저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 시장이 일직선으로 오르지 않으며 단기 조정 가능성을 인정하지만 장기 관점에서 낙관적이라고 말한다. 재정정책: 대선 전 추가 부양 실패로 급여세 납부 유예 행정명령만 존재하며, 재선 시 면제되지 않으면 내년 이중 납부 부담이 생긴다고 설명. 통화정책: 파월 연준은 물가가 2% 이상 올라도 즉각 긴축하지 않는 비대칭 대응을 시사하며, 이는 시장에 대한 안도 요인이라고 평가. 경기지표: 실업률이 14.7%에서 8.4%로 급락했고 자영업 고용과 근로시간이 증가해 V자형 회복 중이라고 봄. 소매 재고 부족과 수요 회복을 강조. 주택·자동차: 주택착공과 기존주택 판매가 전년 대비 20%대 중반 증가, 목재가격 3배 상승, 모기지금리 바닥권 가능성. 신차 판매는 연율 8.6백만대에서 15.2백만대로 회복했으나 2017년 정점 이후 전 세계 신차 판매는 10년 내 1/2~2/3 감소할 구조적 하락을 전망. 출연자 견해상 파괴적 혁신 기술(테슬라 등)에 대한 강세 입장을 유지하며, 자동차 산업의 장기 쇠퇴와 혁신 기업 선호를 시사. 리스크: 단기 조정 가능성과 파산 증가 가능성을 인정.
다듬은 글
a lot of investors especially those on robin hood and elsewhere a reality check hey this market doesn't move straight up what's up guys i'm back like i never left in this video we have kathy wood explaining to us exactly what happened to the stock market last week what she believes if the stock market is going to crash are we just going to have a slight pullback and she also gives really really solid pointers to people that are investing in robinhood retail investors so if you're somebody that really wants to learn from somebody that has a fund that perform really really good for the past few years really stick around and pay attention to her advice guys she covers important parameters that you need to pay attention to if you're somebody that is invested in the stock market what is going to be the future projections and what are the important things that we need to pay attention to moving forward guys so all this important information is in this video guys stay tuned alright guys so before you get into the video make sure you smash the like button if you're new to the channel make sure you subscribe if you have any questions any comments make sure you drop it in the comments section below for those of you who don't know kathy what is she is a ceo of arkhamvest and this fund is basically focused on disruptive and innovative technology so they have different etfs these are all the etfs that are involved in arc invest and they're heavily invested in tesla stock so the majority of the people know arc invest mainly because they're super bullish on tesla stock not only in recent times but even when tesla stock was not really popular on wall street when the stock was trading way below 300 500 they were the one that was super bullish and they saw that the stock really had potential and they're heavily invested in the disruptive technologies just like tesla and other companies so they've been performing really really well and they've been getting a lot of attractions recently so we're gonna go over exactly the ceo kathy wood explaining to us exactly what we need to pay attention to and she also gives advice to robinhood retail investors you guys so now let's get right into it uh and i just wanted to give you a sense of what we're thinking now we know the market's acting up a bit uh unnerving some people it actually has come a very long way we've hit uh record highs even uh in the global indices now the morgan stanley all world or msci all world index so so we've come a long way and uh we think that this will be that refreshes uh just to get to the bottom line there but we'll get into why we think that uh after we go through uh the normal drill here so we start with fiscal policy uh then monetary policy will then go to economic indicators some market indicators and then we'll talk about the correction and what we see from here and as you know we're very long term in our focus everything we do has a five-year investment time horizon associated with it uh whether it's our research or our portfolio so we'll talk about the world from that angle in the context of what's going on today so on fiscal policy uh well i guess congress couldn't get it together for for another relief package uh so we do have the executive order in place which does defer uh payroll taxes into next year now uh if the president is to get reelected i believe he's saying that there will be forgiveness of that of that deferral or at least he'll rally congress uh to try and get it um and if not then uh then workers will have to pay uh double taxes next year double payroll taxes in order to make up uh for this deferral um so it is perhaps bringing some activity into this year that might a little faster than might otherwise have been the case but it wouldn't be as powerful as uh forgiveness of payroll taxes both for employees and employers for the rest of this year nonetheless it is something on monetary policy well we got some more information from a fed chairman powell in the last week or so and it the the information was essentially uh you know we're very focused on both employment and inflation a little more emphasis than perhaps historically unemployment given where we are right now uh still a very high unemployment rate we'll get into that in a minute too given today's report but there was a very interesting nuance he introduced on the inflation side of the equation we thought he was heading in this direction essentially uh the policy response is going to be asymmetric if uh if inflation rises above two percent and based on the core pce deflator which is the inflation metric that the fed seems to like the best um it now is at one point three percent but if it were to go above two percent the fed essentially would allow it to continue to move above two percent in order to make up for lost time we've been under under two percent for so long and uh we're not even sure the measure is correct if if arc is right that is overstating inflation even the 1.3 percent given all the deflationary forces at work in the economy but at least the fed is saying if the measure itself crosses two percent uh the fed is not going to react right away and uh on the other hand if it drops below two percent let's say it goes above two percent and then drops below two percent it will act right away so that's uh that's what we mean by asymmetric response so again the fed is reassuring the markets uh that that it has their back uh you wouldn't know it from this week but uh the fed certainly is um willing to err on the side of easing too much so that's that's information and uh and that's important on the economic indicators today was an important day uh the first friday of every month usually is we got the unemployment report unemployment dropped back into the single digits i think i think most people are very surprised that that happened before the election at all we peaked at 14.7 as it turns out and uh we're down to eight point four percent of course we were below three percent uh in january of uh february so still high uh by in relation to where we were before but essentially will nearly cut in half which is a lot of work done in just a few months some of the other interesting statistics out of the report just to underline how strong the economy is and how much of a v-shaped recovery we're in household employment was up 3.7 million now household employment is a different metric non-farm payroll employment uh what the survey measures is what businesses tell them household employment is what households tell them and so it captures more small businesses and so what i think this is saying is even small businesses are are getting back to work and we know that small business formations uh new formations have surged so what we are seeing is sure a lot of bankruptcies and probably a lot more to come but what these entrepreneurs do is turn around and and start all over especially now that they are being treated more like larger corporations and can declare bankruptcy uh and get out of out from under their debts um and i i still think that's being underestimated in here in terms of the positive impact that uh that is having on the economy uh the work week also went up now going up one 0.1 uh hour doesn't sound like a lot but that's the equivalent of i think it's the it's it's disproportionate in terms of its impact on economic activity relative to uh the increase in uh employment and what we saw in the manufacturing sector was a three-tenths of an increase um three-tenths of an hour increase in the work week plus a one-tenth increase in overtime what this is telling us reinforcing is that businesses are scrambling to keep up with demand uh they have been way behind the curve they were behind the curve before the corona virus and they were going to have to make up for a lost time even if the coronavirus had not hit they became even more conservatively postured during the coronavirus and um and now now that the consumer is is really coming out flying uh the um they're they're having to scramble to to catch up i don't know if any of you are experiencing this but when i go to the supermarket i'm seeing not in the toilet paper shelves but in many other shelves they are not as full as they normally are at my supermarket it's a little village market they try to keep everything fully stocked and they can't uh so i do think there's a bit of a scramble here even even for food and so forth uh and then i don't have to tell you too much about housing because it's been heading hitting the headlines recently on both housing starts and existing home sales we are seeing uh increases on a year-over-year basis now now last year was fairly strong we were well pre-pandemic uh year-over-year against those comparisons existing home sales and uh housing starts are both up in the mid-20s percent range and uh we're see we've seen lumber prices triple so the raw material costs are going up we've seen we've seen the mortgage rates bottoming out here and these are two reasons for people who have been thinking about buying a second home or moving from the city into the suburbs and buying a home for them to to act now rather than waiting because raw material uh costs are going up fairly substantially think about that a tripling in the lumber costs and interest rates seem to be bottoming out they may bounce around the bottom here for a while but they may not uh so jump off the fence now i guess would be the message associated with that auto sales also have come back a lot uh more strongly than we anticipated uh and these are new auto sales the reason we are surprised is we saw with the bankruptcy of hertz uh a flood of used cars onto the market i think hertz alone was uh responsible for 700 000 of them and uh and uh what i've learned over this pandemic a statistic i didn't know and i i know a lot of economic statistics having having watched them for more than 40 years um the used car market is 40 million units per year uh and and what we were seeing was a significant weakness in used car prices but they came right back they came right back why is that they came right back even though there was a flood of cars entering the market uh because most people decided during the pandemic that they would not be taking mass transit for some time and um and so they decided to buy that second car so that has bolstered the used car market and it has also bolstered the uh the new car uh sales statistics so new car sales have gone from 8.6 million units at an annual rate to 15.2 and before this they were steady state a little north of 17 million so we are pretty close to where we were before now uh in our brainstorm today we we talked about auto sales and if you look at the statistics now it is clear that total new auto sales peaked in 2017 at 95 million units around the world and uh they have started what we believe will be a secular decline uh we think they could be cut in half uh maybe not quite half maybe by two-thirds in the next 10 years you
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