저자: MohamedEl-Erian/RogerFerguson · 외국인
요약 보기
연준의 금리 인하 기대는 실물 개선이 아니라 유동성 효과에 따른 반등이며, 인플레이션이 꺾이지 않은 만큼 금리는 시장 예상보다 높고 오래 유지될 가능성이 크다는 주장. 시장 반등 배경: 연준이 '피벗'의 의미를 금리 인하·pause·둔화로 계속 바꿔 기대만 키웠고, 이는 실질 펀더멘털이 아닌 유동성 효과라는 지적. 인플레이션: 근원 CPI는 여전히 상승 중이며 최근 고금리 인상 속도가 금융 안정 리스크(금융시스템 붕괴 가능성)를 키워 연준이 속도를 늦출 수 있다는 점이 언급됨. 노동시장은 여전히 타이트하고 기업들은 임금 인상 계획을 밝힘. 일본·영국: 일본 YCC(수익률곡선 통제) 긴장과 국채 시장 기능 장애가 시스템 리스크로 지목되며, 영국 사례처럼 자산 교차 보유가 전염을 일으킬 수 있다고 경고. 투자 전략: 전술적 투자자는 과도한 반등 후 기회가 있을 수 있으나, 장기 투자자는 잘 아는 소수 종목에 집중하고 시가평가 리스크를 감수할 준비가 필요하다는 조언. 향후 전망: 시장은 펀더멘털이 유동성 랠리를 뒷받침할 때 지속 가능하며, 현재까지는 검증되지 않았기에 저점 재테스트를 우려하는 목소리가 있음. 연준은 CPI 0.1%p 하락 정도로는 충분치 않고 명확한 하락 추세를 원한다는 입장.
다듬은 글
people, the FOMC is strongly resolved to bring inflation down to two percent, and we will keep at it until the job is done. Retail sales... I think what's happening to our market, and it's wonderful to have the best week since June, it's wonderful to see the rally continue, is that we've redefined what a pivot is. We've redefined it: meaning lower rates, to pausing, to slowing. And if you redefine that, then you will have a liquidity effect, and that's what we're getting. We're getting a liquidity effect rather than a fundamental effect. In other words, we've lowered our standards, and we'll take anything at this point. Just stop the beatings.
Yeah, and there's reason for that, because there is significant value in certain parts of the market. So yes, if you just need a catalyst, um, the one thing I would caution you about: I heard Roger Ferguson earlier today say that this is not because of inflation. Inflation hasn't turned around, core CPI continues to go up. This is because of financial stability concerns, that this front-loading of rate hikes, and it's massively front-loaded, will break something in the financial system. So if the Fed does slow, it is because we have financial stability concerns. That's really bad.
Well, it depends. I mean, if they stop it from getting worse, and if this doesn't harm us and doesn't make us end up in stagflation, it would be good. All I want to say is this is a trilemma. It's not just growth versus inflation. It's growth, inflation, financial stability, and somehow the Fed has to find its way through this, as does the ECB, as does the Bank of England, the UK.
Let's talk about Japan, because there are some really interesting things there. Japan is a different issue. Keep an eye on Japan. It is a potential source of systemic risk. Look, when you fix any place against what's happening in the global economy, and in this case it's yield, it's the yield curve control. You have tensions building, and you've shown the currency, there's been massive intervention, and the one Japanese bond market hasn't functioned properly for weeks. So they're going to have to exit YCC, and the marketplace right now is saying anything that happens in Japan stays in Japan. Let's hope so. But the UK reminded us that cross-holdings of assets can create contagion.
So Muhammad, you're basically saying there are still a lot of big concerns out there. Don't get too excited by this pivot, because we've changed our definition so many times. You're not buying it just yet?
So I'm saying, if you're a tactical investor, we've probably overshot, and you have some scope here. If you're a long-term investor, focus on the few names you know well, and have a massive appetite for more mark-to-market risk, because once you go outside the US, there are still a few issues that haven't been resolved, and they speak to spillovers for us. Does this little rally make sense to you? Some people think this is the beginning of something; some people think this is a grand head fake. I think Joe summarized it very well: this is a market that repeatedly falls in love with liquidity and therefore rallies, but the sustainability of those rallies is only there if you get fundamentals improving. That is the lesson of the last two and a half years. When you're in that rally, it's incredibly powerful and incredibly rewarding, but then you need the fundamentals to follow. Looking forward, and I am among the people who don't know, the question is when fundamentals will validate a liquidity rally. That's the big question. So far, fundamentals haven't validated it, and that's why people are worried we're going to test the lows.
Part of the reason the market has done so well this month, at least in the last week or so, has been this idea that the Fed was going to slow down. Look, I think the challenge has been that the market, which is meant to be forward-looking, is also built on a kind of optimism, and I think it's disconnected from the Fed's deep commitment to getting inflation much closer to the two percent target. The market has also been hanging on ideas: first peak inflation, then pivot, and losing track of the big picture, which is that inflation is dramatically higher than the Fed likes. Labor markets are still very tight. Survey data suggests CEOs plan to increase wages going forward for some period of time. And the article Nick just wrote suggests households are actually in pretty good shape when it comes to cash. All of these things, I think, will drive the Fed to keep rates higher than maybe the market expects, and for longer. That's been the disconnect, and frankly, to me, it's a bit of a head scratcher. So overall, I was a little surprised at the strength of the market in October, because I don't think it reflects what's likely to happen in interest rates for the next maybe even year, before the Fed actually starts to reduce rates.
So even if the CPI number cools by a tenth of a percent, that's not enough, because you need to see significant cooling. It's certainly not enough. I think we've heard Chair Powell talk about it, and he used the words "clear and convincing evidence." He's a lawyer by training, and those words carry weight. So I think the market is hanging on straws of hope, that oh, the Fed's job is done. I think the Fed is not going to react to straws in the wind. They want to see very concrete evidence of a clear downward trajectory in inflation. A tenth of a point here or there is not the same as clear evidence of a general trajectory on inflation.
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