저자: DavidLincoln · 외국인
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결론: 빌 그로스의 게임스탑 공매도 사례를 설명하며, 이미 자신은 GME 숏을 유지 중이고 단기 하락을 예상한다는 취지의 방송. [빌 그로스의 게임스탑 옵션 매도] 그로스는 주가 200달러 부근에서 행사가 250달러 내외의 콜옵션을 무방비(naked) 매도한 것으로 소개됨. 만기 시 ITM이면 주식을 인도해야 하므로 실질적으로 공매도와 같다고 설명. 주가가 상승해 평가손이 1,000만 달러까지 났고, 이후 주가 하락 시 청산 후 더 높은 가격대에서 재진입했다고 언급. [진행자의 GME 포지션] GME 숏을 보유 중이며 점차 이익 실현 후 포지션을 줄일 의향을 밝힘. 다만 최근 매매 성과가 좋지 않았다며 따라 하지 말 것을 권유. [시장 전반 및 VIX 관련] UVXY 액면분할 발표가 임박했을 것으로 예상. VIX 텀스트럭처 콘탱고 약 7.85%, 스프레드가 평소보다 넓어 좁혀질 것으로 봄. [룰루레몬] 당장 의견은 없다고 하면서도 1년 차트상 275~400달러 박스권에서 횡보할 가능성을 언급. 경영진이 잘해온 점을 들어 공매도에는 신중할 것을 권고. [기타 종목] 테슬라는 언급만 있고 구체적 방향 없음. 비트코인은 관망(매매 안 함). [정치와 투자] 진행자는 정치 성향을 투자에서 분리할 것을 강조하며, 특정 기업 불매를 매매에 연결하지 말 것을 권고. [기타] 스티뮬러스 체크가 밈주식 랠리로 이어질 수 있을지 언급하며, 게임스탑이 350달러 고점을 돌파할지 지켜보겠다고 함.
다듬은 글
all right let's check out bill gross and talk about his trades in gamestop and discuss gamestop and the rest of the market coming up next on the short vault show live i'm trading gamestop in the january short squeeze tell me about that um well i got in too early um you know i got in with options like a good robin hood trader i guess and uh selling options not buying options selling calls right around the 150 200 dollar level all right so i don't want to get um in trouble for rebroadcasting someone else's content but um here's a little bit of uh clip from this i believe it's uh bloomberg interview with bill gross pimco co-founder and he was talking about how he uh made money in gamestop you can i'll put a link in the description if you want to check out the whole thing but essentially what he said was once the stock got up around 200 and something the first time he sold some calls at the money call so this is a guy who's a billionaire right so for him selling caught naked calls he's got plenty of uh you know money in his account to weather the storm so to speak so he's not going to get a tap on the shoulder like maybe you or i would saying okay well if gamestop is trading 200 and now if all of a sudden it goes to 500 he's not going to be forced to cover a and b he can put up the margin required to sell a bunch of naked calls in gamestop right and the interviewer seems a little bit confused about options and he's saying oh well you know you're only selling calls you're not actually short the stock and bill gross tries to kind of correct him and say well actually if you know if the calls end up um in the money at expiration then i will have to um i'll be forced to actually um you know give up the stock at those prices so i will end up being short the stock if uh you know if expiration comes and these calls are in the money so essentially you when you're selling a naked calls in the situation like this it's the same thing as being short the stock really you're getting a little bit more premium but each call represents a hundred shares short that you're going to be responsible to deliver if the stock is trading above the strike price of the calls you're selling so just as a quick example let's take a look at where some of these calls that he might have sold closed uh yesterday so if we go out let's go out to uh an april expiration here so these april calls that expire in 23 days if he i think he was talking about somewhere around the 250 strike so kind of selling at the money calls when the stock was around here so 250 calls right here went out 56 bit at 61.
so let's just call it sixty dollars right so each call 60 dollars so you times that by 100 right so each call is worth essentially uh six thousand dollars right um so these calls um right now stocks only two hundred so that's all essentially what you call fluff or there's no intrinsic value to these calls right so if for example we were looking at the 200 call stock went out 208 so if we were looking at the 200 call the intrinsic value of the 200 call with stock 208 is eight dollars right it's the you take the strike price of the crawl you subtract it from the price of the stock and you get the intrinsic value but these calls are out of the money thus they have no intrinsic value at the moment and so you're collect you're going to collect six thousand dollars for each call you sell if the stock is lower than that on expiration um and this is a great strategy if you have the money to back you up in your account you're able to cover the uh cost of selling these calls and um you're able to ride this out until such a time as it's profitable now if you sold one of these calls and we got towards expiration right the ones we're looking at they expire in 23 days if you sold these calls and stock was still hot you know above this price if stock was above this price around expiration you could roll this call out you could buy this one back and sell one a couple months out for example if we were to look out to july the same call the 250 call is going to be trading for a lot higher price and now it's and you know 90 instead of 60 or 95 instead of 60.
and um but you've got you've got to you know stick it out and wait that extra time to uh realize your profitability and close it out or have them expire worthless but that's kind of where he's coming from he said that you know he sold the calls on the initial run up and then um covered them when it went back down so if we go back and look at this um let's go out to just look at it like that so you know this initial run up he saw the calls when the stock was around 250 and it went way against him he said he was down 10 million at one point and then when the stock went back down to this like 40 level he covered his position right he got out now he didn't buy you know he didn't let the calls expire worthless he bought him for some price way lower than what he sold him for and then when we had this other pop again i'm not sure exactly where he sold more but he said he he sold more and reset his position going short again so it's kind of always interesting when people reveal their position and a lot of these big guys they don't often reveal their position but for some reason this is what makes a lot of of um this like robin hood retail crowd angry that people like this make money but you know we're all trying to make money and anybody who's willing to get in there and take a risk deserves to make money if their risk works out whether it's this bill gross guy or if it's just you or me um kind of makes sense to me all right so where are we right now well gamestop um it looks like it's up about i don't know seven dollars before the open here we'll see if that holds it's funny there's a bunch of articles online about how gamestop is down although it's currently up right now then um you know we're very close to an announcement with uvxy for a reverse split uh uvxy trading in the sevens let's see where we are right now did it fall off my it didn't fall off my oh no here it is yeah it traded down to sev it closed 706.
so we are looking for them to announce the reverse split coming up very soon let's see or if they didn't yeah they still haven't announced it it says on the six figures website they're expecting it 13 july i would not be surprised if we got the announcement for this this week i would not be surprised at all because this is usually when they announce it right so i would be looking and ready for them to announce the split in uvxy very soon volatility has come in quite a bit we're still flirting with that 20 level in the vix take a quick look here at the term structure and see what we'll see and if i just get out of the way here so um term structure currently 7.85 percent contango um nice spread right it's a very wide spread between spot and the m1 as we come into expiration here and the new month starting with a very wide spread so we we expect this to come and you know the usually it's like two to two and a half points wide on expiration um this is wider than usual so kind of interesting there and i expect that spread to narrow usually what happens is i'll go back to that in a second but usually what happens is we're gonna see the spread narrow and contango actually build quite a bit i was just looking at this to see what this says right here so it's showing only uv xy made up only yesterday as we come into as we uh you know just had expiration um only consisting of the april future right as the march future rolled off that's kind of where we are if we do look at the futures here we can see uh once again um not a super eventful expiration and um vxx uv xy all at low levels right now k s e i will short lulu okay let's take a look at lulu um i have no opinion on lulu right now i know that you know it was a one of the darlings of the whole covic crisis and it was bit up because people you know they sat at home and spent their stimulus checks on lulu and other stuff during the covet thing but now as everything starts to open up people may be moving on to other other issues you can see lulu has been i'd say somewhat sort of stagnant lately here's the chart over the last year you can see this big run up here and then we've kind of just stayed in this 275 to 400 range and i wouldn't be surprised if we just hang out in this range for quite a while now um it seems on the face of it with lulu like oh wow these people make high-end you know yoga pants how could it be such a valuable company but you know management has done a really good job with this company and the stock has performed incredibly well it seems um amazing how well it's done but um i'm i would be careful about shorting this one just because they have um impressed the market over and over again and they seem to have good management going on uh tesla yeah i don't um but you know it's up to you obviously i i'm not um telling you what to do at all uh bitcoin i remain on the sidelines i know i have several followers who are really into bitcoin and have made great money from that congratulations but i i remain on the sidelines on that one i do still have the short in gme although um i'm looking to take profits and slowly uh move out of that at you know assuming we continue lower pretty quickly uh casey i will short any other right wing company i would encourage you to um separate your politics from trading because you know we don't want to vote with our trades if you want to vote vote at the voting polls and but voting with our trades you can get into some trouble because um you know with trading we just want to make money whether it's where it's from it doesn't matter um and if we start to put politics in there um then you get in a situation where you're like well am i willing to lose money to stick by my beliefs and you want to get into that kind of like um contradictions in your mind as far as i'm concerned so i would be careful with that um people who know me know that i am a lefty and i i you know i uh i'm on the left side as far as politics but um but i encourage um all political views on this channel a b um i don't believe that like half the country is right and half the country is wrong no matter which side you're on and c i try to leave politics out of trading when we're looking at trading we're looking at the math of it we're looking at momentum things like that and um i understand when people say okay well you know i i have a 401k or something or i have some sort of savings plan i can decide which stocks i want to put that savings plan in and in that case you know if you're sort of a sort of activist then you might say well i don't want to invest in this particular you know if there's two companies that pretty much do the same thing but one and pretty much have the same prospects but one of them i don't agree with their politics then you know you might say well invest in this one instead of the other that is different than just saying okay well i don't like this company because they're you know the i know let's take goya i don't know if goya trades but remember goya was um the president president trump uh the goya guy the the ceo of goya supported president trump so president trump had pictures of goya um in the oval office and was promoting the company well if i didn't like that fact and i didn't like goya because the president was promoting it that's one thing but i wouldn't want to just short the stock just because of that uh that idea there's uh there's the goya thing from before anyways i appreciate i ukc for coming on and uh engaging me with me in conversation i appreciate everybody else for watching today and um best of luck we'll see what happens uh i continue to remain short gme and um there's a chart right there and we'll see where we go from here today uh for all of you who received your stimulus today or in the next couple days congratulations i wonder if the stimulus checks are going to result in meme stocks rallying because people put their money in the bank and then they rally now if you got a stimulus check today and you wanted to deposit in robin hood it would take i believe i don't know how quickly they give you access to your money it might be immediately or might take a couple days to clear clear but we'll see if that affects things um it seems like with gamestop the the the um like the craziness to the long side has been interrupted slightly with the current down move and that of course affects psychology with things but um we will see if gamestop has a third life and can rally up here and take out that 350 high and move higher i continue to be short it but we will see what happens i don't advocate anyone following me because i haven't been uh very profitable as of late and certainly with this trade hasn't worked out yet but we'll see what happens moving forward anyway thanks for watching um i will leave a link to bill gross in the description and have a uh great rest of your day folks see you next time too
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