Howard Marks - Como DOMINAR os Ciclos de MERCADO para INVESTIR?

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결론: 내일·향후 1~3년 시장 방향은 아무도 모르며, 예측 대신 현재 시장이 적정가치 대비 어디에 있는지 파악하는 것이 중요하다. 예측에 대한 입장: 저자는 예측을 신뢰하지 않으며 갤브레이스의 말(모르는 예측가, 모르는 줄도 모르는 예측가)에 따라 자신은 '모르는 쪽'이라고 밝힌다. 현재 위치 판단의 가치: 적정가치 추세선 대비 현재 위치를 알면 기대수익을 추정할 수 있다. 고점 부근이면 기대수익이 역사적 평균보다 낮고 돈 벌기 어려우며, 저점 부근이면 기대수익이 높다. 방향(미래)은 몰라도 현재 위치는 알 수 있다고 주장한다. 과대평가와 하락의 차이: 과대평가된 시장이 내일 하락한다는 뜻은 아니다. 과열 상태는 더 과열되다가 정점을 찍고 하락할 수 있으며, 조기 매도 시 손해를 보고 고객 이탈 등 비난을 받을 수 있다고 설명한다. 결정의 질과 결과: 좋은 결정이 나쁜 결과를 낳고 나쁜 결정이 좋은 결과를 낳을 수 있으므로 결과만으로 결정의 질을 판단할 수 없다. 우리가 할 수 있는 것은 옳은 일을 하는 것이지 내일 통할 일을 하는 것이 아니다. 시장의 본질: 시장은 감정을 가진 사람들의 집합이므로 항상 예측 가능하게 행동하지 않으며, 이 때문에 예측이 어렵다. 리스크: 구체적 종목·지수에 대한 가격 발언은 없음. 특정 자산 추천 없음. 출연자 전망: 시장 전체에 대해 단기 방향은 말하지 않으며, 현재 고평가 또는 저평가 위치에 대한 구체적 판단은 제시하지 않음.

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01. well first of all what everybody wants to know is what's going to happen tomorrow marco was down 800 yesterday 550 today what's going to happen tomorrow what's going to happen over the next year over the next three years and the answer is nobody knows and uh i don't believe in forecasts another one of my heroes uh john kenneth galbraith said we have two kinds of forecasters the ones who don't know and the ones who don't know they don't know and i am firmly in the first camp i don't know what's going to happen in the future and what i say is we never know where we're going but we sure as hell or to know where we are it may be challenging to predict the future it shouldn't be that hard to predict the present and if we can as if if we can think in terms of a normal trend line perhaps for the market or a a a level which represents fair value and then the fact that the market oscillates around it then clearly it's very important to know where in that oscillating pattern we are because if this is fair value and we're here then clearly the expected value the expected performance from here should be lower than the historic average the historic average was compiled by buying at prices all along the cycle but clearly if we're at the peak of a cycle our prospective return is lower than historically it has been on average and it's harder to make money than it historically has been and easier to lose money whereas if we're buying here when prices are depressed then the expected value is higher than the historic average and it's easier to make money and harder to lose so it makes a profound difference and i think it's extremely important that we figure it out we don't know where we're going but where we are has implications for where we're probably going eventually now the word eventually is very important because if i tell you we're over that that the market is high in its cycle and is overpriced one of the most important things for you to realize is that overpriced and going down tomorrow are not synonymous and so if you think about the market fluctuating this way around fair value then when it goes above the line it's overpriced when it goes higher it's more overpriced higher more overpriced and markets which are overpriced tend to become more overpriced before eventually they reach a top and turn down so it's it's a big mistake to think that overpriced and going down tomorrow are synonymous you can you can say that's overpriced you can sell it and it goes up another 20 you feel like an idiot and and you get fired by half your clients um but that doesn't mean that it was wrong and and uh it's i'm straying a little bit from your question but that's okay i'll bring you back okay but but you know all you can do in this world is do what's right you can't necessarily do what's going to work tomorrow i when i started at wharton 55 years ago this month and the first lesson i remember learning at wharton was that you can't tell the quality of a decision from the outcome now this is a counter-intuitive and in fact perplexing and most people who who are not analytical or insightful would say well of course you can good decisions work bad decisions fail but the truth of the matter is that in the world there are a lot of things that are unpredictable and random and as a result good decisions fail all the time and bad decisions succeed all the time and we all know people we say oh he he was right for the wrong reason or he was lucky or he was unlucky and and so you you can't you can't think of the world as a place where good decision good outcome bad decision bad argument doesn't work that way you know richard feynman the physicist said that physics would be much harder if electrons had feelings and the truth is that markets there is no such thing as a market there's no place it might be a building or it might be virtual what is a market it's a bunch of people who buy and sell and those people do have feelings and so they don't always act in a way which is predictable they don't always act in a way which is right sometimes they do things which are counterintuitive to predict the movement of the market then at the time when people do things which are unpredictable you have to be able to predict it which by definition you can't