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I think the safe assumption for an investor is that over the next 100 years the currency is going to zero that's my working hypothesis a very dangerous environment what brought in Hitler was the combination of the Yar inflation where they utterly destroyed the savings of the middle class in Germany followed by the Great Depression it was a one-w punch and Hitler came in Crazy demagogue with 40% of the votes and pretty soon we had a dictator hellbent for World War so the history is not pleasant and Germany was a very Advanced and Civilized Nation the Germany that Hitler took over I always say that the interesting thing about that was little Albert Einstein a little Jewish boy got his entire primary education with the insistence of the Catholic church in Germany now that is a very Civilized Nation so if you let your nation deteriorate too much what you get as a Hitler we proved it of course in a modern democracy in the age of canes you're going to get big government reaction the reaction this time was bigger than it's ever been before in the history of the United States they just threw money at the problem and they were probably right to fear what was going to happen and to be quite liberal and throwing money at it but they probably overdid it a little they threw so much money so fast that it's hard for the restaurants to get people to do the work but I don't criticize it it's hard to make these decisions Under Pressure well we have to be optimistic about the competency of our technical civilization But there again it's an interesting thing if you take the last 100 years most of modernity came in in that 100 years and in the previous 100 years that got another big chunk of modernity and before that things were pretty much the same for the previous thousands of years life was pretty brutal and short and limited and what have you no printing press no air conditioning no modern medicine no I don't think we're going to get things that were in what I call the real human needs think of what it meant to get say first you got the steam engine the steam ship the railroad and a little bit of improvement of farming and a little bit of improvement in Plumbing that's what you got the 100 years that ended in 1922 the next 100 years gave us widely distributed electricity modern medicine the automobile the airplane the records the movies the air conditioning in the South and I think what a blessing it was if you wanted three children you had to have six cuz three died in an infancy that was our ancestors think of the agony of watching half your children die it's amazing how much achievement there's been in civilization in these last 200 years and most of it in the last 100 years now the trouble with it is is is that the basic needs are pretty well filled in the United States the principal problem of the poor people is they're too fat that is a very different place from what happened the past they were on the edge of starving and what happens is it's really interesting is with all this enormous increase in living standards and freedom and diminishment of racial inequities and all the huge progress that has come people are less happy about the State of Affairs than they were when things were way tougher and that has a very simple explanation the world is not driven by greed it's driven by Envy and the fact that everybody's five times better off than they used to be they take it for granted all they think about is somebody else has having more now and it's not fair that he should have it and they don't that's the reason that God came down and told Moses that you couldn't envy your neighbor's wife or even his donkey I mean even the the old Je were having trouble with EnV and so it's built into the nature of things it's weird for somebody my age because I was in the middle of the Great Depression when the hardship was unbelievable I was safer walking around Omaha in the evening than I am in my own neighborhood in Los Angeles after all this great wealth and so forth so and I I have no way of doing anything about it I can't change the fact that a lot of people are very unhappy and feel very abused after everything's improved by about 600% because there's still somebody else who has more think of the pretentious expenditures of the rich who in the hell needs a real Rolex watch so you can get mugged for it you know I mean yet everybody wants to have a pretentious expenditure and that helps Drive demand in our modern capitalist Society my advice to the young people is don't go there the hell with the pretentious expenditure I don't think there's much happiness in it but it does Drive the civilization we actually have it drives the dissatisfaction how will this all play out and what's the best advice you have for individual investors to optimally deal with the negative impact of inflation other than owning quality equities well it may be that you have to choose the least bad of a bunch of options that frequently happens in human decision making and the mongers have Berkshire stock Costco stock Chinese stock suu a little bit of Daily Journal stock and a bunch of apartment houses do I think that's perfect no do I think it's okay yes I think the great lesson from the MERS is you don't need all this damn diversification that's plenty of you're lucky if you've got four good assets I think the finance professors and the sell the idea that perfect diversification is professional investment if you're trying to do better than average you're lucky if you have four things to buy and to ask for 20 is really asking asking for egg in your beer it's very few people have enough brains to get 20 good Investments it's going to be way harder for the group that's graduating from college now for them to get rich and stay rich and so forth going to be way harder for them than it was for my generation think what it cost to own a house in a desirable neighborhood in a city like Los Angeles I think we'll probably end up with higher income taxes too and so on no I I think the investment world is plenty hard and I don't think the in my lifetime 98 years it was the ideal time to own a diversified portfolio of Common Stocks that updated a little by adding the new ones that came in like the apples and the alphabets and so forth and I'd say the people got maybe 10 or 11% if you did that very intelligently before inflation and maybe 9% after infl that was a marvelous return no other generation in the history of the world ever got returns like that and I don't think the future is going to give the guy graduating from college this year nearly that easy in investment opportunity I think it's going to be way harder some people are gifted enough that they can invest in hard to Value difficult things other people I think would be very wise to have more modest Ambitions in terms of what they choose to deal with so I think you have to figure out your level of skill or the level of skill your adviser has and that should enter the equation but to everyone who finds the current investment climate hard and difficult and somewhat confusing I would say welcome to adult life
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