저자: 미상 · 외국인
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Ray Dalio의 Bridgewater 창업 일화를 소개. 1982년 경제 위기를 예측했으나 결과적으로 빗나가 큰 손실과 4,000달러 차입을 겪었고, 이후 리스크 분산과 의사결정 원칙을 강조하는 All Weather 포트폴리오 전략을 설명. 특정 자산에 대한 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
The day he predicted the economic collapse, but it happened to him. Almost everyone who saw the crisis ended up losing everything. He could n't escape it; he foresaw what was about to happen. A major crisis occurred, and then that crisis happened. That's true, but instead of making a fortune, he... He suffered such heavy losses that he had to borrow $4,000 from his father to pay for expenses.
This family story happened to Redario. Yes, the founder of the investment company called Bridge Water, after predictions that... The economy made a major mistake in 1982. Just think about how someone could see the danger. Before others, I've researched enough to dare to speak out. Something that many people still don't believe, but ultimately...
In the end, he was the one who almost couldn't save himself. What happened if they survived? And what if even the investors... Even the legendary investment scheme made mistakes. At this price, should ordinary people like us invest? How about that, without having to entrust your life to predicting the future?
To get it right every time, let's try investing in a trip to see for ourselves today. Let's talk about this before the name Brid Water existed and before customers started depositing money for us to manage. My investment journey started from a golf course on Long Island in the United States. He was about 12 years old and worked as a daddy.
He earns money by helping carry golf bags and among people. Among those who came to play golf were people who worked on Wall Street, and there was an incident while walking around the course. One thing they like to talk about is... " Stocks," he said. "I listened, I asked questions, and then I became interested." A world where people invest their money and have the opportunity to make money.
It came back even stronger than before, until one day he cut it. He decided to use the money he had saved, about $300, to buy his first ever stock and other shares. That one is called North East Airlines. It's a stock of an airline company, but the reason... Stopping buying things isn't as complicated as we thought.
I think so, as he said, it's a company he knows. Since the stock was trading below $5, he thought that if the stock was cheap, he should buy it. I already own several shares, so if the price goes up, I should make some money. Looking back, there's a lot to admit, even if it's just a little bit. That's not a reason to choose good stocks.
It was a success, but the results turned out well, as expected. He said the company was having problems, but there was another. The company acquired the business, increasing its investment value. His investment increased by approximately three times. That first experience captivated him and made him fall in love with the stock market.
Seriously, there's an interesting question here: if we buy stocks for a certain reason... An impromptu result that unexpectedly yields profit. How will we know what it means to get it? Is money a result of skill or luck? It was perfectly timed, because the profits tell us that this was the first time.
The results are good, but it doesn't yet answer the question of... How well will the method we use get us forward? For him, the stock market became something he studied. He continued investing throughout his studies before going on to attend Harvard Business School and worked in the finance world until 1975 when he decided to start his own company.
That's BridgeWater, a company that started from his two-bedroom apartment in New York City, from a kid who used to follow people around. Someone else on the golf course right now is walking on the line. He went his own way, and a few years later... This path will lead him to a major test. Buying the wrong stock is far more likely than making a prediction that seems wrong.
This seemed to be becoming a reality as we entered the late 1970s and continued into the early 1980s, when the US economy was facing problems. Inflation is high, according to the US Federal Reserve Bank. The Fed is using a tighter monetary policy in order to... Prevent inflation by raising interest rates to a level...
Very high pressure from borrowing costs. This affects economic activity and the United States is entering... The recession of 1981, around the same time, we were also watching for another problem. On the one hand, that's the money from the American banks. We provide loans to various countries; they make an assessment.
That some borrowing countries have excessive debt burdens. It will take a while to pay it back [song], and if these debts... That's a problem; the damage could come back to haunt you. Reaching the banks first will have a broader impact on the economy. Therefore, Prey believed that a crisis was about to occur.
This could lead the economy into a severe downturn and... Let's imagine this over a long period of time: what if someone takes out a loan? I can't afford to pay for the [song], that's why I'm in distress. It's not just him; the lender also suffers. It also has an impact, especially if the lender is a bank.
With many other businesses depending on it, the problem is... It might not just be two people; this is a picture of... Interconnected damage that causes the word Our warning sounded more convincing, and in fact... A significant event occurred in August 1982. Yes, it really happened. Mexico informed the authorities.
The international financial obligations of a country are not limited to that of others. Debt can be repaid according to existing obligations. This will likely lead to debt problems in other countries as well. What I'm worried about is no longer just the image in my head. Yes, it really happened. He warned me.
And then the situation escalated to that point, Rern. They testified before the U.S. Congress and appeared on a program. The renowned financial analyst War Street Week expressed his views on the economy with confidence. I would be very happy if this were a story we told. This looks familiar; it's probably a scene where the protagonist...
Gaining acceptance caused those who had doubted to start turning back. Listen, and what he has studied is about to yield results. However, the financial markets didn't follow that script. Yes, you're right to think that after a problem occurs, the world... How to respond is a separate question. And we are about to learn from the differences.
Because of the very high price, the world isn't moving in that direction. Just as he thinks, what we're facing is a crisis. This will lead to a continued severe economic downturn. And what happened in the United States didn't get reported. That's right, inflation is starting to decline and the Fed is easing.
Easing monetary policy led to a stock market recovery. And the US economy emerged from recession in late 1982. This doesn't mean the debt problem... He sees it as unreal. Mexico and other countries are also dealing with... The crisis that occurred led us to the conclusion that... The US economy would also face a prolonged downturn.
It did n't turn out the way he expected, he thought. Seeing the beginning of the story, one can only assess it. The next step is wrong, and the investment has been placed. To cope with a future where the world... Going down the wrong path can also create harm. I was so exhausted from working so hard that Bridwater had to reduce their team, and I had to borrow $4,000 from my father to make ends meet for the family.
$4,000 for someone who's trying so hard. Creating a company with this investment money isn't for that purpose. Expanding the business isn't just about seizing new opportunities. The market is there to help keep things going. Try to imagine the difference between those two periods. In one period, you're explaining something to someone.
Others heard that the entire economic system would be... However, you'll need to come back and organize it at some point. A much closer question is the cost. Where will the family get the money to pay for this? For us, it wasn't painful because... He predicted the market wrongly, but it shows the importance of confidence.
The answers we give can have an impact on real life. How much has been achieved, and how far has the story gone? A small company might come to an end, but... He chose to go back and check what was going on. After making the same decision as before, with the same question. That's what changed when I recounted this event.
He later admitted that he used to be confident. Too much, that mistake caused... He values having people with different opinions involved. Please review your own perspective on what is interesting. The point is, he didn't just conclude that it would be next time. I need to study harder than before because this time...
He made a mistake, but he had already done his research, so the problem isn't just... There's too little information, but it's a question that... That means we're interpreting that data openly. How much opportunity are you willing to give yourself to be wrong, let's say? We have a belief that arises when we encounter...
If a news story supports our viewpoint, we should quickly gather that news. It 's evidence, but then we encounter conflicting information. They quickly went back to find answers and explain why the information... That's why it does n't matter if it's like this, even if you read it. Adding even more information might bring us closer to the answer.
That's absolutely correct; we may simply have our reasons. We've gotten better at arguing with the original answer. One method he chose after that was to do... Working with talented and willing people. I disagree with him, then I create a process. Allowing each party to explain their reasons [Song] Check Examine the conflicting information and reach a consensus with him.
The view is that this process will help Brid Water make better decisions, or to put it simply... It means that the people who tell us we're wrong might not be actually wrong. Sometimes, when they get in our way, they might be pointing out a hole. We may not be able to see it for sure yet. That does n't mean we have to believe everyone.
You're arguing with us, but we should differentiate between things. What we are protecting is the reason we still exist. Is it weight, or just the feeling that we don't? I wanted to be the one at fault, and then I brought that thought back. When applied to investing, the question begins to change. The original question might have been, "How can we accurately predict the future?" "How did it end?" leads to further questions.
If the future doesn't turn out the way we expected [in the song], How do we manage our money years from now? An approach that clearly reflects this way of thinking is the All-Wi strategy. Bridgewater states that this strategy was first used in 1996, originally developed for capital gains. It is the result of a joint study by him and his team.
To create a portfolio that doesn't rely on prediction. The future economic outlook, primarily referred to as " Allther," prompts us to consider what to prepare for. To cope with various weather conditions, a comparison is needed. Let's say we're about to embark on a long journey, but... We don't know for sure if we'll encounter sunshine along the way.
One way to cope with rain or cold weather is... Try to get the weather forecast as accurate as possible and then plan accordingly. The bag is exactly as predicted, if we think about it. If the sun is going to shine, prepare things for a sunny day. Another way out is to accept that... The weather forecast may be inaccurate [the song].
Prepare yourself to handle a variety of situations. The second bag might not be the lightest of the day. The weather is sunny, but if it starts raining, we won't. We need to start solving the problem from the source: portfolio management. This is a key concept along those lines. Brid Water considers economic growth...
And inflation may turn out to be higher or lower than what the market expects. Expectations and responses of each asset class to the situation. These changes are different, therefore they bring profit. Several types of assets are combined together in order to avoid... The portfolio is too dependent on the same conditions.
According to this framework, the stock may benefit from... Better-than-expected growth in government bond yields. Fixed premiums may be helpful in current economic conditions. Inflation slowed down as commodity prices and... Inflation-linked bonds are entering the picture. It plays another role in dealing with risks.
But all of these are relationships used in... Portfolio design isn't a hard and fast rule; it's not a given. In this case, the asset must always go up in price. And another key point is to divide the money equally. This does n't mean that risk is divided equally. Bit Water's approach, therefore, emphasizes...
Balancing risk isn't just about looking at one thing. The amount of money invested in each asset by each person. How would I normally apply this up to this point? Let me rephrase the concept into a simple three-pronged approach to checking our portfolio. This isn't Bit Water's allocation formula, but rather a question to ask.
We can use it to prepare for investments for ourselves. The first thing is to look at how we diversify our risk. Is it true that you can just buy multiple funds under different names? For example, let's say we buy three different funds with different names. I bought them on different days and they're in different accounts, but when I checked the other side...
In the end, all three funds hold shares in the set. It's mostly the same if that's the case. We are also repeatedly exposed to risks from the group's businesses. Originally, having multiple funds was not the case. To ensure your portfolio is always diversified, you need to check this. It's good to know what those funds are actually investing in.
The applicable question is, if that's what we hoped for. If this doesn't happen, the assets in the portfolio will be damaged. No matter how prepared we are, we may find that even with a product name... The screen is full of assets, but they all await the future. The second point is similar: calculating the damages in real money, not just looking at...
Let's assume we have 100,000 baht in capital, 50,000 baht in stocks and 50,000 baht in cash. Let's say we reduce our stock holdings by 30%. What is the value of the cash then? Originally, this was without interest and fees. Our portfolio will only have 85,000 baht left after the initial investment. At first, it was divided equally, but the damage...
In this example, all the information comes from the stock side. Now that we've seen the real money, the next question is, how will this 15,000 baht reduction affect...? Is this our life plan? It's money we don't need right now. For many more years, or as money that needs to be spent... The asset allocation selection will take place in a few months.
Therefore, the time frame for implementation must be taken into consideration. We have the capital and can cope with the damage. We didn't select from the portfolios of celebrities. The third thing is to set the rules first. It's past the point where emotions will start making decisions. It's very dangerous.
Before buying, try writing down the reasons. Let yourself read a couple of lines. We bought it because... What kind of information would make us reconsider? This belief is written down beforehand, no. Yes, when the price goes up, more money is invested. Is this more than we can tolerate as mistakes?
No, writing it down beforehand at least allows... We have more than enough things to compare it to. When prices go up, they say they intend to invest for the long term. It was already a long-term investment, but the reason changed when the price dropped. Keep trying new things so you don't have to accept that.
The original plan had problems, in addition to reviewing the reasons. You should review your portfolio allocation periodically. Yes, because some assets may grow faster. Everything else caused the once balanced portfolio to become... A portfolio that is overly reliant on a single asset. Restoring balance might be achieved by reducing the part that...
Exceeding the plan or using new investment to fill the gap. Further details are needed, taking into account fees and... There are also taxes involved, but that's another matter. One thing to remember is a diversified portfolio. Taking risks can still lead to losses; therefore, diversification is necessary.
Taking a risk isn't a guarantee that we won't lose. [Song] It's about money; it's an attempt to reduce dependence. Focus on a single investment because you have multiple asset classes. They may adjust downwards simultaneously, so there is no specific target. Yes, creating a portfolio that will never disappoint, but...
It means not designing a financial life that sounds good. It's easy because the future isn't what we think it will be. Finally, if we go back to the 4,000 baht that we had to borrow from our father that time, from my perspective... For listeners like us, what's memorable might not be... It's not just the amount of money, it's the distance that matters.
The difference between the confidence we have in understanding the world and the lack of confidence we have in understanding the world. It's true that there are still things we can't see. Marley didn't live his life after that by... I'm not making a judgment based on what he's told me. Mistakes made him focus on...
Self-examination and listening to reasonable people. He's become more different from me in this respect. It does n't teach us to be afraid of investing. But it encourages us to leave room for... It's possible we're mistaken; we can be diligent. We can study it, we have confidence in what we do. It can be done without needing to spend all your life savings.
It's tied to proving that this time we will. Be right before making your next investment, besides... Ask yourself, "If we look correctly, how much will we get?" Let me add one more point: even if we're mistaken, we can still move forward. You can get more because one investment isn't necessary. It has to be the answer to life, and we don't need to.
You don't have to win every time, but you should still leave opportunities for yourself. I learned, I corrected [the song], and I started. See you next time with a new plant, and before we part ways, here's something to leave you with. Please like, subscribe, and share to support our investment channel and give us encouragement.
We make great videos like this every day! For anyone who wants to join the discussion about registering... Whether it's investment capital, gold, or stocks, you can check the description below. We've posted it. [Song] The link to our community is kept there. I assure you, your friends won't feel lonely at all.
During our journey for the day. This is the message I have to share, and it only contains [a song]. That's all for now. See you again tomorrow. Goodbye.
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