저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 레이 달리오는 부채 사이클 말기, 부의 격차 확대, 미중 패권 경쟁이 겹친 상황에서 팬데믹 충격이 더해졌다고 보며, 중앙은행의 돈 찍기로 인플레이션 위험이 커졌으니 개인은 소득·지출·저축을 점검하고 분산하라고 권한다. 거시 진단: 금리가 제로 근처라 중앙은행의 전통적 금리 인하 효과가 제한되며, 1932년과 2008년처럼 국채 매입과 화폐 발행으로 대응하고 있다고 설명한다. 정부 지원금은 적자 재정으로 조달되며, 연준이 돈을 찍어 빌려주는 구조라는 점을 짚는다. 인플레이션 리스크: 화폐 발행이 많아지면 통화 가치가 위협받을 수 있다고 경고한다. 디지털 방식으로 돈을 만들 수 있다는 점이 가치 신뢰 문제를 키운다고 본다. 역사적 비교: 현재 상황을 1930~1945년 시기와 유사한 과정으로 보며, 역사를 보면 위안이 된다고 말한다. 세 가지 핵심 요인: 첫째 효과가 떨어진 통화·신용 시스템, 둘째 큰 부의 격차, 셋째 중국의 부상과 미국 패권에 대한 도전이다. 세 요인이 겹치면 갈등이 커진다고 본다. 팬데믹의 성격: 바이러스는 쓰나미처럼 경제에 충격을 주었으며, 알고 대응했더라도 경제적 피해는 남았을 것이라고 평가한다. 개인 대응 조언: 소득·지출·저축을 점검하고 스트레스 테스트를 해서, 소득이 끊겼을 때 어느 정도 기간 생활할 수 있는지 계산하라고 권한다. 지출은 줄이고 소득은 기술 습득으로 높이라고 한다. 자산 배분: 포트폴리오의 5~10%를 금에 두는 것을 권하며 금은 증시 헤지로 경기 악화 시 상승하는 경향이 있다고 설명한다. 국채는 무위험 자산으로 선호되며, 여러 나라 주식에 분산 투자하는 ETF도 언급한다. 원자재도 경기와 무관하게 필요한 자산으로 분산 대상으로 제시한다. 출연자 전망: 명시적인 개별 종목이나 지수에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없고, 장기적 구조 진단 중심이다.
다듬은 글
well pandemics come along occasionally but uh anything that's important let me say the three most important circumstances that existed before we had the downturn which was caused by a pandemic but any downturn would have produced the same results the three most important things that are happening in the world now are that we're at the end late in a long-term debt cycle in which central banks cannot control monetary policy the same way they can't lower interest rates they can't get money to a lot of people who need the money in the traditional way so just like in 1929 to 1932 there was a debt crisis that came as a result of an excessive amount of debt in the boom years and then when you have that in 1932 we hit zero interest rates and when they had when they hit zero interest rates in 32 like in 2008 central bank prints money and buys financial assets and so what happens in these cycles is that normally uh central banks can stimulate the economy by lowering interest rates but when you hit zero interest rates that doesn't work so the last time it hits zero interest rates was 1932 and what they did in 1932 was the same thing they did in 2008 and that is that the central banks prints a lot of money and buys government bonds and so we're doing that now the important thing to know about this crisis and that it happened in the 1930s is that in order to get the checks that we're needing you know a lot of people a lot of companies um need checks now where will thou those checks come from so there'll be checks from the government the type of support we're going to receive is two types of support where does all this money come from so the the government when they say i'm going to pay more for unemployment insurance so i'm going to give you a loan for a small business or so on they where they get the money from well they either tax it but if they tax it that's bad so the government they can borrow it that's what a deficit is the government runs a deficit and then the question is who's going to borrow it when everybody's financially strapped and the federal reserve says they have the power to print money and they will say i will borrow it and i i will lend you the money so the federal reserve is lending the money and it is also lending others the money the important thing to know is that all that we think about money is not limited in any way like there's a certain amount of money out there it's all believe it's all digital so they could change the digits and then they can create money now that's an important consideration because if they can create money so easily how do we know it's going to be a value when they're creating a lot of it that's one of the considerations that are being faced today but the main thing to know about this stepping back for the big picture is that every individual every company and every government has a certain amount of money that comes in in the form of income a certain amount of expenses and then a certain amount of savings so you do individually and every all your listeners do and it works the same way for everyone so that if their income falls and then great less to be less than their expenditures they're in trouble unless they have a good savings and then they go to the savings so all around the world there are lots of entities that are in trouble in that way so the government the two parts of the government the u.s government two parts want to give checks to people now it's difficult to decide who gets it who doesn't get it but if they don't give checks to people or to companies those will go bankrupt because they may not have enough savings j.crew went bankrupt just went bankrupt and you'll see others go bankrupt because they don't have enough and so when they go bankrupt then that's a whole other process so in order to prevent that they have to give money and so they print money we call it print there's not even paper much it's digitally create money and then that comes in the form of loans so what we're going through is the same process as happened in the 1930 to 1945 period so as i was saying there are three important things that is one the second is large wealth gap third is that um we have a rising power in the form of china uh emerging to compete or challenge the united states leadership so when you have these three things together it's um it's a challenging mix and it's happened repeatedly less effective monetary and credit system makes it they have to print a lot of money can threaten the value of money second when you have a large wealth gap and you have an economic downturn people are more inclined to have conflict so how that's dealt with we're going to reconsider how we're going to that wealth will be divided and that'll change taxes and relationships and then the third is we're no longer in a world order where the united states is the only dominant power these three things existed and the most important things existed and then we had the downturn terms in terms of the virus so you could think of the virus like being a tsunami that came and if it went and if we had not know more of it it still would have left a lot of economic damage so you in all different ways so the economic damage has to be understood and dealt with but for the average person who doesn't understand a lot of this like when you look at this historical perspective i find a certain level of comfort in that because of the notion of another one of these right so we've seen this before maybe we haven't in our lifetime but historically um people have so what can the average person take away from that they don't have bonds they don't think like that they may not even understand what their 401k is or they may not even have a 401k so how do they navigate this is it just head down do your best to weather the storm or is there actually something that they can learn from the historical perspective and move on now to make this easier for them it's the same for every individual same for every company same if you understand this then you understand there well there are three things the first is look at your income your expenses and your savings and then do a stress test so that you get yourself secure if you were to lose your income or if the income were to fall beyond a certain level and you play that out maybe that means you go get unemployment insurance but or whatever how long can you live in an acceptable lifestyle and do you have a savings that is adequate for that okay so what you do is you calculate if i lived in a simpler lifestyle and i had this amount of earnings um how many months how many months or years could i live acceptably so i want to break this down very quickly and simply to make sure you all get what dalio is talking about okay so what's happening currently as you all know we are facing tough times when it comes to the economy both companies and people are struggling people have lost their jobs a lot of businesses are getting less revenue and expenses still have to be paid this means both groups have recently needed a lot of money that's where the government steps in and says no worries we're going to give out stimulus checks and other types of money to make sure that you guys are okay but the question is where does this money come from it comes from the fed who prints a lot of money and by print i mean it's all digitally done but what happens when you print a lot of money well it causes inflation you can't expect to put so much more money in the system and expect the currency to be worth the same as it was before so the question becomes how do we prepare for this particular environment well as dalio pointed out it comes down to three simple things income expenses and savings what can we do with income well we try and maximize it and secure it we do this by obtaining more skills and working hard expenses while that's obvious we just try and minimize those instead of buying starbucks make your coffee at home instead of avocado and toast maybe peanut butter you get the point lastly savings what do we do with that well dalio who always recommends a bit of gold five to ten percent of the portfolio the gold is known as a great stock market hedge and it often moves higher as economic conditions get worse also bonds dalio is a big fan of them you know if you own government ones they're also known as risk free another thing is diversifying across countries dalio owns a couple of etfs that own stocks around the world this way you're spreading your risk in businesses across the globe that's a smart strategy the last thing we can mention is commodities there's something else you might want to spread your portfolio in they're needed in this world and they'll be needed no matter what economic condition so i do hope that helped you guys i hope that clarified things well because it's so important that we prepare now while we can you
Comments 0