Markets appear significantly ahead of the Fed, says Mohamed El-Erian

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결론: 시장은 연준보다 앞서 경기둔화와 금리인상 한계를 가격에 반영하고 있으며, 미국은 상대적으로 유리하나 절대적으로는 좋지 않다. 선물·지수 흐름: 아침 S&P500 선물이 약 42포인트 하락 출발. 유럽의 식량·에너지 불안이 정치적 불안정으로 이어질 수 있음. 미국 상대적 매력: 글로벌 경제의 '가장 깨끗한 더러운 셔츠'로서 상대적으로 낫지만 절대적으로는 좋지 않음. 시장 해석: 미국 시장은 경기둔화와 연준의 둔화 중 금리인상을 가격에 반영 중. 연준은 인플레이션 인식이 늦어 금리인상 사이클이 뒤처짐. 실적시즌(2분기): 기업의 비용 측면은 원자재 가격 하락으로 개선되나, 매출 측면은 고인플레이션에 따른 수요 훼손으로 불확실. 기업 CFO들은 가이던스에 보수적일 것으로 전망. 국채 금리: 10년물 금리가 3% 이상에서 하회로 하락, 약 1bp 수준의 평탄화. 채권·회사채 전반에서 경기둔화와 연준 인상을 반영하는 흐름. 금리 하락은 단기적으로 주식에 긍정적. 선반영 여부: 시장이 연준을 선행하는지(연착륙 기대) 연준이 시장을 선행하는지에 대해 불확실. 엘-에리안은 지난 12개월간 세 번째로 시장이 연준을 크게 앞서고 있다고 판단. 리스크: 연준의 '무조건적 긴축 약속'은 실물경제 상황에 따라 조건부로 수정되어야 한다는 지적.

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01. we're seeing futures continue um to decline this morning the s p 500 is now looking to be down about 42 at the open um and so when we think about the difficulties that europe could face you mention all these insecurities food energy etc i mean in the past and i'm not trying to stoke alarm alarmist fears or anything like that but um in certain parts of the world that could lead to political instability um how should we view this in terms of the longer term implications and and the fact that that actually makes the u.s on a relative basis look like a much better place to invest even though we are seeing declines here in the equity markets yeah you know in relative terms it's good for us you know it's the old cleanest dirty shirt in the global economy and we are the cleanest dirty shirt in absolute terms it's not good um but the u.s market is all about pricing in a slowdown and pricing in the fact that the fed is forced to hike rates into a slow down as mike just said we have a very unusual set of circumstances and one of them is the fed being so late um to its hiking cycle so the market is trying to internalize the slow down and the fed hiking into that slow down and that's exactly what you're seeing playing out in different segments of the market there are silver linings of this three in particular but it doesn't feel good in the process how do you think we've weather um q2 earnings season i'm wondering because you know in terms of guidance companies really have a dilemma here because we do see a rollover you know in many many commodity prices from spring highs at the same time they will not be rewarded for going out and saying that they have more clarity because who knows that this sort of rollover and inflation that we've seen is is transitory or or long-lasting yeah absolutely right if you're sitting in corporate america right now your cost side looks clearer because you get you get a sense that a lot of your input prices have peaked and are coming down so on the expenditure side it looks better but on the revenue side you now have a major uncertainty about demand because high and persistent inflation is destroying demand so i suspect that you'll find that most corporate cfos are going to be cautious about the outlook not on account of the cost side which is the story for last year but on account of the revenue side what do you make of muhammad of the decline that we've seen in the treasury market in terms of yields um you know we were firmly above three percent now we're firmly below that and and it is that a good good thing ultimately certainly good for the equity markets at least for the time being yeah i would look melissa if i may at two stands they're basically flat yeah we're back to i think one basis point which tells you that the marketplace is looking at a slowdown and is looking at the fed hiking into the slowdown i mean this is the consistent stream throughout all the markets um mike santori took us through different parts of the equity market it is the same story within government bonds it is the same story between in corporate bonds it is this notion of how you price in the fed hiking into a slow down and that's exactly what's happening in in the government bond market as well that's actually a good thing though isn't that the fact that markets are in fact now starting to price it in or do you think that equity markets have not priced it in that we're seeing a price in elsewhere but not fully in equities no one knows whether it's fully or not um you know i'll go back to what joe said earlier who's leading who is it the fed that's leading the markets and therefore you can hope for a soft tisch landing or is it as i believe the market's leading the fed which means that once again the fed will be late to recognizing the change dynamics that's a really important judgment if you believe that it's the fed is the fed leading the markets then you would be more optimistic about markets in general than if you believe it's demarcus leading the fed you think it's a ladder i do i think this is the third time in the last 12 months where the markets are significantly ahead of the fed the fed is still six months behind us in terms of inflation is not transitory finally they've realized that and we've got a hike hike and the market's saying wait a minute this is a slowing economy you may not need to hike as much as you think this unconditional commitment to use chair powell's term this unconditional commitment has to be qualified by what's happening to the real economy that's what the market is telling the fed right now