The Crash That Will Change Generation | Ray Dalio

요약 보기

Ray Dalio는 현재 경기사이클 후반부이며 1~3년 내 경기침체(디플레이션성 부채조정 포함)가 올 가능성이 크다고 본다. 중앙은행 정책 여력이 소진되고 있어 금리 인하·양적완화로 경기를 부양하기 어렵다고 주장한다. 연준이 경기 회복 시 인플레이션이 따라온다는 과거 공식을 잘못 적용했다고 지적한다. 부의 양극화와 정치적 양극화가 1930년대와 유사하게 심해지고 있으며, 이는 정책 불확실성과 사회적 갈등을 키운다고 본다. 미중 갈등으로 보호무역과 공급망 분절이 진행되어 효율성이 떨어지고 경제에 부담이 된다고 설명한다. 부채는 이미 과도하고 연금·의료 등 미적립 채무도 많아, 향후 적자 확대와 화폐 발행(부채의 화폐화)이 이어질 가능성이 높다고 본다. 이 경우 통화가치 하락 압력이 커진다. 따라서 포트폴리오는 한 자산에 집중하지 말고 분산해야 하며, 금은 분산 자산으로 유용하다고 권한다. 과도한 레버리지 매수(자사주 매입 등)가 취약 요인이라고 본다. 1929~1932년과 같은 대공황 수준의 경기 위축(약 10%대 GDP 하락, 두 자릿수 실업률)이 올 수 있다는 질문에 동의하는 취지로 답하며, 1930년대 대응으로 대규모 통화 발행이 있었다는 점을 언급한다. 전반적으로 방어적 분산투자와 현금·금 보유를 중시하는 관점이다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. over the years there are always Paradigm shifts you know one gets used to a certain type of environment and then there are periods of time where they shift to a very different kind of environment for example the 1920s were the exact opposite of the 1930s so the transition from the 20s to the 30s shocked people and so you come to periods of time where something has gone on for a long time such as the easing of monetary policy but also the quantitative easing that Paradigm that leveraging up for example can't continue but yet late in Cycles people extrapolate that which happened in the past and so there are these surprises I think there are always these Paradigm shifts and I think by stepping back and seeing history from a longer term perspective is very helpful I think the FED made a mistake and I think the FED understands that it made a mistake in assuming that this is a normal cycle and what they thought was if you pick up growth and lower unemployment you're going to produce inflation we're living in a different world now for various reasons a world of a lot of excess capacity a world of digitalization and so on in which that's not the big thing the big thing is the fact that we're approaching an end of the power of central banks to stimulate so the big thing is that we have a very big asymmetric risk if the economy turns down and we're late in a cycle so a downturn will come there is a lack of ability by central banks to be able to be stimulative and to reverse that and that's happening at a time where there's great wealth polarity so if the left and the right or the rich and the poor are at each other's throats at this time and this is when times are good imagine what it's going to be like when we have a downturn and there's an inability of central banks to respond to that so that shift in fed policy which came at the end of the year was uh necessitated by these weakening conditions around the world I think the key is of staying on top of these changes that we're talking about and responding to them first of all I think every portfolio should have the right amount of diversification in it gold is an important portfolio diversifier however let me be clear I don't think anyone should have a concentrated portfolio now okay so people can hone in on one comment I'm making I think that the notion of creating a balanced portfolio is the most important thing that they can do right now because wealth can't so much be destroyed as it can be shifted and so the world right now largely looks to me leverage long in other words there's been a lot of borrowing to buy assets to buy companies companies have borrowed money to buy their equities back and so on that whole move of Leverage long is where the market says I think there's a vulnerability what I'm saying is to that kind of a portfolio and that gold is one of the items that can diversify that I believe it always should be a certain part of a portfolio because there's a certain environment that it diversifies the portfolio well in a certain environment to worry about I also also think that that environment is riskier more likely recently now and that environment is one in which it becomes very difficult to stimulate the economy and there's a desire to depreciate the value of currencies now think about a bond is really the currency so when one owns a bond or one owns a debt instrument One is paid a pile of currency over a period of time when there are a lot of obligations like that a lot of debt or even unfunded obligations like pension obligations or Health Care obligations that the world has a lot of obligations and there's not an effective monetary policy to lower interest rates and stimulate as we're talking about there needs to be the printing of money the running larger deficits we're going to come into an environment I think in which they're going to be larger deficits that are increasingly monetized and in that kind of an environment the currencies are depreciated I think that in an evolutionary way over the next one two and three years that there will be a turn for the worse yes I think that there'll be an environment in which you're going to have excess capacity and debt restructurings and political issues entering into it I think there's going to be an effect a risk well of course the recessions are always inevitably on the question is when and I think that you're seeing this around the world you could see it through Asia you could see it in Europe and you could see it in the United States let's step back maybe and put the big factors in perspective I think and then put a Time Horizon to that I think the big factors are we are rather late in both the short-term debt cycles and the long-term debt Cycles meaning the capacity of central banks to produce stimulation it can be measured by their ability to lower interest rates significantly and do quantity date of easing and have that purchased we have a problem there okay that's a big thing but it's not an immediate problem it's a problem that is going to come in the next one or two years you're seeing it in Europe you see it in Japan and to some extent you're seeing in the United States in addition we have the wealth Gap and with that wealth Gap we have the classic political conflict very much like the 1930s in which that means that there's greater polarity greater Extremes in both of those and that will be play a role because if you change policies you will have a big effect for example when we cut the corporate taxes that puts stocks up because after taxes you get more so you pay more for your stocks that'll change so we have this polarity very much like the 1930s an inability to stimulate in the same way and a polarity in addition we have China as an emerging country challenging the United States as a established country and that creates a theme that creates a protectionist type of environment very much like the 1930s and it also has implications in terms of all sorts of conflict and frankly sand in the gears of the efficiency of the economy for example the supply lines in other words we built an economy in which there was interdependency and efficiency coming from supply lines working in a certain way now as we enter this environment of conflict there needs to be for personal security for the security of the countries there is a move toward Independence the United States says I don't want your Technologies and China says I can't depend on you giving me your Technologies and that changes that separation changes the nature of the dynamic which is also an economic influence those influences are very similar as I said to the late 1930s they will be dominant they are evolutionary influences but they'll play out over the next one two three years I think in creating a paradigm shift the world we're going to be in is a very different world than the world we were in the world we were in started in 2008 and had to do with central banks printing money and stimulating and that is reaching its limit and that's why I think we're going to see a paradigm shift so what do you mean by a depression okay something like happened in the 1930s so just to repay 1929 to 1932 there was a fall in the economy and a very double-digit unemployment rates and a magnitude of fall in the economy like about 10 percent do I think we're in that yes how was that dealt with 1933 um what they did is they printed a lot of money