브릿지워터 어소시에이츠의 창립자 레이 달리오(Ray Dalio)는 최근 블룸버그 인터뷰에서 AI 거품은 결국 꺼질 것이라고 경고했습니다.

요약 보기

달리오는 AI 같은 위대한 기술 변화는 과잉투자로 거품을 만들기 마련이라고 봤다. 현재 지표(과다 보유, 심리 등)는 2000년과 1929년 수준에 가까워지고 있다. 거품 자체보다 거품이 꺼지는 시점이 중요하며, 부(wealth)를 현금으로 바꿔야 할 때(부채, 세금 등) 붕괴가 온다. 기술 자체는 생산성에 긍정적이지만 부의 격차를 키운다. 거품 측정 지표를 갖고 있으며 시장 타이밍에 활용한다고 언급했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I would kind of love to combine these ideas because on one hand you have the spending we're already doing. War has been incredibly expensive. That's more spending from the US. And then there's AI and the desire for AI sovereignty. Debt markets are being flooded with AI. Alphabet raising their debt their equity offering to 85 billion dollars.

02. Are you concerned that there's a crowding out happening in this market? Can we handle that amount that's coming? All great technology changes um produce bubbles. And the reason they produce bubbles is because nobody can get get it exactly right. Okay, there you have to either spend a ton of money to capture your market share and so on or and you and don't worry about whether it's too much or not.

03. Or you don't spend enough money and you lose your market share. And it's very imprecise with a lot of competition. Okay? And then when people bet on the technology which I'll bet on the technology, but they think that buying the stocks is betting on the technologies which is a different thing because the stocks can be expensive and so on.

04. That's that's a problem. And what happens is when wealth grows a lot relative to incomes, I want to distinguish wealth from incomes. Okay? Wealth is you can create wealth very easily in the following way. You say I'm going to have a raise 50 billion dollars 50 million dollars on a billion dollar valuation.

05. Okay? That's counted as a billion dollars of money and now you're a billionaire, but they only put up 50 million. Okay? And so wealth you cannot spend wealth. Wealth is you have to sell wealth to get money cuz you can only spend money. So when there's a lot of wealth relative to the amount of money there is, there is a vulnerability and bubbles burst when money when wealth needs to be converted into money.

06. Often that Often that's because of debt, but it could be for anything. It could be for wealth taxes, for example. Supposing you put in wealth taxes, then those people have wealth are going to have to sell some of that wealth to pay taxes. That dynamic that I'm talking about accompanies the miracle technologies that over a period of time have wonderful implications for productivity.

07. So, I don't think it it has a problem with productivity. I do think not but productivity it has a big wealth gap implication. A very small percentage of the population is going to do unbelievably and a lot of people won't. So, what do we do? Can we work together politically to deal with those issues and how do you I do not believe I'm not optimistic on us working together to solve social problems.

08. So, I I I think it is, yes. And then that moment there's always the issue of a bubble and we can measure a bubble. I have indicators and that they there's how many people are over owned, what's the sentiment, a lot of indicators for bubble and we are right now rising close to closer to not at the same level in 2000 and same level in 1929.

09. But wait, wait, wait. The thing about it is there's two parts to it. There's quote a bubble and then there's the pricking of the bubble. And the pricking of the bubble happens when there's a need for wealth to be sold to get the money. Like normally in a dynamic of um a debt problem. Okay, if you take Japanese bubble, take the 29 bubble, take the 2000 bubble.

10. All of them have an element of, you know, tightening money to to because it can't go on forever. It'll find its bubble. The question is how long you let the bubble go before there's the pricking. So, in order to do the market timing to know how to market time, it requires both the understanding of the bubble and the looking for the pricking.

11. And the pricking is the converting of wealth into money because I need money in order but I have wealth but so I have to sell some of the wealth in order to get the money. That's how it works. That dynamic is following that kind of path even though it's a wonderful technology that'll have great Ray, we could talk about this all day.