저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
Figma IPO 첫날 급등(공모가 33달러→종가 115달러대)이 시장 전체 투기 과열 신호라고 경고. 마이크로소프트·메타 실적은 어닝 대비 크게 상회해 밸류에이션이 합리적이라 평가. Figma는 주가매출비율(P/S) 기준 고평가로 'Figma 법칙: 올라간 것은 내려온다'를 언급. 아마존 실적은 양호하나 가이던스 혼조, 애플은 아이폰 호조로 긍정적. 시장 과열 국면이 오래 지속되지는 않을 수 있다는 경계론.
다듬은 글
[, my friends. Hey, look. I'm just trying to savxplain, teach, put in context. Call me 1 800743 CBC. Tweet me at Jim Kramer. Valuation matters. Sure, you can pay whatever you want for a stock. You, it's personal you. You don't have to tell anybody, but the price you pay does ultimately matter to your bank account.
Especially if you're one of the people who got in on the initial public offering of Figma, the digital design company, which priced its IPO at $33 today, then saw it open for trading at $85 and finished the day at $115 and change. Did you take some off? Did you ring the register or did you just let it ride?
Somehow Figma captured the zeitgeist of the entire joint. No, the entire market even as the averages got hit today, Dow sliding 330 points, S&P declining.37%, NASDAQ edging 003%. And do you know why that happened? Was it the Fed? Was it the president? Was it earnings? No, it happened because of Figma.
This market went down because of Figma. Why? Because valuation matters. What matters to this market is to be reasonable. And we weren't today. Today was dominated by euphoria. And guess what? Euphoria is bad for business. What should have been about? Well, how about Microsoft? How about Meta? Nope. They were overshadowed by the Figman carnival.
It was all anyone talked about down here. Call me oldfashioned, but I really wanted the market today to be defined by those earnings reports from two tech titans. I'm talking about Microsoft briefly a$4 trillion dollar company today for closing just below that level and meta at just under $2 trillion.
I wanted these to be foundational which is the word that every CEO now uses about anything important which I have no idea what it means but it sure sounds great. I wanted it because they smashed estimates. I mean they crushed them by billions of dollars. These were marvels. They did so because they spent fortunes on artificial intelligence.
Something which many thought to be foolhardy but it turns out to be they didn't spend enough. Microsoft shocked people by obliterating the earnings estimates now sells at roughly 35 times earnings. Meta, which blew the estimates away. Kingdom Come sells for less than 29 times earnings. Given how spectacular these reports were, it was natural, totally natural for the stocks to go up.
Microsoft gained nearly 4%. Meta jumping uh more than 11%. Lots of people today, I heard them, I heard them, but they were grousing that these stocks have become too big. Oh, that's not the problem. They were bemoning that they're now bigger than some national economies. I say they're still too cheap and most national economies are inflation binging joke anyway.
I'll take their balance sheets over any country in the whole world. We pay 35 times earnings for Microsoft, 29 times earnings for Meta because we look at the benchmark, the valuation, the S&P 500 and the aggregate that sells at 24 times earnings. Then we try to assess how much better Microsoft and Meta are than the average stock and they are really better.
by you see we have something to we got to pay something for them. We have to do it right. We can't just say, "Oh, heck, I'm not going to buy those or let's not value them. They're companies with stocks and we have a tried and true way to value the one that I told you about. The one that involves their earnings and the price we pay.
We use relationships to figure out what we should pay." Of course, those relationships can always lead us astray. S&P could quickly fall. Microsoft met maybe it's a spike. But the fact is their earnings were amazing, which is why their stocks were unstoppable today. Why am I going through this? First, it's because I'm truly astonished by the numbers these two companies put up.
They really they belong in that magnificent seven. They're like you Brener and Stea Queen. But second, and far more palpable, we care about those valuations because even though Meta and Microsoft are two of the largest companies in the world, today's market was defined by the action in a smalish design software company that came public and immediately traded north of 60 times sales.
Not earnings. Sales. Earnings good. Sales bad. Sales 1999. Earnings 2025. Now, I'm not disparaging Figma here. This is not some profitless company. It makes money. It grows fast. It's for I like the product. Used by everybody. Used by me, used by my family. Bargain. But there's a problem here. Problem with Figma stock.
The price made no sense whatsoever. It's wildly inflated because it doesn't make that much money. In fact, it makes so little that I can't even use a price to earnings multiple. I that I use for Microsoft Meta valuation is irrelevant when we talk about Figma irrelevant how do we value it then there's really only one way you have to judge it on a price to sales basis and what you look at on that basis using a fully diluted valuation is some at the go out 67 times our rough sales 67 and that assumes 40% growth meta sells at 10 times sales Microsoft 12 times sales it just doesn't compute what happened here today on a day when these two giant companies reported phenomenal numbers with much more of their newfound growth coming from profitable artificial intelligence investments.
We had no choice but to focus on Figma because they couldn't get the darn thing open until 1:59 p.m. Figma is all that mattered. A deal price at 33, opened at 85 and then went to absurd levels. The Figma deal mattered more than the two giants because it's the worst possible sign of froth. I hate it.
They know nothing. You know what I want to do? I want to call it Fig Newton's law. That's right. What goes up must come down. Okay? And not tomorrow. Maybe not Monday, but this is Fake Newton's law. You got me? It's just that this this may mark a whole new phase of the bull market, the phase of ludicrous valuations that the the the year of marvelous thinking will be gone.
You have to hope that FIG was a oneanddone battle of enthusiasm. It just can't be the norm. Did you hear me? And as someone who brought a company public during the heyday of 1999, I know what I'm talking about. We are don't we don't want to go back to the bubble territory. What do we want to focus on the hits and misses?
Microsoft and Meta were terrific for a while. They ignited everything data center. But as we waited for FEMA to open who saw their net worth catapulted to the sky, you know, to the stratosphere, everybody else lost money because the adults know that they have lost control of the narrative if there are more figs.
And I don't want it. I don't want it to happen. I just don't want it to happen. The profit taking was tremendous as everybody watched the Figma carnival. Yeah, you know like Qualcomm that was down like 8% of Jez, excuse me. Figma Figma can kill the bull and I don't want to kill. After the close, we drifted from lunacy back to reality.
Amazon reported what I thought was a good quarter and help Bob be don't don't talk with your mouthful, Jimmy. Much better than expected sales at every division, even if their web services margin was light. Oh, give me a break. All unfortunately, Amazon gave mixed guidance, but they always do that. That's what they do.
That's my largest position in the travel trust. I'm not worried about it at all. I am worried about what do you think? I'm worried about Figma's law and uh Amazon stock got hit, but I you know, please I mean it's getting crushed in after hours. It's just going to be another buy. Now, we also heard from Apple whose sales and earnings came in substantially better thanks to surprisingly strong iPhone sales.
Even their Chinese business improved. People always want to write off Apple's a no growth company. Best days behind them, but they just put up 10% revenue growth. A reminder that this remains one of the greatest companies on earth. You know what I say? Own it, don't trade it. At the end of the day, I hope we can go back to focusing on earnings rather than getting more IPOs like Figma.
We got to put this genie back in a bottle. If this is merely a day where one day of higher valuations, I can handle it. The genie, but the genie will wreck us if it stays out. Maybe the best thing is to try to get at least one wish from the genie. Don't let the inmates take over the asylum. The bottom line, if we can stick the price journey, multiples, not price of sales, that means the bull would still be intact and we can live to make more money another day.
Everyone acts like Microsoft Met have reached insane valuations that are way too high, but their stocks are priced very reasonably. If anything, they deserve to be a lot higher. at the figures of the world that have gone two crazy levels and are probably set to go higher still before they repeat the lesson.
If they win, then let me just say we are all on borrow time. Carl in Illinois. Carl. Yeah, Jim. Hey, the stock I'm calling about seems to have no momentum and I'd like to be around when it catches wind. I want I want I wanted to get your opinion on Wendy's. Wendy's is Wendy's about to report and it's not going to be pretty.
Uh they got steak problem, you know, meat is meat. They got competition. They got so much wrong. The only thing they got right is that darn baconater because I know my wife eats them in her sleep. Let's go to Sharon and me. Sharon. Hey Jim, just the club member here. Really happy with you. Thank you so much for all you do and and the whole group.
You're kind. You're kind. Let's not let's let's keep And what we want to do, remember, we want to get the froth out of the building. That's what I'm trying to do. bring the rats in and get the product out. So, how can I help you? So, Spotify, with the economy seem to be faltering, what do you think?
Buy or Sharon? I I was so mystified by by Spotify. That was a really not great number. I don't get it. I don't know what happened. I can't I can't own the stock until I figure out what the heck happened. All right. Look, if we're going to sink to the idea of price to sales, which is what moved on Figma, I got to tell you something.
This is going to be this. And I don't want it to happen. Microsoft and Met are priced reasonably. It's the Figas that have gotten out of control. Hey, by the way, look at Carbana. That was pretty good today, was it? I mean, that's a high stock, but it's making a lot of money. And you know, after the close, everyone's bemoning Amazon.
Oh, go ahead. After you order everything tonight on Amazon, you can bum all you want. And you can do it through your Apple phone. Picture my wife. Okay. Anyway, the Federal Housing Administr finance, Bill Py, is accusing the credit score company FICO, of being a monopoly. I'm going straight to the source and FICO to hear what they have to say.
Gold's been glimmering lately. Investors missed the boat. I don't think so. American Eagle is still there to be had. I'm sorry. A Niko Eagle. What I can tell you, this is what happens to me when I get when when the Figma carnival should be over. Oh, and don't miss my exclusive with the gold company either.
All right. What can I say? I'm going to put all these in my mouth. I'm Yeah. You think I'm into fitness? I'm into fitness in my mouth. .
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