저자: Adi/진행자Andrew · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 캐시 우드의 ARK 펀드는 2018년 이후 단기 성과는 나스닥에 뒤처졌지만, 5년 이상 장기로 보면 나스닥을 크게 앞섰다는 취지의 영상. [기사 비판] 진행자는 ARK가 2018년 이후 나스닥에 뒤처졌다는 기사를 언급하며, 기사가 2018년부터의 기간만 골라 성과를 부각했다고 지적. [기간별 성과] 2016년 설정 이후 ARK는 나스닥을 크게 앞섰고, 2015년 이후 5년 기준으로도 ARK 227%, QQQ 185% 수준이라고 제시. 팬데믹 직전까지 설정 이후 ARK 187%, QQQ 127%. [2020년 급등과 조정] 2020년 3월 이후 급등은 모멘텀 매매와 알고리즘 추종에 따른 것이며, 이후 금리 영향으로 급락. 300%에서 175% 수준으로 내려온 것을 펀드 책임만으로 보기는 어렵다는 입장. [펀드 구성] 자율주행·AI, 로보틱스, 유전체, 블록체인 관련 파괴적 혁신 기업 중심. 테슬라, 코인베이스, 로빈후드, 텔라닥 등이 주요 보유 종목으로 언급. 아직 흑자가 아니거나 막 흑자 전환 단계인 기업이 많음. [전망] 피터 린치 사례처럼 단기 부진이 있어도 장기 보유자에게는 성과가 나올 수 있다는 견해. 구체적 가격 전망은 없음. [출연자 견해] Adi는 장기 관점 유지를 강조하며 'ARK 장기 보유 시 성과 기대' 쪽에 가까운 입장. 다만 미래 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hello everybody this is andrew i'm here having a chat with rd and we want to talk about uh hot topic these days uh about the market pullback or market crash specifically one fund uh that is uh was very well known last year arc by katy woods which is the disruptive technologies uh uh one of the things and comments that uh you know i've read recently actually an article very recently that uh you know you see actually here and it says the category arc lagged the nasdaq since 2018 while they're collecting over 200 million dollars in fees and that's to me when you read this news that's bizarre that you know you can't even beat the market and collect 200 million dollars uh what is it about rd can you can you tell us is it a scam that they're running this you know actively managed fund but they can't even beat the market yeah it's so interesting andrew when when you showed me this article and i think the first thing i said is it's a classic hit piece because they really smartly exclusively selected from 2018 to now and that's how it kind of tailored their data to show that oh you know she's done such a terrible job i mean does active management be passive investing that's a totally different conversation we could do an episode on it but uh you know i think in defense of cassie woods which is really hard thing to do these days is you know hair mandate is a five-year time frame in disruptive technology and yes true from 2018 she's lagged but uh if you look at her since inception in 2016 she's actually beat nasdaq by a really wide margin so let's uh let's take a look at it actually i like i like to see that so that's the chart that's uh uh compares arc and nasdaq so the the orange line that you see is the nasdaq and the blue one is arc and you're then they're right the article is actually right so you know starting from 2018 if you start right from 2018 here what you see here arc return 115 and qqq return only 145 and that's a huge lag that they have uh but what you said is uh you know you they they hand pick this data and what's the time frame that we should really look at yeah you should definitely look at since inception since uh you know her her five-year time frame because that's how she makes her fundamental models is based on five-year assumptions and for anybody who's interested uh if you have a github account you can actually go to git and download her models she actually put them for free because she wants to kind of get challenged she wants other people to look at her models she doesn't keep them proprietary so yeah when you look at a five five year time frame uh she's she's beaten as like by a white margin so that's starting from uh 2019 if you go it's like for example let's say 2015 which she started her font uh we go back like uh you know up to you know like uh let's say for example the the five year so arc actually returned 227 and qq return only 185 and qqq is a very aggressive the return is amazing on this technology sector so even so when you look at the five year so she actually returned 200 so it's even more you know than the qqq by a wide margins like almost 50 percent uh so that that some seems to me like some sort of fishy journalism or not fishy it's a questionable journalism that they exactly select a period that she she's lost and then they come up with something that capture your attention and you click but cathy wood herself says that you have to look at it you know these are disruptive technology they're not supposed to return tomorrow uh so what is this a huge run so if you look at it for example uh starting from let's let let me actually see if i can actually go you know from the inception all the way up to let's say sorry all the way up to before pandemic pure pandemic so pre-pandemic she was beating you know since inception arc was at 187 percent qqq was at 127 and then the pandemic happens you know obviously everything goes down and then we're going to have the recovery what was that what's that huge recovery that you know we saw let's say back to five years what's this recovery from march 20 all the way up to this 600 percent return all the way up to pick up 21.
what is that ali yeah you know this is this is kind of a double-edged sword right because because so much of our holdings were really disruptive they started grabbing a lot of attention and then a lot of the algos got behind it because of momentum trading so that's that's pure momentum you see over 2020 until early 2021 and then of course when the momentum turns when the tide turns it's it's the exact opposite right so um you know just if you think last week last few weeks out because the correction is completely correlated and it's because of interest rate um before that is is purely just paying back that momentum play that was in 2020.
so so i think uh so i think what you know what what we are seeing here this is obviously a momentum you know just nobody there is too short or you know the supply really is uh you know much smaller than demand and price goes up and obviously you can expect such a drop like that but you know after that for almost a year it really traded in a range bound and that seems like reasonable and this drop that we're seeing here right now it's the drop on obviously because of interest rate and everything is dropping so looking at this shot obviously this is just not her fault so she's not she shouldn't be responsible for this answering for this drop from 300 percent to you know like you know 175 compared to nasdaq but uh you know people should see in a bigger time frame and obviously what i see here that when the fund started you know it lagged nasdaq for a couple of years which kind of makes sense because these are disruptive technology yes adi so what are the what are the holdings what's the hermande do you know but i know you know about her fonza um what's their mandates and i i know she's in tesla coin uh robin hood yeah so she got i think five five different uh categories on ai robotics uh genomics technology and yeah it's it's mostly companies that are either barely free cash flow positive or you know expected to make profit in in the future and are truly disruptive so you know tesla is one of their bigger biggest holding you know square coin anything blockchain related in genomics you know teledoc companies in that nature which got really over overvalued during the pandemic but now now it's kind of normalizing so i mean you know andrew here's another thing it's not her fault that she became a famous fund manager in 2020 and everyone bought kinda at the top you know i think she's being unfairly penalized yeah no that's that's a very valid point that something when something goes up like that uh you know and it comes down she's not uh you know i think and you mentioned that there's a lot of fun managers uh like peter lynch that they had some you know extraordinary return and they may you know outperform a little bit in the next couple of years which is normal yeah yeah no you know we talked about this in after hours with traders right like same thing happened with peter lynch is everyone remembers peter lynch now as this legendary fund manager but the truth is if you look at years to their year to year basis uh there were some years that you know a lot of investors were struggling investing with peter lynch uh you just had to stay with him from really the beginning all the way up to the end and i i feel like i mean of course no one can predict the future but i feel like kind of same thing is happening with catholics it's quite interesting to watch it unfold awesome well thank you so much adi that was a quick uh discussion that andy and i had and we thought that maybe we can just make a video and so what do you think uh you know community youtube you give us a comment feedback what do you think and if you know we would love to hear your comments and you know yeah we love to learn from the community and youtube uh uh traders and investors as well anything else i do you want to add and we are by the way from uh uh peak capital office uh recording this for you oh yeah no we would love to love to hear everyone else's uh comment if anybody's investing uh with cassie uh we'd love to hear from you yeah thanks andrew you guys bye
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