저자: 미상 · 외국인
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Michael Burry의 '대폭락의 어머니' 경고가 아직 끝나지 않았다는 취지의 영상. Burry는 S&P 500이 1900포인트까지, 약 53% 하락할 수 있다고 봄. 과거 약세장 사례 기준. Burry는 최근 반등을 약세장 랠리로 보고 매도 대상으로 봄. Grantham도 초거품의 마지막 국면이며 최악은 아직 오지 않았다고 주장. 경기 지표 측면에서 아마존의 창고 폐쇄·신규 시설 계획 취소, 모기지 금리 상승에 따른 주택 매물 감소, 중국 성장 전망 하향이 제시됨. 중국은 위안화 절하 가능성, 유럽은 에너지 위기 심화 및 침체 또는 공황 우려가 언급됨. 구리 가격 하락과 금속 시장 약세도 경기 둔화 신호로 해석됨. 연준은 인플레이션을 잡기 위해 주식시장 하락을 의도하고 있으며, S&P 500이 19% 이상 하락하면 디플레이션 효과가 나타난다는 논리가 제시됨. 진행자는 연준이 자산가격 하락을 통해 인플레이션을 잡으려 한다고 보며, 그 과정에서 주가가 추가로 급락할 것이라고 결론.
다듬은 글
doomsday is here ry is back this time warning investors that stocks could drop 53 percent before bottoming let's head over we picked today's story up with big short investor Michael burry warned the biggest market bubble in history would end with the mother of all crashes he just hinted the collapse is an hour away Michael Murray sounded the alarm on the greatest Speck of the bubble of all time in all things last summer concoction investors bind into the hype that they were headed for the mother of all crashes doomsday is finally here he hinted in a sense deleted tweet this week and the fund manager of The Big Short Fame shared a screenshot of the S P 500 chart showing the Benchmark stock market index has stumbled 18 percent from its December Peak despite several blistering rallies this year and yet I keep getting asked when crash he tweeted poking fun at some of his followers poor spelling and underline his view that the market apps is underway and part of this is you know a lot of investors don't understand they they see a move down in the markets and they think well that's the end it dropped 25 and that's kind of a mild bear Market it must be over or it dropped 35 well that's the average bear Market it's got to be over and what happens is it's much like a roller coaster you come down and all of that gets washed out of the market and then you get a little upswing and everyone just breathes aside releases well the worst is behind us and then what happens is there's another big dip and that's what happens in Bear markets you get these big moves down followed by a relief rally a big move down and all it is is people buying into the hope that the worst is behind them when Asbury says the worst is yet to come and let's take a look at that since deleted tweet and what he's showing here in my circling in red is he's saying look this is the beginning of a topping pattern that's going to lead to stocks heading much lower and Bernie suggested made that the S P 500 could drop as low as 1900 points or another 53 percent over the next year based on how pass crashes have played out moreover he has dismissed the rebounds and stocks this year's bear Market rallies or dead Camp bounces temporary reprieves among the road to an inevitable disaster and if stocks were to drop about 50 percent from where they are today you're now talking about stock prices going back to where they were in 2015.
if you can only imagine that could be your generational buying opportunity the Zion Asset Management Chief stance seems to be that the boom of markets is over and the stocks are headed downward and any rallies will prove short-lived and probably should be sold Jimmy grantha who he covered in yesterday's show and other Dooms saying investor and Market historian also Shrugged off the recent upturn in the stocks as a bearer Market rally and a new research note entitled entering the super bubbles Final Act and like bury he warned of an unprecedentedly dangerous mix of hugely overpriced assets commodity price shocks and a Federal Reserve intent on Curbing inflation by cooling the economy and the FED has made no bones about it they want to see stocks come down and they want to see them come down now and that is their plan is to pull asset prices down until inflation breaks and each cycle is different and unique but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come according to Grantham and what the where the worst shouldn't be coming is to your portfolio in this Mega crash to bury and grants were predicting I'll put a link up here to portfolio shield and the description below because what I want you to do is look at the news and this is something a lot of people don't do really well is just look at the news and try to determine is the worst behind you or is it worse yet to come and when we look at what's coming it tells you we're not out of the woods yet because check this out Amazon closed as a bandage plans for dozens of U.S warehouses and they've planned to close the Maryland facility with 300 plus workers in October and according to Amazon they've reduced the size of their sprawling delivery operation get this amid slowing sales growth and has abandoned dungeons of existing and plant facilities around the U.S and not only that but they've killed plans to open 42 facilities totally in almost 25 million square feet of usable space and again you think about is this something you hear in an economic boom of slowing sales growth we're going to close down plants we're going to shutter factories we're going to reduce our footprint no those are all things you hear during the recession or going into recession how about we look at the lending space use mortgage rates on the rise hitting the highest level since the end of June now is this something you hear during a housing boom no it's just the opposite because the surge in mortgage rates this year has led to a sudden sales slowdown with fewer interested buyers of the market sellers are holding back and with the four weeks through August 21 new listings drop 15 percent from the same period a year earlier the biggest get this annual decline since the start of the pandemic and again is this telling you that demand for Real Estate is coming back no it tells you it's going the opposite direction and the economy moves really slow so it takes time for these things to actually hit the economy suggesting that again things are likely to get worse before they get better and China's growth prospects weekend as economists cut 2023 forecasts and we need the world needs shine to be growing because they're a big nation of consumers the downgrade suggests economists aren't convinced that beijing's recent stimulus measures which more recently include one trillion you want in funds largely for infrastructure projects and central bank rate Cuts can help counter ah the Slowdown and what have we talked about on this show what comes if they can't get to see seamless to work that's right they devalue their currency that's the last shoe to drop and I expect to see that from China at some point in the future and how about this out of Europe their energy crisis deepens after Russia keeps pipelines shut as a group of crucial pipeline will no longer reopen as planned after works Europe was plunged deeper into crisis as Russia again halted his key gas line Pipeline and definitely a move to Crowd by European politicians as attempt to use energy as a weapon and what an effective weapon it is because we need energy in our economies you don't have no energy no growth really plain and simple so for Europe now you're seeing what is their likely case are they likely to you know turn back and resume into an expanding economy are they likely to further contract and maybe if they're lucky only have a recession but likely seeing a depression coming in the near future but Clinton won because how about we look at the metal space you see the metals route deepens as China lockdowns add to growth fears again not the type of headline you want to hear as a wave of risk aversion hit some markets on Thursday dragging copper down to a near one month low now why does copper matter because think about this where do copper prices go when the economy the global economy is booming or expanding they're going up they don't see them go down down when things are getting better it's a leading indicator telling you where things are likely headed and what bury has been warning about but brow beating stockballs won't in the face of rising fed Hall is just hostility as S P 500 is 19 drawdowns tended to foreshadow inflation Peak something we've talked about on this show it's hands tied when it comes to unwinding Supply straws in tight labor market Jerome Powell Central Bank has made an unusually explicit Target of asset prices as I've made the case with one thing fed Bank president Neil kashcari going as far as saying he was happy to see Sheriff's tank after Powell's hawkish turn at Jackson Hole and that is the key point the lingering danger for stocks is getting them to fall as his merits when it comes to relieving price pressures in the economy besides this chilling effect on consumers that got an equity Market has usually been a pre-requested for subduing the worst bounce of inflation and again this is the case we've made on this show over and over that the FED really does want the stock market to come down and if they can get it down they bring inflation down but the problem is they bring it down they crash the economy with it of course when we see of course as deflationary effects have historically started to kick in when the S P 500 drops more than 19 percent and it breached that level in June and is now once again approaching it and with the central bank's goal to beat the inflation the equity Market will be the Catalyst not the Observer with prices employment and wages lining up to give spending the Boost the FED has only left with one thing driving equities down in order to reverse growth and here you can see a chart of the Consumer Price Index in blue and the total U.S stock market or the Wilshire 5000 in red both on the year of year rate change and what do you see Equity prices in red start to contract and head lower and then inflation comes down Equity prices fall inflation comes down Equity prices trending down inflation down here we can see it again the stock market heading down telling us that the plan for the FED is bring stocks down bring inflation down in the course when that happens as Brewery is predicting well stock prices aren't going to just stop going down they're going to outright craft and with that Vans bye now
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