저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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Grantham은 AI 열풍이 버블이며 미국 증시가 역사적으로 높은 밸류에이션(실러 PER 약 34)과 과도한 기업 이익률 위에 있어 붕괴 위험이 크다고 주장한다. 기업 이익이 정상화되면 실러 PER이 45까지 치솟을 수 있으며, 최악의 경우 주가가 60% 하락할 수 있다고 경고한다. 그는 미국 주식을 피하고 일본·신흥국·품질주·기후솔루션·저평가 자원 등에서 기회를 찾으라고 권한다.
다듬은 글
invested in that first bubble of 1968 and managed to make a small fortune and lose it and after that I became a completely DieHard value man you will be shocked to know that investor Jeremy Grantham warns that US stocks are costly and likely to fall soon GMO co-founder and long-term investment strategist warns us all about the stock market so let's find out what this is all about Jeremy Grantham believes the excitement around artificial intelligence AI is a bubble that will burst and the US economy is headed for challenging times while the stock market has performed well recently Grantham argues that such strong performance with factors like low unemployment and high stock valuations has historically never been sustainable in the long run if you want to have a long impressive rally you want to see profit margins down unemployment up and pees low said the GMO co-founder and long-term investment strategist starting with very high prices is a pretty much guarantee that for the next 10 or 15 years you will be disappointed veteran investor Jeremy Grantham sees red flags in today's market he Compares it to past market meltdowns like the 1929 crash Japan's 1990s slump and the dot bubble burst he points to the Market's long surge low unemployment and high stock prices as reasons for concern similar to what triggered those past crashes Jeremy Grantham finds it strange that the US Stock Market seems particularly bubbly compared to the rest of the world especially considering he warned about a global asset bubble in 2022 which stocks did fall that year as he predicted he Compares this frenzy to historical bubbles like the Gold Rush where people got rich selling shovels to miners even though the miners themselves might not have needed them Grandam fears a similar bust could happen with AI potentially dragging the entire Market down he believes the market is overextended and when this mini bubble bursts it could trigger a broader correction Jeremy Grantham isn't buying the rosy picture of the US economy he thinks the strong job market and economic growth can't last forever especially when compared to the rest of the world while the US seems to be booming other countries are stressed about wars trade tensions and climate change Grantham believes the US is out of sync with the Global challenges it's important to note that the US market has proven Grandam wrong before continuing to climb despite his predictions of crashes surprisingly Jeremy Grantham is Raising red flags about the stock market predicting a potential crash that could wipe out a staggering 60% of its value if this happened it would be the worst crash since the Great Depression nearly a century ago Grantham has a history of successfully predicting market downturns and he believes today's market is the biggest bubble he's ever seen here's why his concerns are worth considering Grantham uses the Schiller PE ratio tool to gauge whether a market is overvalued the PE Ratio Compares a Stock's price to its earnings the Schiller PE ratio takes things a step further by using average earnings over the last 10 years smoothing out fluctuations caused by good and bad economic periods this helps get a more realistic picture of a company's typical profitability the ratio also considers inflation which can make profits look higher than they truly are Grantham says the current Schiller PE ratio is historically High suggesting the market is significantly overvalued this he argues increases the risk of a major correction imagine a company making $100 in profit this year but inflation is 9% that means everything costs 9% more including the things the company needs to run its business so even though they profit number went up to $19 they're not actually making more money they just need more money to keep things going at the same level this is why the Schiller PE ratio is important it takes a stock market index like the S&P 500 and divides its price by the average inflation adjusted earnings of the companies in that index over the past 10 years this Smooths out economic ups and downs to give a clearer picture of a company's typical profitability the scary part is that the Schiller PE ratio is near its highest point ever even higher than before the 1929 crash that led to the Great Depression back then the market lost a whopping 90% of its value over 3 years and it took 25 years for stocks to even recover to pre-crash levels but there's an additional wrinkle Grandam argues that even though the Schiller PE ratio is high the risk of a crash might be underestimated and if you ask why so it's because some people believe companies are actually making more money than ever before so the high Shiller PE ratio suggests the market is expensive but the argument that companies are extra profitable could be masking just how expensive it truly is this combination of factors is what has Grandam so worried about a potential crash imagine a company selling $100 worth of widgets they make a120 profit on that sale which means their profit margin is 20% profit divided by sales this profit margin tells you how efficiently a company turns sales into profits now let's look at the bigger picture grantham's chart shows average profit margins for S&P 500 companies over the last 50 years since 2,000 these margins have been climbing sharply by 2019 the average S&P 500 company was making almost double the profit it typically did over the previous 50 years Grantham argues that the current stock stock market bubble is inflated and ready to burst and he uses the Schiller PE ratio as evidence imagine the S&P 500 is like a price tag on a basket containing all the stocks in those 500 companies that price tag the snp500 is currently sitting at 5,000 however the true value of that basket depends on how much money the companies inside it are actually making to assess this we look at their average earnings over the last 10 years a adjusted for inflation to account for Rising prices this average is currently 147 here's the magic dividing the S&P 500 5,000 by the average earnings 147 gives us the Schiller PE ratio of 34 a high PE ratio means you're paying more for each dollar of a company's earnings the problem according to Grandam is that these earnings are unusually high right now he believes companies can't sustain these Rec profits and when they eventually come down the average earnings number in the PE Ratio will drop this would make the current market price 5,000 look much more expensive relative to the company's true earnings potential in simpler terms the bubble inflating the market right now is the expectation of these high profits continuing and when that expectation pops the market could see a significant correction but Grandam thinks the earnings number is too high he believes companies can't keep making such high profits and will eventually have to come down to more normal levels for example let's say he's right and earnings drop by 25% to 110 that would push the Schiller PE ratio to a whopping 45 the highest ever in US Stock Market history he believes the high-profit margins and expensive valuations make a crash more likely in short Grantham thinks the market is like a big bubble that's been inflated by companies making record profits sooner or later that bubble will burst just like bubbles always do eventually Jeremy expects weak profits a sluggish economy and a possible recession that's why he advises investors to avoid US stocks for now but grth them isn't all doom and gloom he sees opportunities in Japan emerging markets and even within the US specifically in quality stocks climate change Solutions and undervalued resources GMO grantham's investment fir recently launched a new ETF qlty focusing on highquality us companies while Grantham warns of long-term challenges like Ai and climate change he also highlights potential opportunities in tackling these issues he may be known for being cautious but he sees a chance for investors to find Value outside the traditional US market investor Jeremy Grantham paints a concerning picture of the US Stock Market predicting a steep decline due to inflated valuations he point points to a historically High Schiller PE ratio a metric indicating the market is overpriced compared to company earnings Grantham argues that soaring corporate profits are unsustainable and will eventually normalize triggering a correction he worries the current market exuberance resembles past bubbles that burst and caused significant losses while grantham's past predictions haven't always been on point his warnings highlight the importance of careful investing and considering alternative asset classes we hope you found the information valuable and insightful if you love the content and want to stay updated on more financial tips and strategies do like this video And subscribe to our Channel
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