves... a lot... Herbalife... now when people short sell and say the company needs to go bankrupt, then the stock price doesn't drop. At that time, with Kara suddenly appearing on this turn, taking advantage of the low-price buying opportunity, I thought, "Let's stop blowing Pyra away." So, I entered the opposing forces, and during the covenant, my war continued, and there was a regrettable story of liquidating that position while losing trillions of won in Iraq.
It's a child, but the Green Car is going to fall, so you have to pay money to use it, right? That's right from the start. At first, I actually viewed it as a country with a downside, telling them to just ignore the court ruling. But regarding what really happened between the two, why do only the agents know?
Actually, if you look for those live TV videos where they appeared on TV and connected both sides via phone interview, and just fought like this, you'll find them. oie Uh, not to you all. Prenatal care bar Nampo until 2 days ago meter or sr Why is the day like this di 2.7, so it must be. Writing 1 sheet to chase mucous knowing said good.
Liquid r Pele slang completely ok Mikel Moët 4:40 In the industry p Sometimes the evaluation inside is a bit like that, especially after that, living for one's own sense of superiority, and there is. If you live a very sexual life, you've probably heard a lot of talk like this, right? Right? So, actually, regarding the Herbalife story, there is a very famous drama called "My Flex." It has a story about betting on going to be a dad, and there is that sound.
Actually, it was originally a two-part series about a house. Your father is someone I know who works in real estate, financing, and investment companies. He did n't even work at a company right after graduating from college; he just created his own business and kept going without coming out, and he was someone who rose to success all by himself.
In fact, he has excellent looks and his story is very compelling. So, in a way, he thinks he is great and lives very confidently. Regarding the Herbalife you mentioned, even if it happens, he clearly defines the relationship with the son and stands on the side of good to eliminate the son, so it seems like he lives his life in that way.
Ah, it feels a bit like an American Hero, that kind of feeling. It seems like he runs a factory. Yes, I'll give you a brief summary, and there is also a very interesting plan, something similar to Trump's love. It seems like it. Earlier, regarding the wealthy family, Swish, and graduating from a top- tier university, perhaps the first Barber leadership should also develop; it seems the same, always, so I also thought they were similar.
When the Kona crisis broke out this time, he was the one who advised Trump, asking if he should say the country had lost for a month. So, he appeared in the team's interview and promoted it subtly. Since he is the primary supporter of the next camp, everyone at home separated their predictions and told them to hold out well during this period.
He is a very excellent person who mainly uses [the stock]. If he is on my side, he is an excellent person. As for Herbalife, which I mentioned earlier, even if you push it too hard, it seems like it will drag on for 5 years. It is incredible that he was able to endure for 5 years while saying that pyramid schemes must fail.
This is because he shorted 1 trillion won worth of stocks at the time; he borrowed the shares to sell and study them, and he endured while continuously paying interest. Plus, if the stock price rose, his position would be broken, but he kept holding out until the end. If he becomes president, he seems like someone who will somehow manage to make it happen with persistence.
If he does it, it will be with his style. You can just take a look. After short-selling, he re-entered the market this time, right? He made a massive purchase. Yes, that is correct. So, regarding this position, he actually went all-in for a month in February, going from knee to foot. He made all the money from this full bet on the biggest drop, and then immediately switched his stance.
Aizen showed a pattern of going full-in again during a massive bull market. To give you an idea of just how much of a full bet it was, to make a profit of 3 trillion won with 2 CDS, the actual trading volume required is much larger. So, it reportedly took about 12 days just to close out this patch position.
Regarding today's funeral service income, it wasn't just that; it sounded like the market was moving slowly over the course of two days. Because when he started selling, everyone else started sucking up the price, and he didn't like what he wanted. If you go there, he went through an ordeal for two days.
Since he bet that big, ca n't he use all the profits earned this time to buy stocks again? Or, I have n't seen the details regarding the shareholder matters yet, so I don't know, but based on the statements not mentioned in the interview, he spoke like this... And I suppose that wasn't the case. Big...
ah, right. Then, shouldn't we be eating into the fund now and holding a general election? Having made such huge profits this time... but since he is such an ambitious person, for example, the current operator line or 10 trillion won won't change. He's someone who even saw 30, right? Is that enough? I don't think he will liquidate now; he seems like he wants to go much, much bigger.
These kinds of hedge fund managers... because of things I haven't seen myself... if we apply this to Korea, would there be anything like that? I think there might be some circulation. I think there might be, but there are people in Korea who don't really like things manifesting as cycles like this. Did we consider the scale?
3 1-pil Arc... really, something like 3 trillion ozone and things like that... I think there are people making money for a month on a smaller scale than that. 4. Of course, I think there are quite a few excellent people in Korea as well. Yes, looking at it again with ROM, there wasn't any, was there?
Mine is based on the assumption that this person sees the start very well. Eventually, normalization happens late, but I think the bank... no, that's how it will be, so he himself reaps the rewards, right? Right? So, the actual economy is that much The Yara market returns quickly, and the Yaz market returns even faster; there are two different problems that aren't being addressed.
So, since the market is essentially a shelf 0 of the world anyway, it seems they thought it would rise by reflecting this from their own perspective. Since you are someone who utilizes media well, I think it is difficult to think, "I have to go all out on my media again, ah ah ah, I have to do Hongdae d." In my opinion, I also think that for the next few months, we will probably be watching Phil Arc's mouth.
It is nice to see you teachers. You have been very quiet for several years. It is fun to see you talking on TV, and since it is actually a time for us to study regarding allocation and strategies, it is good. I think it would be good to talk about various strategies and English together again. Regarding strategies related to hedge fund managers, such as "4-Juseong," I think it would be good to continue talking about them little by little to bring good news.
Yes, today we had a time to look into the big inside of the market, and next time, I will come back with a more interesting topic. Thank you. Thank you. Uh uh
Comments 0