저자: CoachD · 외국인
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결론: 테슬라 베어콜 스프레드가 상승 리스크에 노출되어 있어 콘도르로 조정해 리스크를 줄이고, 필요 시 롱콜로 헤지하겠다는 전략 설명. 현재 포지션: 360/365 베어콜 스프레드 5계약, 16일 만기, 약 79달러 손실 상태, 증거금 약 2,500달러. 차트 판단: 이중바닥 후 신고가 돌파. 단기적으로 소폭 하락 후 재상승 가능성을 예상하나, 행사가가 가까워 조정 필요. 리스크 그래프: 최대이익 185달러, 360달러 이상 상승 시 손실 급증, 최대손실 약 2,300달러. 델타 -20 수준으로 상승 리스크 노출. 조정 방법 1: 310/315 풋 스프레드를 추가해 콘도르로 전환. 약 0.5달러 크레딧 수취, 최대이익 435달러, 최대손실 2,000달러 미만으로 감소, 델타 약 2로 중립화. 조정 방법 2: 주가가 계속 오르면 1월 만기 롱콜 또는 주식 매수로 추가 헤지 가능. 델타를 낮추면 헤지 자본도 줄어듦. 리스크: 상승 추세가 지속되면 손실 확대 가능, 옵션 전략 특성상 증거금·만기 관리 필요. 출연자 전망: 테슬라 단기 소폭 조정 후 상승 재개 가능성 언급, 명확한 목표가는 없음.
다듬은 글
hey everybody this is coach D with tackle trading dot-com just wanted to walk you through interesting just a quick adjustment on a bear call spread that is a little bit of risk and so you know trade hasn't gone horribly wrong yet but it's not working out as much as we'd hoped and I'm talking about this trade here on Tesla so what I have here is Tesla okay and this is a bear call spread it's a 360 by 365 bear call spread expires in 16 days and we got 5x5 contracts right there so you can see the you know the general scenario and it's drawn down a little bit it's down 79 bucks or so nothing too bad it's tying up $2,500 in margin and this is just a classic bear call spread let me go ahead and kind of walk you through what we see on the chart which is what's kind of led me to concern so again this is a bear call spread we sold the 360 call bought the 365 so those are the two strike prices out there and it's put in a double bottom here now I'm double bottom where you can see the W pattern right there and it's broken out it's moved to a new high now with that currently with the way it's sitting right now what I'd anticipate is it looks like it's kind of in a support resistance zone I might anticipate a small drop back but then it looks like it's reversing back up and so it's you know the strikes aren't too far away but we can start adjusting the trade right now just to help improve you know the potential situation that we have on this so let me just go ahead and take a look at the risk graph with you here and here's what we see on the risk graph is again we can see these are the strike prices 360 right here 360 and then 365 is the other strike price and this is a again a bear call spread with the net crédit between the two you can actually see that pricing down here let me let me zoom that out so you can see that here you can see where we brought in a buck 57 and spend a dollar 20 on that so that gives us a maximum profit of 185 bucks and that's you know price could continue to rise and my general concern is right here with the Delta at the current price this is where the current price is trading at 340 the current Delta at 340 ish I'm 339 ish is here at negative 20 and this has risk to the upside so the stock price continues to rise you can see where anything above that 360 price puts us in trouble and it's continues to draw down a little bit once you get past that strike price and you get past that theta switch point right there those are the those are the price points where you know you start losing more and more money and you can see where you can draw down you can very very quickly be in a thousand dollar loss or more you know you could lose up to about 2,300 bucks on this trade total if you let it blow out the top and you didn't do anything and I wanted to walk you through a simple simple concept on the adjustment on this is is just as follows we can actually start turning start the adjustment right now by turning this into a condor and so what I what I can do here is I can go ad on the bold put spread an equal you know five dollar spread and we can bring in a 50 cent credit and although this doesn't necessarily eliminate the risk of course what it does do is it increases our potential return it reduces our risk to the extent that we get the credit and it'll neutralize the Delta which means it'll take less money to hedge if we need to so right now that Delta again here's kind of what I want you to pay attention to is watch this Delta column right here watch this number right there and what's gonna happen here is the max credits gonna go up by 50 cents times 5 contracts and then the risk product that risk profile is gonna go up by the same amount and it's gonna it's kind of looking like a risk graph that looks a little bit like this a little bit higher here a little bit more profit a little bit less risk and a little bit more neutral Delta so that's what we're gonna see so let me go ahead and check that box down there and I chose a 315 by 310 strike price based off of my Delta rules just wanted to put on a typical spread so that I didn't over expose ourself to risk if I ran down and so that's exactly what we see here we see that now the position the maximum gains 435 dollars reduced the risk of just over 2000 and most importantly what we did here is you'll notice now that Delta we've neutralized down to just two and so what that means is is if the stock price continues to run we could just add on a long call we could buy some stock shares or we could do some change the trade in a way so that we could hedge it out if the stock price continues to rise and you know we started out by turning it into the Condor and that neutralizes us so that we don't need to throw nearly as much money at it to offset the risk with the hedge and we could easily you know start hedging that out let me squeeze that up so we can see that there you know just by buying a long call and I've got an example of buying a longer-term long call here out in January with just enough Delta toss that the risk and so if it continues to rise throw a little bit of money at DSU and if it continues to rise we can eliminate that risk altogether so that is vague continues to rise we don't ever have to let this winning trade will be a winning trade turn into a losing trade so you know step one put on the put spread changing the bear call spread into a Condor neutralizing the Delta and then if it does continue to rise we have less risk to begin with we can continue to roll the puts up if we want to but we could also have the ability to simply buy a call option or buy some stock shares just to offset the risk and by lowering that Delta number we lower the amount of capital it takes to throw on that hedge again coach D with tackle trading com I hope you enjoyed this video
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