저자: Mike · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드가 ARK를 떠날 가능성은 낮으며, 대주주 Resolute와 협상해 보상·운영 보장을 얻으려 할 것이라는 전망. 배경: 소수 지분 보유자 Resolute가 ARK 지배권을 확보하려 하고, 캐시 우드는 이에 불만을 드러낸 상황이다. ARK는 리서치 공개, 직원 지분 보유 등 차별화된 운영 방식으로 설립 이후 약 5년간 수익률이 4배 올랐다고 언급됐다. 계약 관련 가정: 캐시 우드는 경쟁 금지(non-compete) 조항에 묶여 있을 가능성이 높아, 떠나더라도 약 1년간 자체 운용사를 시작하지 못할 것으로 추정된다. 현재 ARK의 운용자산은 약 100억 달러이며, 이 자금은 캐시 우드를 따라 움직일 것이라고 봤다. 양측 선택지: Resolute가 소수 지주로 남으면 5~10년 내 ARK가 수천억 달러 규모로 성장할 수 있고, 지배권을 가지면 캐시 우드 없이 5년 뒤 자산 10억 달러 미만이 될 수 있다. 따라서 Resolute는 캐시 우드를 만족시키는 방향으로 협상해야 한다는 주장이다. 비유: 캐시 우드는 매일 5천 달러짜리 황금알을 낳는 거위에 비유되며, 이를 걷어차는 것이 지금 Resolute가 하는 행동이라고 비판한다. 출연자 전망: 캐시 우드가 결국 남을 것이라고 예측하며, Resolute도 현명하게 대응할 것이라고 봤다. 캐시 우드 개인 순자산은 수억 달러로 독립할 자금은 충분하다고 언급했다. 리스크: 캐시 우드가 떠날 경우 자금 이탈과 운용 성과 악화가 우려된다는 점이 언급됐다.
다듬은 글
hey it's mike and today i want to talk about what are the odds that kathy wood is going to stay at arc invest for those who don't know a minority stakeholder wants to take control of arkhamvest kathy woods is pushing back she's not happy about it and probably one of the reasons why is because arc investment is one of the most successful etfs out there and they've been able to be a giant success because they do things very differently so for instance kathy woods arkhamvest they share all their resource although their research they don't hide any of their research they uh they basically publicize all of their thinking and they put everything out there all their employees are um also owners of arkhamvest if you know resolute comes in and becomes a majority shareholder they can change just the entire way the company operates and obviously that can affect returns so kathy woods is not happy about that so the question is is she going to leave because if she's going to leave arkhamvest will probably not get the returns that they're getting right now and if you look here since inception it's really uh quadrupled in a span of about five years so it's had some incredible returns so here's here's what we can assume because not all the details of kathy woods um you know relationship with resolute is really out there but we can make some assumptions one is we can assume that she probably has a non-compete which means if she were to leave arc tomorrow she would probably have to go about a year before she can start her own firm just about any time if if you do any deal with another company that buys into you're going to sign a non-compete we could also probably assume that she's not under contract with arc because right now she is the majority owner so she probably would not give a contract to herself but because she has because she uh did a partnership with resolute chances are they did have her sign a nine compete so if she were to leave tomorrow she's probably gonna have to sit out for a year before she can start off her own firm so the question is she going to leave well my feeling is she's probably going to be using this situation as leverage to get better compensation or get assurance from resolute that they're not going to interfere with her day-to-day operations and she's using her displeasure as a form of leverage because here's the thing if kathy woods leave all of that all of the money is going to go with it right now um arkhamvest has 10 billion dollars assets under management i mean all of that really came you know with kathy woods and all of that money is going to follow her so you know resolute has two choices they can have here they could remain the minority stakeholder and what will probably one of the be the biggest etfs on the planet like archives will probably be worth hundreds of billions of dollars or have hundreds of billions of dollars in assets under management in five to ten years or they can become the majority stakeholder of ndtf that doesn't have kathy woods and will probably have less than a billion dollars assets under management in five years so if i would resolute i would sit down and talk to kathy woods and say okay how can we just keep you happy so you stay and then whatever she says you just take that deal because she's basically like the golden goose i you know i was thinking about how to how to discuss the kathy woods and resolute situation it's like imagine a golden goose comes to your house and just starts laying 24 carat golden eggs that are worth five thousand dollars every day you don't know how the goose does it but just just poops out five thousand dollars in golden eggs every day and then you just decide that you're going to kick the goose in the head which is what resolute is doing right now so i just hope that she stays i think i think she's going to end up just going to stay i think resolute is going to be smart about this because in the end everybody wants to make money with this deal and resolute knows that she'll leave i mean you know she probably has kathy woods probably has a couple hundred million dollars in net worth and that's more than enough money to start her own firm so those are my thoughts if you enjoyed this video go ahead subscribe and turn on notifications i do multiple daily updates on stock stock options and stock news thanks bye
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