Stagflation: It Is WORSE Than A RECESSION | Ray Dalio

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스태그플레이션은 고인플레이션과 고실업·정체된 수요가 동시에 나타나는 상태로, 일반 인플레이션과 다르며 매우 드물지만 파괴적이다. 스태그플레이션의 원인으로 원유 등 핵심 원자재 공급 부족, 그리고 1970년대 닉슨 정부의 가격·임금 통제 같은 시장 규제가 거론된다. 현재 러시아·우크라이나 분쟁과 잠재적 중국·대만 갈등이 공급 충격 요인으로 제시된다. 정부와 연준은 팬데믹 기간 대규모 통화 발행을 했고, 이후 세금·금리 인상과 채권 매입으로 유동성을 흡수하고 있다고 설명된다. Ray Dalio는 연준이 금리 조절을 지나치게 늦고 공격적으로 해왔다고 비판하며, 장기적으로 연준이 중간 경로를 택해 스태그플레이션이 나타날 가능성을 경고했다. 다만 실제 발생 여부는 시간이 지나야 알 수 있다고 한다. 투자 측면에서는 식량·농지, 석유 기업, 필수재 기업이 방어 수단으로 제시되며, 테슬라·애플 같은 고가 성장주는 줄이라고 언급된다. 국가별로는 인도·일본·필리핀 같은 우호적 수출국, 브라질·캐나다·미국 식량 수출국 분산이 제안된다. 자산 분산과 리츠·인덱스 펀드 활용이 결론으로 강조된다. 특정 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았고, 대부분 장기적·일반적 전략 수준의 언급이다.

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01. Ray dalio's warning we're at risk of stagflation have you ever heard about the term stagflation you might be thinking of it as an alternate word for inflation right hello and welcome to Tom's do-it-yourself investing a channel where we discuss personal finance tips investing guides real estate and the stock market in this video we will be discussing what is stagflation and why Ray dalio believes we're at risk of it want to know about Ray dalio's warning regarding stagflation then watch this video Until the End so without further Ado let's Dive Right In stagflation is persistent High inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country's economy whereas inflation is quite different so what is inflation is it the same as stanflation no inflation is the rate at which the value of a currency is falling and consequently the general level of prices for goods and services is rising usually mild inflation is a good thing it's a sign of a healthy and growing economy and growth is good developed countries like the U.S Target two percent annual inflation and Japan targets less than one percent inflation annually which is just enough to keep it interesting people with jobs spend money corporations take this money and make profits profitable companies hire more people and the circle of the economy keeps on going like this every year there is a growth in profits you can thank inflation for some of this to sum up inflation people are getting slightly richer every year and stuff is getting equally expensive sounds interesting doesn't it sometimes when times are bad the opposite happens stuff is getting cheaper and people are getting poorer every year this phenomenon is called deflation or depression it was all about inflation but what about stagflation it dramatically Alters the situation it is neither inflation nor deflation but rather the worst of both things are still getting more expensive but people are getting poorer economic stagflation is rare but devastating how would a period of stagflation impact businesses and the job market stagflation occurs when prices rise currency loses value and there is no real job creation in the economy the typical tools of economic management have no effect on stagnation once it has set in when costs increase employees often seek higher wages resulting in labor disruptions during stagflation speculation can arise from a variety of causes it is claimed that a combination of oil scarcity and the fed's bad Economic Policy would result in the next stagflation the first factor is a sudden lack of a critical commodity such as oil or food does this sound familiar both of these Commodities are experiencing severe Supply constraints as a result of the Russia Ukraine conflict the possibility of a new battle between China and Taiwan can cause more Ripples and intensify the supply deficit there is a significant oil embargo in the United States in the 1970s everyone requires oil it's not just for getting to and from work food cannot be carried to local grocery shops without oil your doctor cannot drive to work trains and flights cannot operate power outages disrupt your League of Legends battle Amazon deliveries cannot reach you and Starbucks cannot offer you boba when Boba is present you know something is wrong when oil prices become too high the entire economy comes to a halt the cost rise caused by costlier oil is passed on to normal consumers everything else becomes more expensive as well another factor is the harsh regulation of markets goods and labor in an otherwise inflationary environment many believe that President Richard Nixon's policies may have led to the 1970 recession which may have set the stage for future periods of stagflation in an attempt to hold prices down president Richard Nixon imposed tariffs on Imports and froze wages and prices for 90 days economic chaos resulted from the rapid acceleration of prices once controls were relaxed although appealing this explanation of the 1970s stagflation fails to explain later periods where both unemployment and Prices rose simultaneously but now the question is is the U.S heading to stagflation if yes then why the United States is not now experiencing stagflation while inflation is high corporate earnings are also High everything is fine as long as the companies can keep their pricing down and earn a profit countries that must import gasoline or food are far more likely to experience stagflation both the United States and Russia are exporters both India and China are net oil importers but net Food exporters they are more vulnerable to stagflation than the United States or Russia countries that import both will be the hardest hurt oil prices have already risen due to the conflict with Russia if there is another war with China at such a point the inflation level will hit an all-time high ever wonder why because China is the world's Factory we import everything from China and if China stops giving us cheap stuff things get expensive as we all know if products get more expensive people lose their employment people who are unemployed commit crimes if it wasn't evident crime is bad the United States present objective is to diversify Supply chains from China to more reliable countries such as India Vietnam and Thailand only until the U.S is no longer dependent on a single country can it be confident I want to let you people know what the government and the Federal Bank are doing the pandemic era the government printed a lot of money in the last few years a lot over 40 percent of all US Dollars ever printed were created in 2020 alone this paved the path for the current period of tremendous inflation too much inflation is harmful thus we must limit inflation the government is purposefully raising tax rates raising interest rates and buying debt in order to absorb Market liquidity and control inflation it's a common occurrence any country with a fiscal policy modifies tax and interest rates on a regular basis to fulfill annual inflation targets the issue is how quickly they transition from printing money to consuming money there was a sudden supply of money followed by a sudden shortage people felt the shock now finally coming to the main part of the video and that is Ray dalio's warning dalio has joined a long line of critics who are arguing that the FED hasn't been a good driver their decisions have been Rusty slow and overly aggressive causing harm to the ordinary man quote central banks will have to use their powers to drive the markets and economy like a competent driver drives a car with gentle application areas of the gas and brakes to produce solidity rather than by hitting the gas hard and then trying to hit the brakes hard leading to lurching forward and backward says the billionaire funder of Bridgewater Associates the FED attempted to achieve a gentle Landing by gradually lowering inflation and mitigating the impact of high oil prices on the economy the FED seeks low inflation and high employment attempting to get the best of both worlds but dalio believes the FED is greedy quote in the long run the Fed will most likely chart a medium path that will result in stagflation dalio has stated in multiple interviews that he is concerned that the FED will fail to meet its objectives resulting in a stagflation will it take place time will only tell those who are paying attention on the other hand have already begun to act your investing strategy must be adjusted in these turbulent times how to invest during stagflation when an economy experiences stagflation most firms feel the strain everything is becoming more expensive and people are losing their jobs businesses that are critical to human survival are your best bet during these times food will always require agricultural land as a result it is one of the finest Hedges against inflation deflation or stagflation when an economic downturn is on the horizon billionaires rush to rural farming oil firms are another excellent investment opportunity the large oil companies have benefited the most from the Russia Ukraine conflict because of the once in a lifetime windfall several countries like India were forced to Levy additional taxes on their oil corporations as previously stated oil is so intertwined with our economy that we cannot function without it when circumstances are rough simply buy oil food and land get rid of your high-end equities like Tesla and Apple when they have to pick between upgrading to a new phone and feeding their family people are significantly less likely to buy a new Apple phone or poorly built electric cars a crisis does not affect all countries or Industries equally when the kingdom comes you could want to diversify your Holdings in a foreign country for example if stagflation is caused by a trade war with China Investing in Friendly exporting countries such as India Japan and the Philippines is a good option if stipulation is due to a shortage of food invest in food companies in Brazil Canada and America that are major exporters of food as long as you diversify your Investments and net worth across asset classes and countries you should be able to weather stagflation relatively unscathed find your ideal Investments with the help of REITs and index funds and that was all for today's video I hope you guys found it informative what are your thoughts on stagflation how would you invest during stagflation let us know in the comments below if you have any questions do not hesitate to ask them and I will get back to you if you haven't subscribed yet make sure to hit the Subscribe button and hit the Bell icon if you found this video helpful give it a thumbs up and don't forget to share the knowledge with those who might need it I will be back with more videos until then take care and stay tuned