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This morning, Bitcoin reached $80,393. This is its first time above 80,000 since January 2026. At the same time, Katie Wood, the boss of Ark Invest, has published an analysis saying that Bitcoin can reach $730,000 per coin by 2030. And the Chuck Norris of Bitcoin, Michael Saylor, has just announced that he is stopping buying this week for only the second time this year.
We have three contradictory signals, one single market. Today, we decipher them all. Hey Mindset team, I hope you're all doing well. Today is a busy day. Firstly, because it's been a long time since I made a video, but also because a lot of things are happening. Bitcoin breaking a major psychological level, we have a long-term report that is generating discussion and Saylor putting things on hold.
As usual, this video is not investment advice, but your compass to read what is really happening this morning. For those who are joining us and are new to this channel, we have only one rule: we take the crypto news, we remove the jargon, we keep the essentials. And it's not to tell you what to do, but so that you understand what's happening and that you decide for yourself, because that's obviously the most important thing.
Without further ado, let's go . Let's start with the number of the day. This morning, at the opening of Asian markets, Bitcoin reached $80,393. This is the highest level since January 2026, i.e., for 3 months. For what ? We had three things that aligned at the same time this weekend. The first element is that Iran sent a 14-point peace proposal to the Pakistani mediator on Friday, May 1st.
It's not a signed agreement, far from it because apparently hostilities have resumed a bit today, but it's the most formal proposal since the start of the war in February. Oil prices reacted immediately, falling from $111 to $100. And when oil prices fall, inflation decreases, and therefore Bitcoin rises.
The second element is Friday. Bitcoin ETFs saw $630 million in inflows in a single day. This figure is important because it reverses the negative trend of the previous week where 490 million were released. The institutional investors did not flee; they waited for the geopolitical signal to return en masse.
The third element is technical. Bitcoin has just crossed back above what analysts call the ball market support band for the first time in just 6 months. This is a price zone that is defined by two long moving averages. I know it sounds very jargon-filled, but don't worry, I'll explain. But when Bitcoin is above, we are in a bull market and when it is below, we are in a danger zone.
Imagine a highway with a central stripe painted on the ground. As long as your car is to the left of that line, you are going the right way. If you go to the other side, you'll be going against the flow of traffic . Bitcoin has just crossed back above this band for the first time in 6 months. Technical analysts around the world noticed this signal at the same time this morning.
The next technical target is at $83,000, which corresponds to the average acquisition cost of all US Bitcoin ETFs. Above 84000, there is what is called a CME gap, a price zone that has never been filled since the end of 2025 and which acts like a magnet. If Bitcoin closes a full day above $82,000, analysts expect an acceleration towards the $92,000 to $98,000 zone .
The second signal of the day is therefore Cathie Wood, whom I mentioned in the introduction, who is the founder of the Ark Invest fund, which has published an annual Big Ideas report. And his figures on Bitcoin have generated a lot of discussion. Ark Invest predicts that Bitcoin could reach a market capitalization of $16 trillion by 2030.
And a quick reminder for the newer ones among us, market capitalization is the total value of all Bitcoins in circulation. Today, it's around $1600 billion. Ark Invest tells us that the value can be multiplied by 10 within 4 years. If we divide 16 trillion by the maximum 21 million Bitcoins that will exist , we arrive at more than $730,000 per Bitcoin.
Even though, of course, the 21 million will not have been mined by then. It's not a promise, it's a projection based on three assumptions. The first hypothesis is that Bitcoin captures 40% of the gold market. Gold is currently worth approximately $24 trillion. For centuries, people have kept gold to protect their wealth against inflation.
Ark bets that Bitcoin, which is scarce, portable and not confiscable, will gradually replace part of this function. 40% of the gold market transferred to Bitcoin represents approximately $9.6 trillion in value. The second hypothesis is that institutional investors will include Bitcoin in their portfolios.
There are approximately $200 trillion in financial assets worldwide. If only 2.5% of these assets are allocated to Bitcoin, that represents an additional 5 trillion . The third hypothesis is that states and companies continue to accumulate Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. So Michael Saylor's company already holds 818,000 Bitcoin.
The United States and several other countries have started buying them. Cathie Wood sees it a bit like how the internet has transformed communication. In 1995, saying that everyone would send emails and that companies like Amazon would be worth trillions of dollars seemed completely absurd. And it wasn't because it wasn't possible, but because it required imagining mass adoption over a long period of time.
Cathie Wood's $730,000 Bitcoin is exactly the same type of projection. It's not a guarantee, it's more of a direction. The key takeaway from this story, whether you believe his words or not, is that this isn't the first time ARK has made this type of projection. In 2020, he was already predicting Bitcoin would reach $500,000 by 2025.
Bitcoin has not reached that level. The reality is that, of course, nobody knows exactly when or at what price these projections will come true. What matters is the direction and the mechanisms that justify it. And what she says, even if in my opinion these are rather optimistic assumptions, are things that will ultimately prove true.
That's my personal opinion. Not financial advice, of course. But [grunt] that's also why I do DCA on Bitcoin every day now, as you know, I buy 50 dollars. And for now , honestly, I'm quite satisfied with my bet. We started it around 70,000. I bought quite a few around 65. And that's precisely the power of DCA, I had absolutely no idea which direction Bitcoin was going in.
But of course, I believe in it in the extremely long term, so I had no problem investing in it. And if you want to do the same thing, that's why I use Kraken, which is one of the most secure platforms in the world. It has never been hacked before. It is extremely simple for beginners. And since Kraken is the channel's partner , if you use the link in the description, you'll get 15 euros offered for any investment of 100 euros.
And speaking of DCA, the third signal of the day, which surprised the markets the most this weekend, was that on Sunday evening, Michael Saylor posted a fairly short message on X: "No buying this week. Back to work next week." As I mentioned earlier, his company holds over 818,000 Bitcoins purchased at an average cost of $75,537.
The current value is approximately $64 billion. For months, Saylor had been buying every week, without exception. This break is only the second one this year. And so, naturally, everyone asked themselves the question, "Why ?" The official reason is quite simple: Stratégie is publishing its quarterly results tomorrow, Tuesday, May 5, and during the period preceding a results publication, the managers of a publicly traded company are prohibited from buying or selling assets that are related to their company.
It's just a legal rule called the quiet period. So, what's most interesting about this information is what you'll reveal the results of tomorrow. Wall Street expects a loss of $3.5 per share for the first quarter. Why a loss when Bitcoin has? You must be wondering. Because US accounting forces the company to record the value of their Bitcoin at the market price every quarter.
In the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin fell by more than 20% for several weeks. As a result, Stratégies must record an accounting loss of $14.5 billion, even though the Bitcoins are still there. What you need to understand is that this loss is not real. The strategy did not sell a single Bitcoin. These are actually the DCA bosses I was telling you about earlier.
And now that Bitcoin has climbed back above $80,000, those accounting losses will turn into explosive gains in the next quarter. Peter Schiff, the most famous critic of Bitcoin, I do n't know if you know him, he's the opposite of Michael Saylor, he took the opportunity to describe Strategy and its STRC, its financial product that pays dividends, as a Ponzi scheme.
But I will just note that Peter Schiff has been predicting the death of Bitcoin since 2011. Bitcoin was at $3 at And the last point, for those who are in the United States, tomorrow Tuesday, the Consensus 2026 conference begins in Miami. It's the world's largest crypto conference. Trump is expected to speak, Mike Tyson, Cathy Wood, the CEO of Tether will be there and 40,000 other participants as well.
Why am I talking to you about a conference in an analysis video? Because there is a historical pattern that very few people are aware of. Since 2019, Bitcoin has consistently risen in the days leading up to Consensus and corrected in the days following. It's called "sell the news" after all the announcements that are going to be made.
The mechanism is quite simple. The media will talk about Consensus, enthusiasm rises, prices rise, people buy for fear of missing out, then the conference starts, everyone sees that the announcements are less spectacular than expected and people who had bought in anticipation start selling. Bitcoin is at $80,000 this morning, Consensus starts tomorrow, strategic results will be released tomorrow evening.
These are three simultaneous events that could create volatility in both directions between now and Thursday. Does that mean I'm going to? Of course not. On the contrary, if it falls again, it's an opportunity to get more. Does that mean you should panic if Bitcoin falls by 5% this week? Neither. It just means that you need to know where you are in the strategy and if you have a long-term plan with DCA, these short-term fluctuations do not change your thesis.
So, tell me everyone, what do you think of these 80,000? Do you think we're back above that level for good, or is it just a bull run? Have you started investing again or are you simply continuing your current investments? Tell me everything in the comments. If you want to learn more about the upcoming Ethereum update for Clan Amsterdam that will certainly revolutionize the token, click on the video that appears.
Until then, friends, take care of yourselves. I wish you all excellent investments . It was Mansour. Peace.
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