저자: RayDalio인용/Mr.Perfect채널진행자 · 외국인
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영상 결론: 기술주 특히 신흥 기술주에 극단적 거품이 형성돼 있으며, 저금리·무제한 양적완화가 끝나면 대폭락이 올 수 있다는 경고. 거품 진단: Ray Dalio가 신흥 기술주 밸류에이션이 극단적이라고 경고했다는 인용. 일부 기술주의 주가수익비율(PER)이 100배를 넘었는데 이는 닷컴 버블 이후 처음이라고 언급. S&P500 기술 하드웨어·스토리지 지수가 버블 상태로 보인다고 주장. 통화·정책 리스크: 연준의 월 800억 달러 규모 양적완화와 저금리가 자산가격을 밀어올렸으며, 금리가 오르면 부동산·주택건설 및 은행 대차대조표가 타격을 받을 수 있다고 주장. 10년물 국채금리는 약 1.24% 수준으로 언급. 인플레이션 전망: 물가지수(CPI)가 조작됐다는 주장과 함께 인플레이션이 이미 시작됐고 금리 상승 → 물가 상승의 악순환이 멈추기 어렵다고 주장. 이로 인해 정부 이자부담이 늘어나 대규모 구제금융 여력이 줄어든다고 봄. 투기 과열 신호: SPAC·IPO 남발, 쓰레기 부채 매각, 젊은 개인투자자의 게임처럼 한 주식거래 등을 버블의 징후로 지목. 게임스톱(GME) 사태: 헤지펀드가 GME에서 큰 손실을 보고 레버리지 포지션을 줄이면서 아마존·페이스북·마이크로소프트·애플 등 대형 롱 포지션을 매도, 손실이 수백억 달러 규모일 수 있다고 주장. 과거 사례: 2018년 12월 금리인상기 약 20% 하락, 2020년 2월~3월 팬데믹 급락 약 34% 하락 후 빠르게 회복된 사례를 언급. 투자 대응: 패닉 매도 대신 현금을 확보해 두었다가 20~50% 할인된 우량주를 매수하라고 조언. 금·귀금속은 가치를 유지하고 비트코인은 소멸 가능성이 있다고 평가. 은은 태양광 수요로 상승 가능성 언급. 주요 리스크: 과도한 유동성, 밸류에이션 괴리, 금리 급등 가능성, 인플레이션 재가속.
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please remember to subscribe it's just one click for you but it helps me a lot creating new videos thank you please share this video largest hedge fund manager Ray Delio is warning that emerging tech stocks are in extreme bubble I've seen a lot of bubbles in my time and I have studied even more in history so I know what I mean by a bubble there is a very big Divergence in the readings across stocks some stocks are by these measures in extreme bubbles particularly emerging technology companies while some stocks are not in bubbles this Market action is reminiscent of the nifty50 in the early 1970s and the dotom bubble stocks in the late 1990s both of which I remember well it scores similarly to the bubble stocks of the late 1920s which I can't remember because I wasn't alive then diio is right the tech valuations are getting scary it might be time we start worrying about tech stock value ations it is likely that the S&P 500 technology Hardware storage and peripherals index is in a bubble at risk of bursting unprecedented QE unprecedented spending mother of all bubbles mother of all crashes the markets keep chasing the free money everyone keeps promising endless SPAC and IPOs taking advantage of rampant speculation garbage debt sold by undeserving CEOs to an unsuspecting Clueless Public's hungry for returns all are obvious symptoms of speculation created by a fed that's guaranteed Limitless nearly free money as far as the eye can see and more government trillions coming to Heap upon young bored trading newbies thinking they're playing video games but are learning or will learn the hard way stocks don't only go up excess optimism with little or no consideration of risk this can't help but come to an ugly end and hurt most of those who don't understand and aren't playing a good deal of Defense money is being shoveled into tech stocks some of the tech stocks have reached a historical price earnings ratio per of over 100 times something that has not happened since the dot boom this is where the real stock market bubble is if a sector runs up more than the entire Market most of the time it will crash it's all about ultra low interest rates when that changes so will the markets free money until it's not but once the free money is gone it'll all come tumbling down the whole enchilada want to see what happens without the 80 billion dollar a month in QE and make the federal government spend with a balanced budget way too much money if interest rates double there will be a giant smoking hole in the middle of the American landscape at the bottom of that hole will be the smoldering remains of the real estate homeb building industry the banks might not be in such good shape either a 30-year mortgage sitting on your books at 1.75% might leave a hole in the old balance sheet that is coming inflation has already gone up in America in my estimation but the CPI was changed and manipulated to conceal it so the Federal Reserve Bank can keep it reported as low by keeping interest rates low which is ludicrous because real inflation must be considered a part of what makes a genuine Market interest rate when the interest rates go up soon because inflation will increase due to the money creation of the Federal Reserve with its $2 trillion bailout of the banksters in 2019 to 2020 and probably 2021 at least by its buying their Inc collectible mortgage-backed Securities for inflated above FMV values inflation will react and increase in a vicious circle in other words perceived inflation raises interest rates and some prices and higher interest rates and prices place a fear on producers that they are selling their goods currently at less than the cost of their next set of goods produced plus a reasonable profit so as a result of that fear Goods producers Etc will increase their prices that will then lead others to increase their prices because the producers of goods increased their prices Etc in a vicious cycle that is how inflation starts and it is Unstoppable after it starts because for years the Federal Reserve has worried only about funneling funds to its darling banksters and no longer can keep interest rates low now now that inflation has returned the US government has also been gutted by the Federal Reserve because inflation will increase the interest rates that it will have to pay to roll over its debts I.E treasury Securities outstanding so as those are rolled over at higher and higher interest rates it will have less available after those interest payments for other things it will not be able to give gigantic bailouts like in 2018 to 2011 buckle up people because the exciting part of this roller coaster is coming as the ancient Chinese curse reportedly said the most interesting times are coming welcome back to the Atlantis report you are here for your daily dose of the truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth please take a second to hit the like button hit the Subscribe button and don't forget to also hit the notification Bell when this one pops there won't be a lot of hiding places there's too much money out there yields will keep dropping until the FED allows a correction in Bank to blow up it doesn't take a PhD to tell you if more money is chasing less Investments the price goes up but it does take a PhD and economics to try to convince people that up is down and Common Sense doesn't hold true take out a loan from Chase and buy Tesla or Bitcoin what could go wrong Bitcoin ethereum and Litecoin are all in a massive bubble Common Sense was enough to see that it's not just one bubble profitless unicorn software companies trading at 50 to 100 times sales are Dream Machines for another example the higher they rise the more likely they fall when an asset doubles triples or quadruples that it's vulnerable to a draw down the retirees have limited choice to find a decent return of their savings to live comfortably in retirement on top of it the much younger generation thinks the market as where to make the difference to being rich or being poor if there is a bubble what will make it burn right now it seems like the dollar is under pressure from the outside and the 10-year treasury is up to 1.24% this is a real problem for the FED we are so heavily indebted that even a gesture of raising the rate by the FED could trigger a huge downfall of the market and will worsen an anemic pandemic driven economy that is striving on stimulus money barring the collapse of the stock market we are going to have inflation hopefully mild Commodities should do well when over 50% of the population is on government retirement pay plus benefits and another third are getting government handouts that doesn't leave much left all are promised the world and nobody wants to give an inch that is destruction at the very core of the Endless money supply time for the new math the markets are pricier than ever and charts are the most vertically extended than ever the Russell 2000 is no longer sustainable the market valuations have again reached never before seen levels of asset price disconnect from the underlying size of the economy 192.5 all of this is ignored by participants and seemingly justified by low rates and ongoing interventions the risk-free rate they call it the tech stock growth bubble about to pop investors should be worried about the Fallout from gme that is playing out in the market in the FG stocks the HFS are losing boatloads of money on gme and their Prime broker is making them put up more capital or reduce their heavily levered positions this means they are selling their highflying Longs like Amazon Facebook Microsoft and Apple that all these HFS own in a highly levered fashion that is why these names sold off yesterday this could become a Feeding Frenzy where healthy hedge funds or Robin hoods start buying puts on these names it's easy to extrapolate that HF losses could easily be in the tens of billions the higher gme goes and the longer it stays there the more the pressure on F AMG the market already has had two recent bubble Pops in December 2018 when the FED kept pushing rates to fight the inflation Boogeyman that that didn't exist and caused the stock market indexes to pop minus 20% from late October to December 24th 2018 the last bubble pop was the 2020 pandemic investors have already forgotten that the market had just gone through a a minus 34% bubble pop of the index that occurred in late February 2020 and ended in late March 2020 the experts were right about the fact that markets recover within a year's time in pandemic Corrections in this case the NSD hit a new all-time high in July 2020 the S&P 500 in September 2020 and the Dow hit all-time high in December 2020 what can investors learn when the bubble does eventually burst again don't p panic and sell sit tight let the storm pass wait for the Federal Reserve Bank and the government to take action to prevent a full collapse of the financial system and be ready to buy great stocks that you always wanted to own but were expensive during the bull run that has dropped in price selling at a big discount due to panic selling this is the reason why you want to always have some cash in your account to buy when the bubble does pop and the markets go on sale 20% to 50% like what investors saw in 202 9 2018 and 2020 right now too much money going in too many dollars on the sidelines and demographics of Millennials Generation Z and soon to be AI Generation all chasing a very limited supply of stocks follow the data points the counter to this is that the proliferation of Chip demand in this disruptive phase can potentially elongate the typical cycle for semiconductors just look at chip shortages data generation electrification of of cars you name it bubbles would also warrant valuations that are too ridiculous for an investor to justify across the space the real telling is if there truly is something behind the run up or just hot air Apple stock has run up going back 15 years simply because its earnings have also grown for some others without matching earnings or some new technological breakthrough those stocks would definitely be vulnerable to a fall that's how these things go everyone gets burned investing usually when young so this is the new batch of youths that has to go through their ceremonial baptism of fire then once they've learned it's not all roses and strawberries those who decide to come back the second time around will be smarter for it my prediction is that the next correction will bring many stocks to 50% or even 40% of their current values even stocks that are supposed to counter the overall crash the smart money expecting this crash has has been piling up for the last 2 years and the amounts of cash waiting for the opportunity to buy some big companies at rock bottom prices are enormous when it all starts going south don't panic and buy the first dip wait for the currently unimaginable bottom and then buy rationality has left the building however there is no exit door for most people gold and PM will retain more value Bitcoin can evaporate through various mechanisms other than a few 50b SS bags of rice canned goods household medicines and of course ammo where does One play safe silver has utility and with Biden pledging to pour mountains into green energy silver demand could rise from solar panel production alone
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