저자: 미상 · 외국인
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2023년 2월 초 SPY 주간차트에서 407 돌파를 확인해 강세 추세가 확정됐다고 주장. 2월은 조정 가능성이 있으나 295~294 지지 위에서는 매수 관점 유지. 나스닥100·다우·러셀2000·VIX(20 이하) 등 전반적으로 강세 흐름이며, 하락 전환은 294 이탈 시로 제시.
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is February going to bring back the bear to the stock market first up let's take a look at a weekly chart of spy he week is closed and on this weekly chart you can see that we did get the confirmation of the bull breakout which was only requiring spy to close Above This critical resistance level at spy 407 and we closed well above that level all the way up here at spy 412.
now keep in mind when you get a bullish January to start the year it is very likely that February is going to be a lot of consolidation and relatively a much weaker month following a very bullish January so it's only February 3rd and it's only the first couple of trading days of the month but I instantly want you to have more realistic expectations that the Face Ripper that was January is very likely going to start cooling down in February and we need to do a little bit of consolidation even if that means we go sideways to down before we can go any higher so looking at this weekly chart we have the the confirmed breakout we have many months in the making of this bull Trend which is now a confirmed bull Trend if you're being objective of higher highs and higher lows and this is on the weekly chart so this is not going to be something that is taken lightly if you just go look at all of the Bears that were projecting the SPX was going down to 3200 in the first quarter of this year they are going to instantly start backpedaling on those predictions now that the chart is telling them otherwise and you are going to see that over the coming weeks now keep in mind if there is any smart money that is missing this rally for whatever reason because yes even smart money sometimes gets it wrong they are going to want to scare you out of your long position so that they can buy into the market as The Bull Trend continues and that is very likely why we are going to see this week February as we do a little bit of backfilling and back testing before we go higher so just drawing this out what we could very likely see over the coming weeks is we could easily see a back test of this breakout and we could consolidate in this range before we go any higher and that could give us a very choppy and messy month of February before we go any higher which could take us out into March and April so if we draw the trend line now because we do have the bull Trend you want to be bullish on spy above the breakout level at 407 and then if we break the breakout level then you need to go down to spy 395.
if the Bulls can hold this critical support zone between 395 and 407 it is still possible we are just putting in higher lows before the next higher highs and that is exactly what defines a bull Trend based on price action remember there's nothing magical about a trend it is simply whether or not it's higher highs and higher lows or lower highs and lower lows and right now on this weekly chart we very clearly did get the higher high after the higher low so we are calling this a bull Trend it is that simple so there is nothing subjective about it this is a 100 objective bull trend of a higher high after a higher low and as you can tell we are going up on increasing volume and the last thing we we saw happen was a strong bounce off of a rising 200 weekly simple moving average so strictly looking at objective technical analysis we are looking bullish so we need to consider the fact that we are going into a bull market from here all right jumping over to the daily chart of spy we have two critical resistance levels to pay attention to and that is going to be spy 414 and the previous daily High which was just below 417.
if we clear all of that we should have a very easy trip to fill the Gap at 421 and the critical support level is still going to be this breakout right around spot 408 if we break down below spy 408 the next critical support will be right around 403 and 400 and there is a very good chance the Bulls defend those support levels because they do have the bull trend on the NASDAQ 100 triple cues we were down 1.78 today and the triple cues did hold up above that Gap fill which is that Target right around 303 which does tell me the Bears are not as strong as you would have expected especially after Apple reported earnings and missed on Rev Revenue so you have to ask yourself in this bull Trend why are the Bears unable to do something as simple as filling a gap after an overextended condition outside the upper Bollinger band and if you really think about it it goes to tell you that the Bears are not as strong as some people want you to believe if everybody was dying to get out of this market and smart money was selling and dumb money was buying it would have been an absolute bloodbath today and it just simply was not we didn't even close the gap and we're still we above a very positive sloping 5 EMA so this trend is still very bullish and very strong so just be objective and don't let anybody scare you out of your long positions just set your risk at support and you can stay bullish as long as we're above support there's no reason to over complicate it now with that being said yesterday was a great sell because we were over extended so if you sold at that resistance that is just called being a disciplined Trader and locking in profits however don't confuse a pullback in a cooling down period with bearish we need to lose support in the next support we need to lose is going to be be this critical support between 297 and 294.
remember this is a giant double bottom off of 260 while we're above 294 so you can stay bullish as long as we are above 294 which means this is going to be a buy the dip Market above 294. from here we could start running all the way into 320s but we will need to break Above This previous daily high right around 312.
if at any point we lose the support trend line or the neckline breakout at 294 then you can get a lot more bearish because we're very likely coming down to fill the Gap at 288. on the Dow Jones we were down 0.43 today and the Dow Jones is still building out this flag which is a bull flag and it's still finding resistance at the top of the flag at 341.
a bull breakout will be above 341 and then we have resistance at 343 346 and then above that we have the price Target at 350. if we continue lowering the flag the next support will be the bottom of the flag right around 332 to 333 and if we break out of the flag we'll be looking for critical support at 327.
on the Russell 2000 IW metf we were down 0.67 as we continue to find resistance in sellers around our price Target around 197 so we need to break above 197 to get to the next Target higher at 201 as you can tell this is a very strong bull Trend with a very strong Trend ever since we got the bull breakout above 188 so don't be surprised if we just see shallow pullbacks and continue to climb higher towards that next price Target we could come all the way down to the breakout around 188 and still be bullish but if that's too far away to manage a risk from just take profits at resistance and then get more bullish when the resistance breaks because that will be your newfound support which is your brand new risk level on The RK ETF we were down 3.51 percent after we are seeing a rejection from that resistance right around 44.5 and we still do have a gap to fill to the downside right around 42 so there is a good chance we need to go a little bit lower and fully close that Gap if the Bulls are strong enough that Gap could remain opened and we could start pushing higher towards the next Target which is just below 46 so you can stay bullish as long as we're above the breakout zone right around 42 and then if we break below 42 we're likely coming back down to the previous breakout at 40.4 on the vix we were down 2.14 today and I continue to tell you the vix below 20 means there's just not a lot of fear in this market and that is exactly what you see in a bull market a lot of people keep thinking because the vix is low that's bearish and it means the vix is about to spike and while that may be true if you go look in Bull markets that is not the case the vix usually does trade below 20 in a bull market so we got the bull breakout in the S P 500 and the vix is being relatively suppressed below 20 so overall this is still telling us this is bull market behavior and we're only getting more bearish if the vix does indeed start closing back above 20 but we will know it when we see it and right now we just don't see it on bitcoin we're still trading right around 23 400 as Bitcoin is just building this bull flag out above all of the moving averages so we still do have the bull Trend breakout zone right around 22 400.
from here we can reach 25 000 next but we will have some resistance right around 24 000 460. on Amazon stock we were down eight point four three percent because we did see the earnings after the Bell yesterday so there was a lot of profit taking and a lot of sellers because we were just way too far over extended outside that upper boundary band and that was sort of a blow off top look so this is not as bearish as you would think it is simply correcting the overbought condition now following price action what is bearish is if we lose the support at 102 so you're instantly getting more bearish if we lose support at 102 because we're likely coming back down towards 98.
if we lose 98 we could come all the way down to fill the Gap at 90 so you need to manage your risk very closely around this support Zone if we start to bounce off 102 we will likely come all the way back up towards 113 and fully closing the Gap at 115. on Microsoft stock we were down 2.36 percent as Microsoft is cooling down after being overextended yesterday which again is No Surprise because we were just way too far outside that upper Bollinger band from here we can find support at the gap for that 255 or the support at 252 and then bounce up here and fully close the gap at 265 and the next price Target at 267.
get more cautious if we lose the support below because that does mean we could be heading back down towards 2 42. on Nvidia stock we were down 2.81 today as Nvidia is finding sellers around our resistance at 213 but overall this is still a bull Trend which means we could be heading higher towards the next Target at 2 30 as long as we're above all these moving averages if we start losing this support zone right around 207 look for the next leg lower down here at 192 and if we lose 192 you do need to get more cautious of downside which could take us back down towards 179.
on Tesla stock we were up 0.91 today as Tesla is reaching some very critical resistance right around 196 and this is where I expect to see Tesla topping out in the short term before we do some type of consolidation before we can go any higher obviously I'm instantly wrong if we break that support and above that the next Target will be right around 205.
so watch that strong resistance right around 196 and critical support levels will be 183 173 and 167. on Apple stock we were up 2.44 which is surprising because if you look Apple did Miss on their revenue so usually when a big company like apple misses on Revenue you're going going to see a bloodbath in the market but we simply did not see that today so that is why following price action is way more important than thinking you know the fundamentals of a stock because a Miss on earnings should have had this thing sending down into a tailspin of selling and it simply did not this is a bullish engulfing candle after I miss on earnings and we did get the bull breakout above 150 and we did reach our next price Target at 156.
so it's important to follow price action because the market will fool the majority and right now the price action is telling you this is a Raging Bull Trend you can get more cautious now if we lose support at 150 for The Gap field down here right around 146 but you need to stay on the bull as long as we continue to put higher lows so if we bounce off 146 you can buy the dip in this stock because it's likely heading up towards the 160s and 170 next on the financials we were down 0.19 but overall we still hav are down point five two percent with 0.29 percent continuing the rejection from 134 and likely heading to 131 next the energy sector was down 0.22 percent with the price action below at 82.6 so jump it back over to the S P 500 we had a very very bullish week on a very bullish breakout which is 100 objective following the price action and the trend so it does look like we are going to remain in this bull Trend which means it is going to be a buy the dip market and if you continue to try to short the market you are going to get very frustrated it's okay to be bearish but wait until we get to some very critical resistance levels to short the market because you're going to have a very difficult time shorting a bull Trend because the path of least resistance in a bull trend is still higher so I don't care whether you're shorting or going long just manage a risk and it's going to be a lot easier of a Time on you if you're going long at support instead of drawing the short every rally with email and text message if you want to learn more about bank or want to learn how to subscribe just click wan the members only videos you need to come join the stocks updates during the da
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