저자: 제이미다이먼 · 외국인
요약 보기
JP모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼은 2022년 6월 1일 뉴욕 금융 컨퍼런스에서 경기 침체를 '경제적 허리케인'에 비유하며 대비를 강조했다. 핵심 주장: 현재는 날씨가 맑지만 허리케인이 다가오고 있으며, 그 규모가 작을지 샌디급 슈퍼스톰일지 모른다는 경고다. 위험 요인 1 - 양적긴축(QT): 6월 시작, 월 최대 950억 달러 채권 보유 축소 예정이며 이에 따른 시장 충격을 우려했다. 위험 요인 2 - 우크라이나 전쟁: 원자재(식량·연료) 가격 상승이 우려 요인이며, 유가가 배럴당 150~175달러까지 갈 수 있다고 언급했다. 시장 신호: 연초 이후 나스닥100은 약 23% 하락, 다우와 S&P500도 각각 9%, 13% 가량 하락했다. 고점권 인플레이션과 공급망 차질이 겹쳐 있다. 연준 상황: 파월 의장은 인플레이션 억제 과정에서 경기 연착륙을 장담할 수 없다고 밝혔다. 연착륙은 올해 목표이나 노동시장 긴축과 임금 상승으로 어려울 수 있다. 금리 전망: 메스터 클리블랜드 연은 총재는 인플레이션 정점이 확인되지 않았다며 공격적 금리 인상을 지지했다. 6·7월 회의에서 50bp 인상이 유력하다. 다이먼의 대응: JP모건은 보수적으로 대차대조표를 운용하며, 저품질 비운용 예금을 MMF 등으로 옮기도록 고객에게 권유하고 있다. 이는 대손 증가에 대비한 자본 관리 목적이다. 리스크: 금리 인상과 QT 속도가 시장 변동성을 키울 수 있으며, 침체 가능성이 주요 리스크다. 출연자 전망: 다이먼은 허리케인 규모는 불확실하나 대비가 필요하다고 본다. 명시적 가격 목표치는 없다.
다듬은 글
Jamie Dimon sees an economic hurricane coming. Are you prepared? You'd better brace yourself.
Dimon told a room full of analysts and investors: "JP Morgan is bracing ourselves, and we're going to be very conservative with our balance sheet. It's a hurricane. It's right now, it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road, coming our way. We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy, or Andrew, or something like that. You'd better brace yourself."
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Jamie Dimon is an American billionaire businessman and banker who has been chairman and chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase, the largest of the big four American banks, since 2005. He was previously on the board of directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Time magazine included him in its lists of the world's 100 most influential people in 2006, 2008, 2009, and 2011. His net worth is estimated at 1.8 billion dollars.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says he is preparing the biggest U.S. bank for an economic hurricane on the horizon, and advised investors to do the same. "I said there's storm clouds, but I'm going to change it. It's a hurricane," Dimon said on Wednesday, June 1st, 2022, at a financial conference in New York. While conditions seem fine at the moment, nobody knows if the hurricane is a minor one or Superstorm Sandy, he added.
Two main factors worry Dimon. First, the so-called quantitative tightening, or QT, scheduled to begin this month, which will ramp up to 95 billion dollars a month in reduced bond holdings. Second, the Ukraine war and its impact on commodities, including food and fuel. Oil could hit 150 or 175 dollars a barrel, he said.
Beginning late last year, high-flying tech names have been hammered as investors prepare for the end of the Federal Reserve's cheap money era. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq 100 has fallen a whopping 23 percent, while the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 have fallen more than 9 and 13 percent, respectively. Inflation is at multi-decade highs, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions from the coronavirus pandemic, which has sown fear that the Fed will inadvertently tip the economy into recession as it combats price increases.
The Federal Reserve is between a rock and a hard place. After two years of yo-yo economic conditions, the Fed is trying to cool off inflation without tipping the nation into recession. The buzzword for that is a "soft landing," and that's the goal for the rest of 2022.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that getting inflation under control could cause some economic pain, but said it remains his top priority. He couldn't promise a so-called soft landing as the Fed raises interest rates to tamp down price increases running near their fastest pace in more than 40 years. He noted that with a tight labor market pushing up wages, avoiding a recession that often follows aggressive policy tightening will be a challenge. All of this is happening with an already slowing economy.
Jamie Dimon sees huge volatility. The market is still getting used to QT and rising interest rates, and every interest rate increase has seen the market react.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on June 3rd, 2022 that she doesn't see ample evidence that inflation has peaked, and so she is on board with supporting a series of aggressive interest rate increases. "I think the Fed has shown that we're in the process of recalibrating our policy to get inflation back down to our 2 percent goal. That's the job before us," Mester said in a live interview on CNBC's *The Exchange*. Recent statements from the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee indicate that 50 basis point, or half-point, rate increases are likely at the June and July meetings. Officials are then likely to evaluate the progress that policy tightening and other factors have made on the inflation picture. A basis point equals 0.01 percent.
JPMorgan is bracing itself, and it is going to be very conservative with its balance sheet. The bank has started to push its clients to move lower-quality deposits, called non-operating deposits, into other places such as money market funds. That would help the bank manage its capital requirements under international rules, potentially helping it absorb a surge in bad loans.
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