저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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첫 줄 결론: 애크먼은 자신의 전략이 단기 가격 예측이 아닌 장기 가치 보유이며, 공매도 세력과 언론 비판을 정면 반박하는 입장이다. 종목 예측 관련: 특정 종목의 다음 달 또는 연말 주가는 예측할 수 없다고 명확히 말했다. 보유 기간 근거: CP(캐나다퍼시픽 철도)는 4년, 하워드휴즈는 약 7년, 몬델리즈는 장기 보유 중이라고 언급했다. 장기 전망: 몬델리즈는 1년 뒤와 2년 뒤 모두 지금보다 더 가치 있는 회사가 될 것이라고 전망했다. 원자재 관련: CP 주가는 유가 등 원자재 가격에 따라 단기 변동하지만, 기업 가치는 평생 현금흐름의 현재가치라 단기 유가는 가치 계산에 큰 영향이 없다고 주장했다. 변동성 관련: 변동성은 장기 투자자에게 매력적인 가격에 더 살 기회라고 설명했다. 펀드 성과 관련: 올해 여름 실적이 좋지 않았고, 시장중립형 펀드가 월 7% 손실은 재앙이라고 언급했다. 자신의 운용은 주로 집중 롱(long only) 전략이며 헤르벌라이프 공매도 외에는 장기 보유 중심이라고 밝혔다. 인수합병 관련: 알러간 인수 무산 후 주주가 결정하도록 한 것이 옳았다고 주장했다. 다른 전략적 투자자와 협력해 사업체를 인수할 가능성이 높다고 언급했다. 결과가 어떻든 사업이 개선되거나 다른 곳에 팔리면 성공이라고 했다. 공매도 비판 관련: 공매도 세력이 공개적으로 의견을 밝히는 것은 사적 규제자 역할이며 불합리하다고 반박했다. 러므버 리퀴데이터스 사례에서 휘트니 틸슨이 공개 경고 후 주가가 100달러 이상에서 15달러 수준으로 하락했고, 리먼 사례에서 데이비드 아인혼의 자본 확충 주장이 무시됐다고 언급했다. 헤르벌라이프 관련: 헤르벌라이프가 101개 고아원을 운영한다는 주장은 제품 기부 방식의 세금 사기에 가깝다고 주장했다. 기자라면 카사 헤르벌라이프 시설을 직접 방문해 조사해야 한다고 말했다. 출연자 전망: 애크먼 본인은 몬델리즈와 CP 등 보유 종목이 장기적으로 가치가 상승할 것이라고 전망했다.
다듬은 글
every day you read about deals which don't happen I mean you look at you know transactions where shareholders are supportive the acquires prepared to pay a big premium in fact many of these deals or stock deals where the Sherrill's get to continue in the value creation and a board rejects it and they don't happen and the acquiring company you know walks away having spent 100 million dollars 200 million dollars when you consider all the financing commitments and everything they need to get I mean what we did in Allergan is we we call the question and allowed shareholders to decide what they wanted to do with the future of their business and I think that there are requires who would like to you know companies that would like to buy their transactions that don't happen for social issues and I think we can help catalyze so I think it's very likely we will partner with another strategic to make a bid for a business and we may not get it but you know if the outcome for shareholders is the business either improves on its own or it gets sold to someone else I think that's a win those were great returns this summer has not been great for you nor as it had been for most of the hedge fund industry and last year was you had huge returns what does the end of the year look like for you and what do you think it's gonna look like for people in your business and and if it if it turns out to be negative what do you think it does to the business truck okay I think you people call us a hedge fund and they call the whole category I mean I think what we need to do a few things one is from an industry perspective we need to explain a little bit better but our hedge fund is now there are some funds that are designed to not lose money almost in any market condition there's you know call it market neutral now I think they're very few that actually work but there's some that are successful in that model and a down 7% month for a market neutral fund is like a disaster we're really principally a long only fun with the exception of Herbalife we own concentrated positions and companies we own them for years you know CP we've owned right you know for four years we'll probably own it for for many more years Howard Hughes we've effectively own for seven years so we don't I can't tell you where any of our stocks are gonna be next month I mean it's certainly I can't even tell you where they're gonna be at the end of the year but I can tell you is that the businesses we Mondelez will be a much more valuable company you know a year from now than it is today and two years from now it's gonna be even more valuable and CP is going to be a much more valuable company what's interesting about a company like CP you know stock price moves up and down based on oil prices and commodity price but if you what is the value of a business it's the present value of the cash the business generates over the lot over its life you know the price of oil in the short term doesn't have a particularly meaningful impact on that calculation but it seems have a big impact on the stock price so volatility is an opportunity for long-term investors to buy more at attractive prices or in the case of CP they're buying more of the company I almost feel like you're a split personality on the one hand you are a long term investor on the other hand you are a big activist so what do you can think of yourself that's I mean activists are long-term investors I mean the not all them I look again I think there's a spectrum it's just like hedge fund managers mutual fund managers what we do is you know 10 years ago people accused us of being short-term well we've been in business for a year it's hard to prove that way but long-term investor you know that when you're moving around 20 billion dollars it's hard to do that constantly buying and selling things you're much better off buying super high quality companies and making them better I think the most important thing about this article if he basically says short sellers who share their views publicly something very wrong with that it's effectively as you say a hedge fund becoming a private regulator that's right and I think that yeah is is absurd right look at Lumber Liquidators I'll take myself out of it right so Whitney Tilson goes public maybe a year ago and says this company is shipping formaldehyde laced product that can cause cancer and harm ignored by the markets it took a 60 minutes piece which Whitney obviously was the protagonist in but they did their own research as well to ultimately alert the world stock went from over a hundred dollars a share to today is 15 the company enforced to withdraw this product they're under investigation by a whole bunch of regulators I think the consumers have benefited the shareholders who sold when they when Whitney went out with his piece I've been reading beneficiaries look at David Einhorn and Lehman all right he came public and said this company's undercapitalized they need to recapitalize Lehman ignored him yeah I think they continue to buy back stock you know they said David was market manipulation I think was the word that was used well had the company recapitalized Lehman might have made it through the financial crisis shareholders might have gotten something out of their investment and Lehman look at Jim Chanos on Enron so I think that you know and then he what's interesting the article and again there are lots of factual problems with the article which we can address but the this is an inherently healthy phenomenon but what's interesting are the articles the last sentence he talks about isn't right for a sort of hedge fund managers operating behind closed doors and private meetings you know with there's nothing close to our projects about our investment of life right if we gave the most public most transparent presentation three or 50 slides multiplied presentations with a website with every piece of research we've done plus all the source documents yeah isn't that an incredibly healthy thing you know from market transparency so I think it's really disagree you know reporters can write whatever they want to write I respect that you know for someone who spent clearly an enormous amount of time twelve thousand word article to come to I think absurd conclusion disappointment Lily I'll give you a little fun fact which might help people discern this company is operating fraudulently so among the facts that he reports in the story his Herbalife is running a hundred and one orphanages in 51 countries around the world now the only place for him to get that fact was an Herbalife Herbalife has something called Casa Herbalife and it's sort of their philanthropy what it is is they give a blender or two to a children's organization in the country and they this product that can't the distributor's can't sell they check a box an Herbalife donates the product to these 101 little places around the world and it's fed to small children no III don't know whether small children in Africa should be drinking this you know protein shake from like that's a medical question but the notion that they're running orphanages you know I just think that if I were a reporter I would focus on that I go go into these casa Herbalife's I do it I wouldn't ask for over life tell me where the model ones are located but I go see that one I think it's more a tax fraud than for distributors than it is helping
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