저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 변동성은 장기 투자자에게 기회이며, 주가 단기 변동과 기업 본질가치는 다르다. 하반기 성과와 업계 전망: 헤지펀드 성과가 여름에 부진했고 작년 수익은 높았다. 시장중립형 펀드가 월 -7%를 기록하면 재앙에 가깝다는 설명이다. 업계는 헤지펀드 개념을 더 잘 설명할 필요가 있다고 한다. 운용 철학: 퍼싱스퀘어는 본질적으로 롱온리 펀드이며, 허벌라이프 외에는 소수 집중 포지션을 수년간 보유한다(캐나디안퍼시픽 4년 이상, 하워드휴즈 약 7년). 다음 달이나 연말 주가는 예측하지 않고, 기업 가치는 1~2년 뒤 더 커진다고 본다. 캐나디안퍼시픽(CP): 유가·상품가격에 따라 주가가 출렁이지만 기업가치는 현금흐름의 현재가치이며, 단기 유가는 그 계산에 큰 영향이 없다. 이 변동성을 이용해 싸게 더 사고 있다. 행동주의와 공매도 논쟁: 본인은 행동주의 투자자도 장기 투자자라고 주장하며, 자신들이 과거 단기 투자자로 비난받았다고 언급한다. 공매도 리서치 공개를 '사설 규제자' 역할로 보는 기사에 반대하며, 휘트니 틸슨(랜버 리퀴데이터), 데이비드 아인혼(리먼), 짐 체노스(엔론) 사례를 들어 공매자의 공개 리서치는 건강한 현상이라고 주장한다. 허벌라이프 논쟁: 기사에 사실 오류가 있다고 주장하며, 허벌라이프 공개 프레젠테이션(350장 이상)과 리서치 자료 공개가 시장 투명성에 기여했다고 말한다. 허벌라이프가 101개 고아원을 운영한다는 주장은 회사 기부 프로그램(Casa Herbalife)에서 나온 것이며, 실제 운영 여부를 확인해야 한다고 하고 이를 세금 사기 의혹으로 연결한다. 리스크: 허벌라이프 관련 사기 의혹은 본인 주장일 뿐이다. 이 영상은 2021년 기준이며 미래 가격 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
those were great returns this summer has not been great for you nor as it had been for most of the hedge fund industry um and last year was you had huge returns what does the end of the year look like for you and what do you think it's going to look like for people in your business and and if it if it turns out to be negative what do you think it does to the business sure look i think you know people call us a hedge fund and they call the whole category i mean i think we need to do a few things one is from an industry perspective we need to explain a little bit better but a hedge fund is now there are some funds that are designed to not lose money almost in any market condition there's you know call it market neutral now i think they're very few that actually work but there's some that are successful in that model and a down seven percent month for a market neutral fund is like a disaster we're really principally a long-only fund with the exception of herbalife we own concentrated positions and companies we own them for years uh you know cp we've owned you know for four years we'll probably own it for many more years howard hughes was effectively on for seven years um so we don't i can't tell you where any of our stocks are going to be next month i mean it's you know certainly i can't even tell you where they're going to be at the end of the year what i can tell you is that the businesses we mondelez will be a much more valuable company you know a year from now than it is today and two years from now it's gonna be even more valuable and cp is gonna be a much more valuable company what's interesting about a company like cp you know stock price moves up and down based on oil prices and commodity prices but if you what is the value of a business it's the present value of the cash the business generates over the la over its life you know the price of oil in the short term doesn't have a particularly meaningful impact on that calculation but it seems to have a big impact on the stock price so volatility is an opportunity for long-term investors to buy more at attractive prices or in the case of cp they're buying more of the company well i almost feel like you're a split personality on the one hand you are a long-term investor on the other hand you are a big activist what do you can think of yourself as i mean activists are long-term investors i mean the not all of them not all of them look again i think there's a spectrum just like hedge fund managers mutual fund managers what we do is uh you know 10 years ago people accused us of being short-term well we have been in business for a year it's hard to prove that we're a long-term investor um you know when you're moving around 20 billion dollars it's hard to do that constantly buying and selling things you're much better off buying super high quality companies and making them better i think the most important thing about this article is he basically says uh short sellers who share their views publicly there's something very wrong with that uh it's effectively as you say a hedge fund becoming a private regulator as opposed to people talking up stocks that they don't visit right that's right and i think that is is absurd right look at lumber liquidators i'll take myself out of it right so whitney tilson goes public maybe a year ago and says this company is shipping formaldehyde-laced product that can cause cancer and harm ignored by the markets uh it took a a 60 minutes piece uh which whitney obviously was uh the protagonist in uh but they did their own research as well to ultimately alert the world stock went from over a hundred dollars to sheridan today it's 15.
the company's been forced to withdraw this product they're under investigation by a whole bunch of regulators i think the consumers have benefited the shareholders who sold when they when whitney went out with his piece have been big beneficiaries look at david einhorn and lehman right he came public and said this company is under capitalized they need to recapitalize lehman ignored him i think they continued to buy back stock you know they said david was market manipulation i think was the word that was used well had the company recapitalized lehman might have made it through the financial crisis shareholders might have gotten something out of their investment uh in lehman look at jim chenoweth on enron so i think that you know and then he's what's interesting the article and again there are lots of factual problems with the article which we can address but the this is an inherently healthy phenomenon what's interesting about the article is the last sentence he talks about is it right for sort of hedge fund managers operating behind closed doors and private meetings you know there's nothing close to our profits about our investment herbalife right we gave the most public most transparent presentation 350 slides with multiple presentations with a website with every piece of research we've done plus all the source documents isn't that an incredibly healthy thing you know for market transparency so i think it's i really disagree uh you know reporters can write whatever they want to write i respect that you know for someone who spent clearly an enormous amount of time 12 000 word article to come to i think an absurd conclusion uh disappointment i'll give you a little fun fact which might help people discern this company is operating fraudulently so among the facts that he reports in the story says herbalife is running uh 101 orphanages in 51 countries around the world now the only place for him to get that fact was from herbalife herbalife has something called casa herbalife and it's sort of their philanthropy what it is is they give a blender or two to a children's organization in the country and they sh this product that can't that distributors can't sell they check a box and herbalife donates the product to these 101 little places around the world and it's fed to small children i i don't know whether small children in africa should be drinking this uh you know protein shake from herbalife that's a medical question but the notion that they're running orphanages uh you know i just think that if i were a reporter i would focus on that i'd go go into these casa herbalifes like do it i wouldn't ask for herbalife to tell me where the model ones are located but i go see that one i think it's more tax fraud than for distributors than it is helping you
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