저자: 미상 · 외국인
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하반기 미국 증시는 급등했지만 Ray Dalio와 Stanley Druckenmiller는 통화긴축의 시차 효과가 아직 본격화되지 않았다며 경기 경착륙(hard landing)과 은행권·파산 확산 가능성을 경고한다. 거장 투자자 관점: Dalio는 금리를 0%에서 5.25%까지 올린 긴축의 영향이 6~24개월 시차를 두고 나타난다고 보며 선행지표 중심으로 봐야 한다고 주장한다. Druckenmiller는 Fed가 탄약을 다 썼다고 평가하고, 실업률이 더 오를 수 있으며 실리콘밸리은행 등은 빙산의 일각이라고 말한다. Druckenmiller는 AI 관련주(엔비디아, 마이크로소프트)에 큰 베팅을 해 올해 수억 달러 수익을 냈지만 엔비디아는 너무 빨리 올라 추격 매수는 권하지 않는다고 한다. Buffett 관점: 버크셔가 일본 5대 종합상사 지분을 평균 약 9% 가까이로 늘렸다고 전하며, 미국 주식이 아닌 일본에서 저평가 가치를 찾고 있다고 해석한다. 다만 1분기 버크셔는 순매도였다(매수 약 30억 달러, 매도 약 130억 달러)는 근거를 든다. 시장 심리·지표: CNN 공포탐욕지수는 극단적 탐욕 구간이며, 바론스 등 잡지 표지를 과열 신호로 본다(2021년 타임지 머스크 표지 이후 테슬라 50% 하락 사례 언급). 반면 FactSet 기준 S&P500 2분기 예상 이익은 전년 대비 6.4% 감소로, 코로나 이후 최대 감소 폭이 될 수 있다고 한다. 이익 감소는 4분기·1분기에 이어 연속 전망된다. 진행자의 실행 방침: 300% 상승 여력이 없으면 추격하지 않고, 현금 비중을 늘리기 위해 일부 포지션을 줄인다고 밝힌다. 좋은 기업의 기준으로 반복 매출, 현금 창출력이 높은 재무구조, 현금 흐름의 주주환원, 내부자 지분 보유(경영진과의 이해 일치)를 제시한다. 리스크: 경기침체 시 현금 소진형 기업의 부담 확대, 은행권 추가 부실 가능성, 높은 밸류에이션과 악화되는 이익의 괴리. 출연자 전망: Dalio와 Druckenmiller는 경기 하강 및 긴축 후폭풍을 경고하는 방향이며, 진행자 역시 단기 과열에 대한 경계 입장이다.
다듬은 글
the U.S stock market indices have ripped higher so far in 2023 with major investor favorites like apple and Microsoft both up over 40 Tesla stock over 100 percent higher so far this year where do we go from here in this video I'm going to explore the perspectives from some of the greatest investors including Stanley druckenmiller Ray dalio and Warren Buffett to understand how they're positioning themselves recently maybe their perspective on the macro economy let's dive in right now to understand Ray dalio's perspective on where we are he says we haven't even seen the consequences yet really with regard to the Federal Reserve tightening with significant hike in interest rates from around zero to five five and a quarter percent currently and what he's really referring to is how there's a lag with monetary tightening oftentimes it's somewhere between six months to 24 months before you really start feeling the impact a lot of investors are focused on hey what's the latest lagging indicator like unemployment but the reality is you need to be focusing on the leading indicators which are showing generally an economy that is Contracting or facing significant pressure so he's saying look focus on you know where we're heading versus where we've been we haven't seen the consequences from the significant monetary tightening because there's typically a significant lag effect that we haven't yet experienced with asset prices and the US economy you see Stanley druckenmiller he's saying we are on the brink of a hard Landing in the US claiming that the FED is basically wasted all our bullets in case you're wondering if you should even consider Stanley drucken Miller a very successful Trader over his career he generated over a 30 annualized return for 30 years with no single down year so on a hypothetical basis that would be the equivalent of investing ten thousand dollars at the start not putting in a dollar more and then walking away with over 25 million dollars 30 years later so just an incredible track record for Stanley druckenmiller once again without a single down year so I like to hear what he has to say now that he's just managing his own funds he says look our Central cases there's more shoes to drop he's talking about not only the asset markets I.E the stock market but also the economy so we haven't really seen the full pinch to the economy meaning unemployment could you know tick up a little bit higher he also goes when you go from this kind of environment the biggest broadest asset bubble ever he's talking about the massive you know manias that you saw post coveted due to record stimulus you know the silly you know monkey pictures being sold for millions of dollars and then you jack interest rates up 500 basis points so five percent in a year which this is very similar comment to Ray dalio I think the probability is that Silicon Valley Bank Bed Bath and Beyond they're probably the tip of the iceberg so he's saying look the challenges you've seen the bankruptcies you've seen this is probably just starting you're probably going to see an uptick in bankruptcies and you're also probably going to see continued pressure and challenges in the banking sector after all with many of the mega Banks offering around zero percent on their deposits and where you can get you know four percent Plus on your cash elsewhere you know there still is that incentive to pull funds and move it elsewhere and I'll talk more about that in just a second what I'm personally doing with my own cash he himself has invested and I don't think he's gone heavily invested but he's made a sizable bet with stocks that have benefited from artificial intelligence like Nvidia as well as Microsoft so he's made hundreds of millions of dollars just this year on these bets because Microsoft has done well and Nvidia has done even better up you know several hundred percent because he saw the trend with AI and he said hey I want to lean into it I wouldn't necessarily chase this I did a prior video on Nvidia it might be getting ahead of itself I think it is just based on how fast it's moved so I wouldn't necessarily chase that behavior you know it's worked for him but he's a Trader he may get in and out of it that's Stanley druckenmiller let's look at a long-term investor like Warren Buffett just today he announced that Berkshire Hathaway is increasing their stake in five Japanese trading houses so boosting their average investment to a little under nine percent so this is another signal like hey he's not buying heavily into U.S stocks right now he's finding value elsewhere with Japan now he's able to do things that other investors cannot do because he can borrow using Berkshire Hathaway so issue Bond funds in Yen the Japanese currency and sort of offset his currency risk so it is certainly easier for him to do this than let's say an everyday investor and he's also making a broad-based bet where he's saying I want to own things that are statistically cheap so maybe trading at a you know High single digits or low teens earnings multiple and that take their earnings and buy back stock and so he's it's really a basket saying I like this structure where if you have these low valuations you maybe have a little bit of inflation and you use this low valuation and your free cash flow to buy back stock it can result in attractive returns to shareholders so that's I think what he's looking at here with his basket of Japanese stocks because it really isn't one single bet on a particular Market he's it's a you know it's a bet on these Japanese companies but these sub companies manage many many many different businesses hundreds of different businesses when you zoom out a bit using AI ticker chat which is a artificial intelligence platform that now helps you analyze stocks first month is free see the link below in terms of using AI ticker chat quickly pull up Berkshire Hathaway's financials under the cash flow statement you can see in the last quarter Berkshire you know berkshire's Warren Buffett was actually a net seller of stock you know he purchased a little under 3 billion of stock and he sold 13 billion dollars worth of stock so if that isn't yet another signal that you know it's not like he's finding something super compelling in his Home Market you know that he's looking at you you combine this with Ray dalio and Stanley druckenmiller it doesn't strike me as Super enticing okay so where does the market potentially go from here after seeing a significant rally so far in 2023 well first of all I also recently bought more of a stock that I think has over 300 upside expect to raise prices soon so Now's the Time to act if you'd like to lock in a favorable rate and taking stock of where we are right now look at the CNN you know greed index Greed for your business index and right now it's pointing at extreme greed now this is a metric that tracks momentum but broadly as an investor indicator you know you want to think when things when investors are fearful that's when you buy when investors are extremely greedy that's when you consider taking a few chips off the table or saying hey I'm not going to necessarily Chase right now and so I'm looking at this and I think this is a very easy public signal to investors that a lot of folks are thinking about chasing a lot of folks are looking at the success of Nvidia and you know what Stanley druckenmiller did and thinking about Ai and they're thinking man I want to participate too and they're looking to they're pushing it further and further into extreme greed and that is not something I encourage at all you see this further with magazine covers like Barons talk about how this Market has legs I personally love the indicators that you get from for magazine covers you know for example just recently you know I think at the end of 2021 you had Time Magazine make Elon Musk Man of the Year and there's a there's a curse I did a prior video on this where you know typically when you have the man of the year award you know within the next year or so the stock gets hammered and that's what happened with Tesla stock fell 50 and oftentimes these magazine covers really do coincide near you know Proxima within a couple months of you know Peak movements or pivot movements uh you saw similar movements with historic magazine covers going back to the.com Bubble as well as the.com busts you know going back to 2009 the great financial crisis uh near the bottom there there was a March 2009 similar cover of like oh this is this is over blood in the streets and then you know saw a similar you know equities are dead um you know during uh the previous you know the where this bull market previously started in the 1980s so you look at all this and I I look at magazine covers as a very interesting indicator of picking up the Zeitgeist of the time how people are feeling at the time and potentially suggesting okay maybe we're getting closer to that sort of pivot point you know Baron's clearly saying they're they're excited I personally look at this and think don't chase don't go look to go okay I gotta go put more money in Nvidia like some of these other investors I personally say I want to hold more cash and So currently currently I'm getting you know over four and a half percent indirect Brokers you can see the link below so I'm thinking how do I add more to my cash balances so later this week I'm going to call it out to my subscribers I don't know investing then I'm actually going to be easing out of some of my positions easing up you know taking a few chips off the table just to build that cash position I do not like seeing you know a period where there's a lot of extreme greed and people are reaching and I I I want to look at the fundamentals that's the whole basis of this Channel I want to look and understand you know there's Sizzle and their stake and what's actually the stake is it quality what's going on here look at the S P 500 and you see wait a second and this is from factset they're talking about the estimated earnings for the S P 500 for the second quarter is actually a decline of 6.4 this would be the largest earnings decline reported by the index since covet won earnings for the s p fell by 30 I don't like seeing this indicator because not only do you have greed pushing things up which is pushing valuations higher but the underlying fundamentals are actually getting worse because you're looking at earnings really taking a toll and this is not the first quarter that's projected to face a decline for the S P 500 you've seen that now in the fourth quarter of last year the first quarter of this year now the second quarter of this year so you see animal spirits pushing things higher at the same time that earnings are coming under pressure I think there are a couple of key takeaways that investors should consider that I'm personally doing for my own investment Journey number one don't chase so I'm looking for things that can go up 300 if it can't meet that hurdle then I'm not going to be let's say adding significantly more Capital I'm not looking to do that I want to find things that I can comfortably say over the next you know five plus years 300 that's that's all I want to think about things that I'm going to be putting my personal capital in so you should have a formula have a method that you stick to one time when people are extremely greedy and when people are extremely fearful I'm looking at this and I'm thinking I don't want to chase I want to do the opposite of what I'm seeing from a lot of folks right now and the magazine covers right now I think the other aspect and this is timeless is that you want to find quality you want to find quality businesses you want to find quality relationships in life but with regard to businesses what is quality mean so quality for me means a couple of things one is recurring Revenue so that means even if there is even if Ray dalio and Stanley druckenmiller are right and that there is this hard Landing that there's a high degree of recurring Revenue so even if there's a tougher session these businesses will hold up so recurring revenue is a key aspect to Quality another aspect is balance sheet do they have the cash to withstand a tough period do they generate lots of free cash flow so I'm looking at easing out of some or easing up some of my positions that are cash burned you know that are saying hey you know what if we Face a recession or cash burn could get even worse so that's something you know another aspect to Quality is what's the cash flow Dynamics look like another aspect is are they returning the cash flow to shareholders that's ideally what I want to see but I'd say even more important than that is is there an alignment with management particularly you get that with high Insider ownership so I want to buy things you know and if you look at my top Holdings you oftentimes see that where management owns a key stake in the business and so that's those are the key angles from a quality business that I'm thinking about you know in terms of how I want to invest right now particularly when some of the greatest investors in the world are either taking chips off the table you know Warren Buffett broadly a net seller in the first quarter despite his increased Japan bet and you have Ray dalio and druckenmiller saying yeah hard Landing we haven't really felt the consequences so I hope this video has been helpful for you saying don't chase stick to a rational process to find quality Investments and if you enjoyed it to unrivaled investing
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