저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 중국·러시아의 금 매집과 연준 긴축 기대 속 채권 붕괴·인플레이션 심화를 전제로 금과 실물자산 보유를 권고한다. 금 시장 전망: 중국·러시아 중앙은행은 달러 이후 체제를 대비해 조용히 금을 계속 사들이고 있다고 주장. 금 가격은 약 1800달러 부근에서 횡보하지만 연준 긴축 기대에도 하방이 제한적이어서 큰 상승 전환이 임박했다고 봄. 상승 트리거는 연준의 금리 인상 실패·후퇴 또는 인플레이션 통제 실패. 채권·인플레이션: 채권 시장 붕괴가 명목이든 실질이든 임박했으며, 미국 국채 보유자는 큰 손실을 입는다고 경고. 디플레이션론자 Harry Dent는 1930년대 식 사고에 갇혀 있고 실제로는 대규모 인플레이션(어쩌면 하이퍼인플레이션)이 온다고 반박. 주식·부동산: 달러 표시 가격은 올라 보여도 금 기준으로는 주식·부동산이 하락하며, 자산 가치 착시에 주의해야 한다고 강조. 버블기 상승분은 디플레이션기에 금 대비 급락할 것으로 전망. 인플레이션세: 인플레이션은 사실상 정부의 숨은 세금으로, 저소득·중산층에 가장 큰 타격. 바이든의 '40만 달러 미만 증세 없음' 공약은 허위라고 비판. 정부 부채 효과: 인플레이션은 정부 부채의 실질 가치를 줄이지만 채권자 전체에 부담을 떠넘김. 채권·달러 표시 자산 전반이 손실. 투자 전략: 채권은 피하고 실물·생산 자산(사업체 지분, 부동산, 설비, 광물, 에너지, 농업)과 금을 보유. 금은 통화 위기 이후 재화폐화될 것이며 번영으로 가는 길은 금본위제 복귀라고 주장. 달러 붕괴 시 유로·엔도 안전하지 않다고 봄.
다듬은 글
it's interesting that China and Russia are bigger choirs of gold at the moment do you think that they've actually taken a forward position on this well I think they're looking ahead to a post dollar uh world and yes I think they know they're going to need uh more gold reserves and I think they're accumulating them now they're not going to come out and say that because that might push the price of gold up and if you're trying to buy as much gold as you can you don't want the price to go up until you're finished buying not while you're still in the process of buying it so I think the Chinese and the Russians will quietly accumulate as much gold as other nations are dumb enough to sell or other individuals or institutions who have it but central banks are going to be big big buyers of gold I think for many years to come and one question I have is that the price of gold is you know drifting around 1800 or a bit below um it's sort of gone up bit down a bit but it really hasn't reacted so far and I wonder whether this is to do with the relationship between the gold Futures which is what 50 times the underlying do you think the Futures Market is actually influencing the the spot price and is that one reason why gold is where it is at the moment well look I think gold is actually holding up quite well because remember the FED is tightening right now even though it's not raising rates it's tightening monetary policy just in its rhetoric and in what it is preparing the markets to expect when it comes to the timetable for the taper when the First Rate hike happens and so normally when the FED is doing this you would expect the price of gold to go down the fact that it's holding up shows you that there's not a lot of downside risk in gold and I think when gold really is going to start to move is either when the FED finally starts to raise rates and then you know gold can go up or if they never get around the raising raise If the Fed is forced to backtrack on its hawkish talk I mean so-called hawkish because there are no Hawks it's just degrees of dovishness but at some point you know the markets are going to change their view from we have inflation but it's going to go away because the FED is going to fight it until we have inflation and it's going to get worse because the fed's not going to fight it or even if the FED tries to fight it the FED will lose the fight and that's when gold just is going to go ballistic I think we're going to have a major move up in the price of gold uh to not only reflect all the inflation that we've had over the last year or two but all the inflation that we're about to have over the next several years as the government you know doubles and triples down on these failed policies look I think we're headed for a collapse in the bond market um whether it's a nominal collapse or just a real collapse I think it's ultimately irrelevant to the fact that you're going to get wiped out if you're following Harris advice and holding on to ious for US Dollars issued by the United States government I think that's one of the worst places that you could be the problem with Harry is he's still stuck in the 1930s and he thinks that we're going to have a 30-style deflation that's not going to happen we're not on a gold standard anymore the gold standard is what prevented the government from doing in the 1930s what it's about to do now and that is print even more money to keep stimulating the economy and keep running deficits so it's massive inflation it's maybe even hyperinflation that Harry should be concerned about not deflation the only way Harry is going to see deflation is going to be if he measures prices in Gold so I agree with Harry three stock prices are going to go down real estate prices are going to go down but they're only going to go down if you're measuring them in gold right so in terms of how much gold you need to buy the S P 500 you'll be able to buy a lot more of the s p with your gold in the future than you can buy today but as far as dollars who knows you might not be able to buy any stocks with your dollars if the dollar is worthless Gold's never going to be worthless stocks will be worth a lot less than they are now in terms of gold when when you're thinking about prices it's difficult to think about prices in terms of dollars because the dollar itself is going to be losing value so on a relative basis stocks can go down but the dollar can go down even more and so it looks like stocks are going up it's like you know trying to measure somebody's height uh but you don't know how many inches are going to be in a ruler so I can be six feet tall with a ruler but if the ruler has 10 inches in a foot you know obviously I'm not getting taller just because the ruler is getting smaller uh so people are going to be confused by the illusion that they're getting richer even as they're actually getting poorer if they just look at a price a dollar price on their assets so I always want to look at assets in terms of gold and and during the bubble assets have gone up in value relative to Gold but they're going to come collapsing down during the deflation but poor Harry Dent you know he's going to get wiped out even more by the deflation because the price of dollars relative to Gold will probably go down a lot more than the price of the stocks that he's not buying now lust a couple of questions um inflation you know if it's there is really a it's a tax it's a hidden tax isn't it well of course because the source of inflation is government that's why it's good to call it a tax because it's the government that is imposing the inflation of the people and it's doing it to funded spending so most people when they think of taxes it's hey the government takes my money they they Levy a tax on me and money goes from me to the government and the government takes that money and they give it to somebody else to spend and so I have less money to spend and now somebody else is spending my money well the government has another way of getting your money and that's through your purchasing power so instead of taking your money away from you the government just prints up some money and then gives that money to somebody else and now that's somebody else has money to spend that they didn't earn and now they go out and spend it but because they didn't earn it they didn't help produce goods and services so what happens is the people that get that new money they go and buy stuff prices go up and now because prices go up you can't buy as much stuff as you could have before because you don't have more money but everything costs more so let's say prices go up by 10 percent well that's like a tax that that would be exactly the same if the government took 10 percent of your money so that now you had to reduce your consumption and you bought you know 10 percent less stuff when they take your purchasing power through inflation you arrive at the same result you buy less stuff not because you have less money but because the prices have gone up but those higher prices are effectively a tax which is why I was very critical of uh Joe Biden's promise that Americans under 400 000 of income wouldn't have to pay anything for all the spending I said that was a lie they were going to pay the inflation tax because the inflation tax actually falls heaviest on the lower income and middle income people the very people that Biden claimed would be exempt from his taxes are the ones getting hit the hardest from his taxes yeah it's unconvenient of course inflation also devalues the absolute debt that governments have so in a way what they're doing is basically shrinking their problem but creating a bishop problem for everybody else yes they're they're they're screwing all of their uh creditors the holders of U.S treasuries but it's not just U.S treasury holders when they create inflation they destroy the value of dollar bonds all kinds corporate bonds Muni bonds all bonds lose value not just those issued by the US government but individual investors right watching what's going on at the moment and trying to figure out what to do what's your perspective in terms of how investors should think about this well they should understand that inflation wipes out creditors and it wipes out paper wealth but real wealth is not affected if you own real things tangible property you know equities in businesses uh real estate um that that those assets will retain value because prices can go up when there's inflation if you're a business and you're selling products you raise the prices of those products but if you own a bond and you're clipping a coupon your coupon is stuck uh and your principal is fixed in a certain quantity of money and if inflation renders that quantity worthless well what you've got is worthless but governments can print money but they don't print stuff so I want to own what the governments can't print real businesses productive assets Capital plant equipment real resources uh uh minerals uh you know energy resources agriculture there's a lot of things that you can own in business that you can own but I also want to own gold because gold is going to be remonetized in the aftermath of this currency crisis and you know the only way back to Prosperity the that road goes through a gold standard we're not going to get it uh relying on Fiat currencies uh yeah when lesser Fiat currencies fail when you had like an Argentine peso collapse okay you know you know that's one thing but the US dollar the the primary Reserve currency if the dollar can fail well then anything can fail I mean how are you supposed to have confidence in the Euro when you see the dollar collapse I mean who who's to say the Euro won't be next or the Japanese Yen so how is Europe and Japan going to say hey don't worry what happened to the U.S dollar is not going to happen to us well how why why would you think that so you got to do something to change the Dynamics and okay well no we're back by gold now we have gold reserves uh and we're going to stop printing money and that's how you can have confidence that what happened in America won't happen here
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