저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 챠마스는 게임스탑 등 리테일 투자자들의 집단 매매가 헤지펀드의 오래된 관행과 본질적으로 다르지 않으며, 리테일도 동등한 기회를 가져야 한다고 주장한다. [개인 거래 경험] 게임스탑 콜옵션 115개(약 12.5만 달러) 매수 후 이날 아침 청산. 거래 목적은 시장 메커니즘(공매도 잔고, 감마 스퀴즈 등)을 배우기 위함이었다고 설명. [레딧 WallStreetBets 평가] 포럼 글은 세 부류: 기업 펀더멘털을 깊이 분석하는 사람들(일부는 헤지펀드 애널리스트보다 나음), 2008년 금융위기 이후 월가에 대한 분노를 가진 사람들, 헤지펀드들이 하던 아이디어 디너 같은 담합을 공개적으로 하는 사람들. [펀더멘털 vs 모멘텀] 레딧 참여자 중에는 펀더멘털 분석가도 있지만 추세 추종 모멘텀 트레이더도 있다고 인정. 헤지펀드 역시 모멘텀에 의해 움직인다고 지적. [헤지펀드 비판] 멜빈캐피털 같은 대형 펀드도 포지션이 복제되며 손실을 봤다고 언급. 공매도 물량이 실제 발행주식을 초과하는 구조, 프라임 브로커를 통한 레버리지(10배 수준) 등 제도적 문제를 지적. 규제당국이 이런 구조를 검토해야 한다고 주장. [리테일 보호 우려] 가장 우려되는 것은 밈 주식에 뒤늦게 뛰어든 개인투자자가 손실을 보는 것. 다만 리테일 참여를 막으면 불평등이 심화된다고 반론. [빌 애크먼 허벌라이프 사례 비교] 과거 헤지펀드들이 애크먼의 공매도 포지션에 대항해 매수했던 사례와 본질적으로 다르지 않다고 주장. 차이는 레딧 참여자들이 공개적으로 토론한다는 점이며 그만큼 용기가 있다고 평가. [출연자 전망] 게임스탑 가격 전망 및 종목 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 제시하지 않음. 시장 구조 개혁과 리테일 평등 기회를 강조.
다듬은 글
hi everybody in this video i'm going to share with you what chermoff had to say regarding the recent game stock saga and why he thinks that retail investors just like you and i are going to change the stock market history and without further ado let's go to the video so you tweeted yesterday that you bought 115 calls in gamestop can you tell me what your position is as of this very moment yeah um can i can i uh tell you a little story before all of that or no why don't you tell me that first and then we'll go from there so this morning i woke up after spending all time all last night in wall street bets reading about all of this stuff um i ended up closing out my position this morning but i really want to tell you beyond the 500 grand um donation or the the money that i invested which was you know not a huge amount in the grand scheme of that stock or the entire market what i learned because i think what i learned over the last couple of days is important for everybody that's watching cnbc you have a lot of people and i would encourage anybody who is dismissive of this thing to go into wall street bets and actually just read the forums and i think that you're going to see three kinds of posts the first kind of content are a lot of people doing some incredible fundamental diligence on companies trying to think about long-term value and in my opinion many of them are doing as good and frankly a better job than a lot of hedge fund analysts that i work with that's number one the second are a lot of people who believe that you know coming out of 2008 what happened was wall street took an enormous amount of risk and they left retail as the bag holder and a lot of these kids were in grade school in high school when that happened they lost their homes their parents lost their jobs and they've always wondered like why did those folks get bailed out for taking enormous amounts of risk and nobody helped and showed up to help my family and then the third thing is a realization that instead of having idea dinners or you know quiet whispered conversations amongst hedge funds in the hamptons these kids have the courage to do it transparently in a forum and i'm not saying all of it is perfect by any means let me just go through a couple of things you you said here um i have a hard time believing i mean you suggested that there's you know a good amount of fundamental research going on underneath the gamestop reddit situation do you truly believe that that there's fundamental research not to disparage in any way that the people who are actually making these trades but this seems to be momentum rather than a deep fundamental analysis scott there's momentum in traditional hedge funds and how they move stocks as well but it's really disparaging if you the starting position is these guys can't do the same quality of research as an analyst in a fund that's just not true i didn't say that they all i didn't say i didn't say they can't do that kind of research i'm questioning whether they're actually doing the research when it comes to things like gamestop and amc and some of these other things there's a distribution and obviously at one end there are fundamental analysts but on the other end there are momentum traders that follow trends but by the way the dirty little secret of wall street is that exists in hedge fund land the reason why this gamestop trade has caused so much pain is because at the top of the pecking order was melbourne capital those guys were incredible stock pickers they are incredible fundamental modelers of companies okay gabe plotkin is one of the sort of giants of our era of my era right but at the end of the day what happens is irrespective of what he puts on his trades are mimicked and copied by umpteen other hedge funds that follow along i mean i don't think you think and you tell me you think do you think that gamestop is is worth fifty 350 a share what i can tell you is that when i put that position on a hundred and twenty five thousand dollar position i used it to acquire knowledge and learning and what i was trying to figure out is how these positions move in the modern trading era and what i can tell you is up until that point the setup made no mathematical sense how do you be short 140 percent of a company shares that wasn't retail well maybe maybe that's a question for for regulators that that maybe the whole the way that that's allowed to happen needs to be be examined but i'll tell you how it's how i'll tell you how it's allowed to happen it's allowed to happen so that hedge funds can charge 2 and 20 to their limited partners independent of consequences i'll tell you another way that it's allowed to happen hedge funds are allowed to take their money go to a prime broker and all of a sudden get 10x multiplication on that money that's the problem you have trillions of dollars of notional being traded by these organizations you have maybe billions of dollars being traded by retail about trading about momentum about stocks about short interest about gamma squeezes these are not things that i know a lot about and so i put in a small position to learn and what i learned is that people can do fundamental research come to a point of view that's diametrically opposed to organized capital and they can be right and i'm allowed to be on the right side of that you know it's not my job to go and defend a bunch of you know highly compensated hedge fund managers against losses and just the fact that for one time those folks lost we can bellyache and cry on national television to me is a joke well i mean there's a lot of kids hold on a second there's a lot of kids and a lot of people on wall street best who have made money to pay off their mortgage i read about a post yesterday of a kid that was able to pay off his entire student loans and posted it that's amazing progress i don't even i'm not i'm not suggesting and and i'm not trying to come off that way that i'm suggesting what what what's happened on wall street bets or or or what these this cohort of traders is doing is is wrong it's not i don't think that there's much of a difference from and i know it's been mentioned on this network already today but the first thing i thought of in this situation was back to the herbalife episode where you had a fairly sizable group of well-known hedge fund managers decide to take the other side of bill ackman's trade he was of course short they all went long they sure they made a fundamental case in their own mind and whatever worked for them to have the conviction that they did to take that trade part of it was undoubtedly trying to hurt the short who was bill ackman at that time maybe some of them did it through uh going to an idea dinner or whatever other forum through personal phone calls or emails and there was a large group of people on one side i don't think it's any different i don't think it's interesting you just you just said it's not different you're right idea dinners idea dinners that concept has existed for decades on wall street where people get together in closed rooms behind closed doors and usher around names of companies and they coalesce and decide to cooperate together the guys on wall street bets just do it in the public completely transparently in my opinion that takes a lot more courage because you could actually be wrong somebody can actually say hey listen what you said made completely no sense whatsoever and so what is the difference in my opinion this is the modern day instantiation of that dynamic just writ large in that scale the only thing i'm concerned about is that there are inevitably going to be people who get hurt not i'm not talking about hedge fund managers i'm not talking about them i'm talking about the people who follow people into the trade who think that this stock is going to continue to go up because that's what they've been conditioned to think in the pandemic should we because all stocks go up apparently what should we do not allow folks here's what will happen if you basically if you follow your logic then you'll say you know what retail doesn't know what they're doing i think you're wrong then then the thing will be retail shouldn't be allowed to participate in the stock market i think you're wrong and then you know what'll happen scott the inequality gap will grow and grow and grow because then if you what are they supposed to do then buy an etf a passive fund they can't find the hedge funds because the rules don't allow them to so now systematically what you've done is you entrench poverty no i've been coming that's taking it too far this is just accentuating those thoughts that that wall street's a casino and nothing more that that's what this is perpetuating so i don't think so i think this is an example of if you are going to so massively oversell a company to the extent that you're selling 40 more shares of that company that don't exist and all of a sudden other folks are like hey wait a minute if this is going to get squeezed and they buy it that's just a smart trade retail saw it wall street missed it and they paid the price so maybe to your point scott what regulators should do is say hey wait a minute how can we allow companies to be 140 short that doesn't make any sense maybe that's what should happen they trade day over day massively levered small swings so basically what you're saying is hey if retail runs a momentum play to squeeze a short that's wrong but hey if renaissance technologies and somebody else does it that's okay that's what you're saying you may not know that that's what you're saying but that's what you're saying and to me that feels very unknown oh no whatever what i'm saying is someone's gonna get screwed okay someone's gonna get screwed and it's gonna be the one of the retail it's going to be a retail investor who gets screwed because they think that this is the way the game works that this is the new wall street they're new to this game maybe they haven't been in the game that long not everybody not trying to say that in any way shape or form but somebody's going to get hurt i'm not talking about the billionaire with the big house in the hamptons i'm talking about the person who thinks this is cool fun and an exciting way to spend their time i'm not i'm not i'm not taking away that there's an element of that but you're really discounting how smart so many of these people are okay and all i would encourage you to do is spend a little time in these forums go into the discord server and you're not going to hear a bunch of bros just washing around you're going to hear a bunch of really really smart people talking about things in fundamental ways basically chamaf is saying that times have changed in the past fund managers usually group up to talk about certain stocks and they decide to pump up certain stocks or even short certain stocks together and the fact is the last one in line is always the retail investors and to charm off this gamestop scenario is totally different the retail investors in wall street bets have the courage to voice out their thoughts and have the courage to fight for it as a whole together personally i can feel the fire within charmath he feel that every single one should have the same opportunities to have the same level game in the stock market because he feels that many big fans manager have unfair advantage through having sophisticated tools and some information that retail investors just like you and i are unable to access to thank you so much for watching i hope you benefit from this video if you can relate to any part of this video or if you agree with any part that chamas say feel free to share this video out with your friends and family and share with them that times have changed retail investors just like you and i should have the same playing field with big fans manager i will see you in my next video
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