We desperately need reforms at the Federal Reserve, says Mohamed El-Erian

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AI 트레이드는 펀더멘털 중심으로 차별화 중이며 데이터센터 수요는 가득 찼다는 평가. 수익성은 AI 도입(adoption)에 달렸다고 봄. 연준은 구조개혁이 필요하고 12월 금리인하 확률이 한 달 새 90%→30%로 급변한 것은 비정상적이라고 지적.

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01. Joining us right now is Muhammad Alerian from . He's also chief economic adviser at Alons. And Muhammad, welcome. There have been uh some interesting trends in the market lately. What have you made of all these AI trends that looked so concerning two weeks ago and then looked pretty good last week. I actually have been encouraged because I think that AI trade has become more differentiated.

02. People have understood that vertical integration matters. They have understood that multiple sources of revenues matter. So we starting to see AI being much more fundamentally driven than hype driven. Explain that. I don't I don't get that because it seems like every time there's a deal uh both companies tend to go up whatever two deals whatever two companies are there.

03. How are we differentiating between what works and what doesn't? So let's start with Gemini. I think Gemini 3 was a significant change in the landscape. I think it made people realize that if you are going to be a winner in this arms race because it is an arms race. You have to have certain attributes that not all the companies have.

04. So you started seeing Google outperform other companies. Now you're starting to see much more um consideration of how you funding yourself. Are you funding yourself mainly from revenue or are you funding yourself from circular financing? That's all good because you didn't want the bubble phase to get carried away too much because otherwise there would have been a lot more damage than there would be otherwise.

05. Um the idea of data centers being pretty fully booked at this point. I had heard one person describing this as saying we're we're not in the same situation we were back with Lucent or Cisco or some of those companies back in the early days of the last big tech bubble. Um because these data centers are still fully booked.

06. So you're not building out empty um demand at this point. Correct. And there's there's a perception that maybe even a waiting list if you like for use of these data centers. I think it's so good we having them now because if we didn't have that on the demand side, if we didn't have AI related activities drive GDP, we'd be talking about store speed because the rest of the economy is having a harder time.

07. So we have this because those resources have been all devoted to AI and and they would be resources that could be deployed somewhere else if it weren't for that. No, I think it's because AI has be has proven to be such a powerful driver. And on the other side, we're dealing with legacy. We've talked a lot about affordability.

08. The consumer somehow keeps on going, but there's concern there's concern about the labor market decoupling from GDP. So there's concern about the labor market on there. But if it weren't for AI related, we would be talking about store speed. So it's a really good thing. And remember, this is just a demand transition to the productivity impact of AI.

09. You think about some of the stocks though that have been front and center for this. Those companies like a Microsoft um so many of these companies that for a very long time, Oracle and others that were able to bring in a lot of profitability because they did not have a lot of capex that they were spending.

10. You know, these were very assetike companies. That's not the case with this. Do you think the profitability will follow the money that's being spent here? I do, but a lot will depend on adoption. So, what do we always talk about? We're fascinated by those who are working on AI, the builders, the exciting new foundational models, but we don't talk enough, Becky, about those working with AI.

11. And that's going to be critical because adoption is going to be important. If you step back, we do need an adoption policy. We don't have that right now. And that's why we risk falling behind China. Accenture, I think, is number three on the S&P 500 list of gainers this morning. It's up pretty sharply after announcing a deal with OpenAI that it's going to be using its chat GPT um with its clients with kind of putting that out there so they can get using them and and seeing that as an enterprise book.

12. Yeah, it's up by about 2.8% right now. Um, that's all fine and well, but when does the disintermediation show up in terms of, as Joe pointed out, do you need a consultant to put you in touch with JT GPT or are these just going to be tools that make them more efficient at their work? You will need I mean I mean Accenture is a perfect example of a company that has understood.

13. So it talks about we reinventors. It's reinventing itself. It talks about it having to upscale its its own labor force so that it could help others. And I think Julie Sweet, the CEO, is leading in a very visionary manner. If you talk to others, you'll find a wide dispersion. There are those who are ready to adopt.

14. There are those who say, "Our databases don't speak to each other. We can't even go anywhere near that." So, you're going to need help with a lot of the distribution when it comes to adoption. And I think Accentra has taken the lead on this because it has understood that the first step is to reinvent yourself.

15. And that's exactly what they've done. So, what are you watching outside of this AI trade? Obviously, that's leading the market. um has been for a while, but there's a lot of other things that are happening. Federal Reserve and beyond. Yeah. I think what you heard Loretta say this morning on your show is really important is that we need to pay more attention to the supply side.

16. We are captivated right now understandably by two things. Will they cut this month or not? And who will be the next Fed share as important is how will this Fed be reformed? This Fed went to sleep. And I think that what you heard Loretta say, and this is important because it comes from someone who's been inside the Fed.

17. Yes, we made mistakes. Yes, we have to talk about our forecasting. We have to think about scenario analyses, not point estimates. We have got to be better at the supply side and most importantly, the compliance culture has to improve. So, there's a lot of things that we have to focus on on the Fed because it's so central to our economic well-being.

18. And that will play out over what the next year or you think this is a much longer term. So, I think what what the secretary said on your show last week was perfect is we don't need a play-by-play Fed. We need the Fed to cool it. We need the Fed to step back and take a bigger sort of visionary view and we need reforms.

19. We desperately need reforms and I think all five on the short list are committed to reforming that institution which is critical not just for the US but for the global economy. Is there a point where the market gets uncomfortable with reform or the market you think is clamoring for it at this point?

20. I think the market right now is focused honestly on will they cut in December and who's going to be the Fed share. There will come a time when the Fed when they'll go from tactical to strategic and these things will matter. Um it is almost absurd that in the last month the probability of a December cut has gone from 90% to 30%.

21. Send it back up to 86 or 87. 90. Is it 90 this morning? Yeah. It's crazy. I mean this should not happen. The whole point of forward guidance is predictability and stability. So there is something wrong that has to be addressed. The rest of the world looks at this and say, "Wait a minute. The Fed is at the core of the system and there's so much volatility in what they expect they're going to do in a few weeks. What's going on here?