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Okay, so is the US stock market really going to collapse? When Peter Shina was a young investor, Previous warnings suggested that the US stock market might face... Major restructuring ahead of the election. Midterm, the phrase "hissing" is startling. Don't forget, it's October already! This might not just be about food of the month.
October is ordinary, but right now there's a risk. The market is being hit by a series of challenges, including inflation... Interest rates are rising again, which is putting pressure on stocks. With oil prices soaring and AI companies attracting massive investments, the market is preparing. The question is, is it really worth it?
That's the question. Is this just a market pause or a signal? A warning before a major crisis, and if the stock market... The US market is experiencing a sharp decline; how should investors respond? Okay, today we're going to delve deeper into this. The US stock market is about to face a crisis. Is this really a big deal?
Hello everyone. Welcome to an in-depth look at... Today, we're going to trace back to a report that... It's incredibly interesting to understand the risks involved. This is a complex macroeconomic analysis and a way to gauge the current state of the AI trend in the stock market. What are some of the hidden risks?
Okay, let's go. Let's dive right in at the beginning of this hot topic. This information comes from Peter C., whom many people probably know. Known as an old-school investor, he has his own perspective. We are taking a relatively cautious view of the financial markets. The US has been consistently vigilant, and recently they issued a warning.
That the stock market might experience a correction. The situation is likely to escalate before the midterm elections. Interestingly, he took into account the beliefs of scholars. A familiar investment term is the October Effect, where the base price rises in October as a signal. Remind them with the sentence, "Don't forget, this is..." The month of October sounds a little unsettling, doesn't it?
No, it's pointing to past statistics. The stock market often experiences severe graying. This month, but in reality, what we need to do... Beware, it might not be just some kind of curse from the calendar. Yes, because the market is currently facing a perfect storm caused by strong pressure. Macroeconomic pressures and debt problems in some areas.
Industries that emerged and developed simultaneously. Good for an overview of today's information, now let's break it down. We'll tackle it step by step, starting with the drilling. Deep warnings in October highlight pressure on money. Inflation and oil prices: a return to a more realistic worldview.
The reality of AI stocks: valuation. The actual market, and concluding with a guideline. Let's protect our investment portfolio. Let's start with the first point. Let's take a look. So, the October warning, did it actually happen? It's just a panic caused by a past curse. Or is there a threat from fundamental factors?
The underlying economic motive is, to put it mildly,... Mr. Shifa didn't just warn based on a hunch, but there were four very frightening factors at play. What's coming together is the stock value. Soaring prices and ballooning corporate debt. The rising cost of borrowing and... Most importantly, the weakness of the economy is...
It may not be as glamorous as the stock price figures suggest. This is the whiteboard we see every day, even though... Historically, stocks tend to fall sharply in October. Many times, but as an investor who observes the world from a broader perspective. The reality is, we must first understand what a curse is.
October isn't a hard and fast rule; what we... The real focus should be on economic data. It's the underlying factors that are putting pressure on the market. We're not here to be afraid of the Kathina ceremony; let's try... Let's shift our perspective and look at the bigger picture of the economy in part 2, which is the issue of pressure.
Driven by inflation and oil prices, which are considered... Macro-level variables are sounding the alarm. This 3.7% figure, which is very popular right now, comes from the latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) report. Excellent. The data clearly shows global inflation. US stocks jumped 3.7% compared to...
Last year, it even increased by 0.6% (6%) compared to the previous month, according to what people are saying. This is not a good sign for the market at all. Okay, the equation for this story works like this: To be very straightforward, inflation remains stubborn. The US Federal Reserve is stubborn and unwilling to back down easily.
The Fed had no choice but to freeze prices. Interest rates are expected to remain high for an extended period. With higher borrowing costs, people... The group that will face the most pressure is inevitably the one that will get the most pressure. Growth stocks are what I'm talking about because of their valuation.
These companies make assessments in advance based on... Future profits will immediately see their value affected by high interest rates. The future instantly vanishes, and there's another variable at play. One complication that shouldn't be overlooked is... The conflict situation in the Middle East by...
Specifically regarding Iran things. This affects the energy supply, impacting water resources. It gets more expensive as soon as oil prices go up, including transportation costs. And then, private sector production surged as well. Yes, the Fed is having an even bigger headache now that they have to raise interest rates.
Fighting inflation might collapse the economy, so lowering interest rates might be necessary. Inflation has soared to a critical point. It's really a difficult situation, judging from the image. We've covered the big picture, now let's zoom in on the micro level. Continuing on to Part 3, it's time for us to...
We need to face the reality of investing in the AI industry right now. The psychological picture of the market has changed drastically. It's a complete turnaround compared to before. The market is often buzzing with excitement and asking, " Wow, how far can AI go?" Now, reality is beginning to affect investors.
The question has changed; it's now something else. So, how much more investment is needed for the data center, and when will we see profits? Show us the truth so we can understand. Going deeper, the stock market views risk. I'd like these companies to familiarize themselves with the term Default Swap Credit, or CDS.
Simply put, it's like buying... Insurance covers the possibility that the company might default on its payments. That's right, the higher the CDS value goes, the more... This means the market is assessing whether the company has... The risk of not being able to cope increases accordingly. And now the warning lights are starting.
The data is flashing, indicating that CDS costs for giants like MetaMusic, as well as CallWeek, an AI infrastructure company, are rising. [The song] doesn't mean that these two companies will go bankrupt tomorrow, but the meaning is... In reality, investors in the bond market are... Demanding higher compensation as a reward.
Tired of compensating for the risk from the company. These create enormous debt, [the song] even more. With interest rates continuing to rise like this, the company... Companies that borrow a lot are more likely to suffer losses than companies that don't. We definitely have cash on hand, so let's move on to part 4.
Once we've gathered all the pressure together... With inflation and AI debt at stake, the big question that follows is: what exactly is happening in the stock market right now? Is it overpriced? We need to address this issue. Please distinguish between the fact that the stock market has prices. Expensive, or traded at extremely high prices?
It doesn't mean the market is going to collapse today. Tomorrow isn't always the case. These two things aren't. These things must happen simultaneously: An expensive market can continue to get more expensive. Yes, as long as the company can still make a profit. Exceeding investor expectations, but the likelihood...
The real fear is the timing of the stock price. It already reflects a perfect future, but the result... The actual performance turned out to be terrible. Just imagine an AI stock trying to tell investors that... The profits might have to be postponed for now, if... When will that happen, and when will the market recover?
Reassessment or mass selling to adjust valuations. Price fluctuations will definitely be rapid and violent. Okay, once we've examined the risks and gotten a complete picture... Now that we've covered every angle, let's look at the final part, part 5, which is the setting strategy. Receiving and managing risk for the investment portfolio.
Our goal with all this information is not... I'm going to tell everyone to panic and start a sell-off. It's not that I'm dumping all the shares, but it is... This is the time when we should implement defensive strategies. Yes, we may need to reassess the proportion of AI and AI stocks in our portfolio and keep an eye on the figures.
Inflation and bond yields are closely linked. And importantly, we need to monitor whether these AI investments can be converted back into cash flow. Is it true, besides this [song], that I asked for... I want to emphasize that you should avoid using machi. Absolutely do not borrow money to invest during this period.
And don't forget to carry some cash on hand. It 's a smart risk management option. And that makes perfect sense, to summarize and make it clear. So, what is the real threat or danger? It's not the curse of October according to the calendar. No, but it was just a coincidence that our paths crossed. The exact level of inflation that stubbornly resists interest rate hikes.
The soaring oil prices and mountain of debt stem from AI investments that still await proof of results. The final result is something else entirely. Let's try going back. Let's ask ourselves some questions about investing. In the long run, it's not about making the right guess every time. I 'm not sure how much the market will fall tomorrow.
Percentage [of songs], but the real question is... We need to ask ourselves these questions when we see all the information. This is what would happen if a major correction occurred. The risk management plan is really serious. You are strong enough to keep the portfolio afloat. Will we survive? Thank you to everyone who followed.
According to today's in-depth analysis: We hope the information we've shared will be helpful to everyone. Prepare your portfolio to cope with volatility. Rest assured, and see you again next time. Hello, good morning. [Song]
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