저자: 빌밀러 · 외국인
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결론: 빌 밀러는 페이스북·아마존·에이본 등에 대해 장기적으로 긍정적이며, 특히 아마존과 에이본의 상승 여력을 강조했다. 페이스북: 성장률은 둔화됐지만 22억 사용자와 강력한 해자를 근거로 장기 보유 관점을 유지. 2018년 140달러대에 두 차례 추가 매수했고, 당시 주가는 PER 14~15배 수준으로 보았다. 사용자 수익화(인스타그램 포함) 여지가 남아 있다고 봤다. 시장 변동성: 최근 10년간 5% 이상 조정이 23회(연 2회 수준)라며, 변동성을 수익화할 수 있는 시장이라고 봤다. 퀀트·추세추종 펀드와 ETF 자금 쏠림이 시장 구조를 바꿔 함께 움직이게 만들며, 잠재적 위험이 될 수 있다고 언급. 레스토레이션하드웨어(RH): 2018년 말 이후 매수한 주요 보유 종목. 고가 가구 시장을 장악 중이며, 작년 자사주 50%를 40~45달러에 매입했다. 130달러대에서는 과거 30달러대만큼 매력적이지는 않지만 여전히 지배적 기업이라고 평가. 에이본(AVP): 최근 신규 편입 종목. 시가총액 약 8억 달러, 주가 2달러 미만. 새 경영진과 전략 변화로 3~5년 내 10배 상승 가능성을 주장. 2014~15년 코티의 100억 달러 인수 제안을 거절한 점도 언급. 하락 위험은 주가에 상당 부분 반영됐다고 봤고, 3달러 돌파 시 전략이 작동하고 있다는 신호로 보았다. 발표 후 주가는 약 14~19% 상승. 아마존: 광고 사업과 AWS, 제3자 판매 비중 확대에 주목. 국제 부문은 아직 적자이나 수년 내 개선 전망. 고점 대비 약 20% 낮아 매력적이며, 향후 3년간 매출 20~25% 성장과 마진 확대를 가정하면 주가가 3년 내 2배가 될 수 있다고 주장. 애플: 재무구조가 견고하고 연 500억 달러 잉여현금흐름을 창출하는 기업으로 장기 보유 관점에서 괜찮다고 평가. 자신도 오랫동안 보유 중. 출연자 전망: 빌 밀러는 페이스북·아마존·애플에 대해 장기 긍정, 에이본은 다년간 고수익 가능성 제시. 데이비드 페이버는 에이본 인수 거절 판단에 의문을 제기.
다듬은 글
you've got to be you're smiling because hey it's warm but be your big Facebook owner Facebook is soaring what do you think of the quarter and are you adding to your Facebook position no we're not adding right now we added in the 140s twice actually once a year ago when Mark Zuckerberg was getting raked over the coals in front of Congress and then again recently when the stock was again the the suffering from a gloomy consensus let's call it and trading around 14 to 15 times earnings this is the worst quarter Facebook has had in terms of revenue growth up 30% and you know 2.2 billion users it's hard to find fault with the the economics of the business except that how much bigger can it get is there well there's not a lot of growth per se and certainly in users I think there's still monetization of the users and monetization of Instagram and things like that so again the the company of with that kind of global scope has an enormous moat around it and I think that's it's going to be very tough and with the new money they're spending on security or not it's gonna be very tough for anybody to push them aside you know going into the commercial break David Faber showed a chart of the best stocks this month Xerox up 43 percent this month GE up 38 percent this month okay after the worst December since 1928 what do you make of these insane market in stock swings collapsing then rebec that is that a healthy market it's it's it's a market that can be exploited I think you can monetize the volatility in the market which is what we try and what we try and do there have been 23 Corrections of 5% or more in the last ten years so 2 per year and Corrections go deep enough to scare everybody out and and also then the market I guess market structure has been changed in my opinion by the combination of money and ETFs a quant trend-following quant funds and repaired products and so they tend to all move together are they harmful I think potentially are harmful i ejaculated friend of mine you know said that the etf thing or the ED and the passive money has is a potential threat I don't think it is now but it could be down the road we talked a lot with you about Amazon and Facebook I want to ask you about a totally different name because we're so concerned that housing is I don't wanna say collapsing but it's slowing down one biggest positions is RH Restoration Hardware $4,000 sofas build what makes it attractive well part of why it's attractive now is if they've kind of taken over the high end of that market with their 40,000 square-foot 40,000 square foot stores and so it's a it's a company that that we started buying in the 20s when Gary Friedman the CEO started buying a lot of stock they bought back 50% of their shares last year in probably an average cost of around 40 to 45 dollars so it's not as attractive at a hundred and thirty as it was at thirty but it's still it's still a dominant dominant company the average furniture store in America is about 7,000 square feet I'll wrap it up with this what's the last most exciting new stock that you've added hey Vaughn Stefan hey Yvonne Yvonne was an Avon Avon was it a 70 year low EVP we talk about the makeup company dollar 95 or something like that yes brand-new management all up and down couple under million of free cash flow the proper strategy now for the first time in years if not decades and we think it's a company that it could be a 10 bagger in the next three to five years Avon is a 10 bagger a company that would be could be a Cody Rd offered 10 billion for the company I think in 2014 or 15 it's got an 800 million market cap right now this is a company though bill I don't think it's not you know TV you know fake news to say there's people who are worried about avons long-term sustainability as a company well that's pretty well reflected in the price of under $2 I think but we think it's we think it's it's it's a very interesting risk reward on Avon and I think that the I won't say worst case but I'd say it's gonna be tough for you to lose money in the stock over the next few years given how much it's you know down in the past couple of years alone and your and your Yvonne's moving right now the stock is up 14% on your comments is is this a this a long-term hold a your Atlas your value guy or a long-term guy but even you would say if I go from X to Y and it's this kind of percentage move I've got to rethink my position no how long would you hold an Avon we'd hold them as long as we think we can learn an excess rate of return by holding up and still right now oh yeah yeah right it's you know it's it's now it was a lose $2.50 I think about three or four months ago so it's kind of making a home here between the you know dollar 75 and 225 level if it breaks out above three dollars I think that'll tell us that the strategies are working I think we'll know that by the end of this year David Faber I mean I know you've talked a lot about Avon what do you think of this move the bankers got to be happy or unhappy I don't know by the way we should tell bill is that and you stocks up 19% now on I think in part on mr.
Miller's comments right there first I can remember when they were turning down a bid from Cody that they absolutely positively should have taken without a doubt but Bill I wanted to come back to you for a moment here on Amazon I think we're going to be hearing after the close obvious I remember you positive on the stock throughout and the good and the bad and particularly in some tough times where your opinion ended up of course being the correct one what are you looking for after the bell what should we be focused on overall in terms of both the earnings and on the conference call you know it's it's it's an interesting situation I I tend to focus on the advertising business and on AWS and then the the mix shift where the third-party sellers are now more than 50% of retail so that you're not seeing the sales growth in retail that you used to see you're seeing good margins and I think also you know International is still losing money and I think that's that in the next couple of years that will turn but you know Amazon is doing so many different things and it's so dominant and it's you know it's about 20% below its it's high so I think it's very attractive in here why is it very attractive in here because I think that the the business itself on the top line is probably going to grow around 20 to 25 percent a year for the next at least three years and so and the margins should continue to expand so if the valuation doesn't change and I don't think the valuation should change that in terms of enterprise value to EBIT price the sales that kind of thing then the stock will double in three years in the markets not going to double in three years hey Bill it's Sarah I wanted to ask about Apple I don't think you own it in the fun but I've heard you talk about it in the past and and view it favorably we just came off of an Apple quarter which was well received by Wall Street but also can show that iPhone sales are declining is that a good bet right now after the big sell-off but we saw from the last quarter well we sold that we'd both bought and sold Apple well I own Apple personally have owned it for a long time you know it's if you want to company with a fortress balance sheet that's dominant that is I'd say safe that generates 50 billion of free cash flow then Apple Apple looks ok in here Billa you know guys today I want to jump back in because B we talked about a bond and you'd reference and David reference it as well that toady because the consumer products cosmetics company had made a 10 billion dollar bid just off camera before we sat down you told me that you've started adding your chukoti is that a new position for you or are you adding to an existing position that's a personal position of my personal position of yours yeah but I started buying around $8 because that's a stock is down 50% in a 12-month period is that a similar story to a bond cody's pretty highly leveraged J a B the the the the private equity firm buying everything controls it but they bought every share that was a building blocks around 8 and a half dollars the new CEO who just came in he bought about fifteen million dollars with the stock at eight and a half seven percent yield on it so yeah I think that most of the damage has been done you
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