저자: JustaDudeWhoInvests · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼이 과거 매도했던 넷플릭스를 재매수했다고 공시됨. 가격 인상과 구독자 성장으로 실적이 견조하며 밸류에이션(PER 약 24배, 선행 22.4배)도 역사적 저점 수준이라 장기 매력이 크다는 주장. 스포츠·팟캐스트·게임 확장으로 해지율 우려는 낮다고 봄. 발표자는 79.5달러를 진입가로 제시하며 현재 주가 약 77.5달러 부근에서 매수 보유 중. 다만 경쟁 심화 등 리스크는 인정함.
다듬은 글
So, guys. Bill Ackman bought Netflix shares. Yesterday, he disclosed information about his position on the Pershing Square platform. He announced that he had bought the company, and it's shocking for several reasons. If you recall, Bill Ackman sold Netflix a few years ago when the stock was down and the business was seeing its first decline in subscribers.
It threw him off track a bit , and today people often make fun of Bill Ackman for this, which, to be honest, I don't think is good or fair, because every investor makes mistakes. If you invest, trade, or work in the market, you will make mistakes . So it's not worth pointing to just that one event, forgetting about all his other great investments, because he significantly outperformed the market over time.
So, to be honest , I don't think it's fair. But he did announce his position at Netflix. And, to be honest , I really respect him for that, because many people, having sold shares at a loss, don't want to buy them again at a higher price. This is a kind of psychological moment . But Bill Ackman doesn't care .
He says the business is attractive, which is why he came back. So, Netflix is a pretty interesting case. This is a company I keep in my portfolio, and you can check it out on Blossom Social absolutely free. And if you follow him, you know that this was my recent purchase. When the stock price dropped below $70, and especially to $60 or so after the earnings report, I bought this company.
And I find it attractive in the long term as well . One thing about Netflix: most of their financial performance growth is likely driven by price increases, which is what we can see here. I asked Google to provide an AI overview, and it showed how the cost of a Netflix subscription has increased over time.
We see that in 2011 the price was $8 per month, then it increased to $9.99, and in 2015-16 it increased to $11.99. And then, in 2019, the standard rate increased to $12.99 per month, another dollar, and they introduced a premium tier. They continued to raise prices to $ 13.99, $14.99, and $15.50 per month in 2022.
They continued to raise prices and introduced an ad tier in 2023, and recently raised prices again and started cracking down on password sharing. So, the premium subscription now costs $26.99 per month, the standard without ads is $19.99 per month, and the standard with ads is $9 per month. So you see the company continuing to raise prices, right?
And for Netflix, we can look at the data in Qualtrics, which I like to use for stock analysis. The thing about Netflix is that when we talk about raising prices, it would be a problem if the company's subscriber base wasn't growing. But if we look at their overall subscriber graph, which they recently reported for the fourth quarter of 2025 .
They haven't reported back yet. As you know, they used to disclose this data quarterly, and then stated that they would only announce it when significant results were achieved. So, 325 million subscribers, and the company continues to show revenue growth. As you can see, we have been able to scale over the past 10 years, the company continues to grow revenue at a very rapid and confident pace, and we have seen consistent growth over the past 12 months.
So we don't see these price increases leading to mass cancellations yet . This is an important point when it comes to Netflix. It is worth noting that the company appears to have the right to set prices. And if we look at some of their valuation multiples, like 24 to one on earnings and 22.4—a forward rate.
That's not a high valuation for a company like Netflix, or a company whose net income is growing faster than these multiples. This is not an expensive estimate. Earnings per share continue to grow at a very rapid pace, so this is not an expensive valuation at all . We see that the return on capital is increasing, they are buying back shares, and at their valuation of 24 to one relative to earnings, this is essentially the lowest price Netflix has ever been.
We see that over time this company has generally been worth more, especially if you look at the last 10 or 5 years. We see that stocks were generally valued at a higher price. And if we go back to 2022, that's when Bill Ackman sold the shares when they were actually cheaper. But if you remember, during that period there were many who complained about Netflix, saying that it was a declining business, they were losing subscribers, and they had nothing unique.
Just a lot of hype around Netflix. And so, you know, I can't say that if I bought Netflix stock, I wouldn't sell it, because if people like Bill Ackman are getting out of it, maybe I would be worried too. But you see the valuation is similar and they are still growing their subscriber base. They don't have the same problem with subscriber churn.
The company is also directing capital toward share buybacks, planning to purchase nearly $10 billion of shares in the second quarter of 2026. So I think the stock is feeling good. And if we do a simple discounted cash flow (DCF) calculation, making some assumptions based on their earnings, we see their trailing 12-month earnings of $3.18.
And we can take the expected growth rate of earnings per share. I actually expect it to be higher, but I like to be conservative with a 15% growth rate. I think it will be closer to 20, given the margin expansion and share buybacks, because that's earnings per share. But let's take 15. And let's take a 25 multiple to earnings, which I also think is a bit conservative, considering they've typically traded around 30.
So let's stop at 25. And over the next 5 years, we want to get a 15% return. This is roughly my target of 15% with a margin of safety . So, if you're up for it , the price of entry is 79.50. And that's lower than today's price. We can look at today's price. Again, 79.50. Remember this admission price.
The company is currently trading at $77.50. And I think she grew up a little because of Bill Ekman. As we can see, after the last earnings report, the stock fell to $67.60. But since then, they have rallied a bit over the past month, particularly last week, thanks to the aforementioned growth through Bill Ackman.
So, um, yeah. So, Netflix , in my opinion, is an attractive company. This is a company that I personally buy for my portfolio. I believe that the company has the power to set prices. We can also look at other metrics, like revenue by region, as the company tries to expand internationally. In the United States, they continue to grow very, very steadily.
And in other regions, such as Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the company is growing. We see them growing in Latin America as well. It seems to me that the Asia- Pacific region is the only one where everything is a bit ambiguous. No, they grow in every region. So, um, yeah, I just think this company is also turning into a real entertainment giant.
They are not focused on just one thing. If we return to Twitter, we will see a new page; I don't know exactly when it was created , but it's a new Netflix page. Um, they have Netflix Sports now. And the company is not only involved in sports. They now have sports, podcasts if you pay close enough attention, and even games.
So the company is developing many areas that, in my opinion , will help people keep their subscriptions longer. Um, as for the target audience, for example, I have a Netflix subscription. I enjoy watching a lot of their shows. I think "The Beach" is the best TV series of all time. And if I wanted to cancel my subscription and they were broadcasting the game , I wouldn't do it .
I would wait for the game. I like watching football, basketball, baseball, hockey, UFC, right? Um , and now they have podcasts and games. Let's say my friends and I like to play games on Netflix— maybe that's another reason not to cancel our subscription . They continue to release new movies and series.
Overall, I think they are becoming an entertainment giant, and that is definitely the main thesis. I think you'll see this more and more often. Of course, we have to see how this story and business will develop, right? Everything could go downhill, that's entirely possible. There are also pessimistic forecasts regarding Netflix, such as increased competition.
As with any investment, there is always risk. Of course, this is not financial advice. There is a disclaimer in the description, but personally I find the company attractive and buy its shares. You can check out my Blossom or my other projects at the link in the description. There is a lot of interesting things for you there . Thank you for watching. I wish everyone a wonderful day, bye .
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