저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏은 현재 경기가 전반적으로 강하며 기업 수요가 실제 소비 중심으로 견조하다고 진단한다. 거시경제: 1분기 GDP 2.3%는 예상보다 높았으나 계절조정 문제로 과대 평가 가능성이 있다고 봤고, 장기 평균(약 2%)보다 강하다고 평가했다. 버크셔 자체 사업활동 지수는 금융위기 이후 매년 개선되는 추세다. 미래 전망: 6개월·1년 뒤 경기는 알 수 없다고 선을 그었다. 애플: 실적이 기대보다 좋았고 아이폰 판매는 다소 약했으나 시장 반응을 긍정 평가. 애플은 2위 기업의 약 2배 이익을 내는 놀라운 기업이라고 말했다. 단기 실적 전망에 매달리기보다 10~20년 뒤 사업 가치를 보고 투자해야 한다고 강조했다. 1분기 애플 지분을 상당폭 추가 매수했다고 밝혔으며(약 7,500만 주 증가 언급), 상세 내역은 10-Q 공시에서 확인하라고 했다. IBM: 대부분 매도해 현재 보유 주식이 사실상 0이라고 밝힘. 웰스파고: 버크셔 지분이 10% 근처라 자사주 매입에 따른 10% 상한 유지를 위해 소량 매도를 조정 중. 필립스 지분 일부도 매도해 10% 아래로 낮췄다. USG: 약 30% 지분을 18년간 보유, 이사 4명 재선임에 반대표를 던졌다. 회사 측이 Knauf의 42달러 인수 제안에 대해 협상 의사를 밝힌 점을 긍정 평가. 현금 및 기타: 1분기 전체적으로 주식을 순매수했고 현금 비중은 다소 줄었으나 여전히 큼. 제너럴일렉트릭(GE) 신임 CEO 플래너리를 높이 평가. 리스크: 경기 사이클·계절조정 불확실성, 애플 아이폰 판매 둔화 가능성.
다듬은 글
Morin it's great to see you here yeah you are getting ready for the invasion the invasion yeah we sent out a record number of tickets by just a couple percent but but our previous record was in the 50th anniversary of taking over Berkshire was three years ago and then it dropped after that and Yahoo started broadcasting this year we set a records that meet the 50th anniversary so we had we think we had about 42,000 people at that previous record and if the attendance is proportional to tickets will be up slightly everything I mean it's I just left the dinner that with all the managers and I loved seeing them and we talked a lot like I like I like the shareholders and it's nothing but fun we're here really to respond to them Charlie and I are you know we want to talk about what's on their mind I do I do have a little little change in the format on Saturday where I think I'm going to give them a little lesson perhaps at the start might be useful to them but we'll see what happens what you just came from a dinner with managers where you and Charlie were interviewed in front of all of them wins last time you saw charlie last time I saw Charlie was that the off-site directors meeting in October last fall I I don't get the Los Angeles much Charlie doesn't come here anymore I mean it was a time actually when his mother was alive he's spent more time here and and he but I used to spend a good bit more time in California at Southern California so we may only see each other perhaps twice a year maybe three times a year you know Jerell know this I saw him the night because we've met and I may not see him again till we walk down our separate aisles to go up on the stage now we we are unrehearsed hundreds always such a good gauge of what's happening in the economy not only because of the businesses you own like the utility company and because of Burlington Northern but also because of all the holdings you haven't so many other companies what would you say the economy looks like to you right now well right now I mean I'm not know what the future holds but business is pretty strong generally and that's true I think worldwide it's you look at our international metalworking companies based in Israel they sell little tools that go into big tools big machine tools and they sell them worldwide and nobody is buying them to use two years from now or one year from now they're buying them because they're they're using those machines to do punch holes or do whatever they may be doing it's very much a current consumption type operation and that is up significantly worldwide I mean after another it has been proved four or five months and if you look at electric component electronic components we have a subsidiary that's a huge distributor of those and again worldwide not just in the United States but Asia and in Europe as well that it's it's we can't fill the orders fast enough so businesses certainly it's it's better it's it's it's it's better than and I don't know what that means for six months from now but but car loadings are up in the rail industry and so on so first quarter GDP was 2.3 percent that was higher than expected but we also had a lot of economists like ian Shepherdson saying that you should add 0.9 percent of that because the first quarter has had this weird thing going on for years now it's as if you were trying to put a finger on it as 2.3 percent sound right for the US GDP should it be 3 percent what does it feel well it all existed the last seven or eight years of average to two percent roughly it's stronger than that right now there but but that's no way to calibrate it through and you know they have their own problem with seasonal adjustments as you point out in the first quarter they've got the wrong judgment but they've had years to work on it they say ok get it solved I would say that the Berkshire Hathaway index of activity business activity it's been improving year after year after the financial panic we just heard from some companies in the last couple of weeks that you're a big shareholder in that Berkshire Hathaway is a big shareholder in Apple came out with earnings this week that were better than expected iPhone sales were still a little weak the street loved what they saw what did you think I like what I saw yeah their surprises I mean it isn't it unbelievable company I mean if you look at Apple I think it earns almost twice as much as the second most profitable company yeah it states that it's a wide wide gap I mean it's it's an amazing business I mean here's a company that's you know whatever the earnings are 60 billion or whatever and you can put all their products on a dining room table I mean there were a lot of doubters on Wall Street before those numbers came out this week were you in the camp that was a little worried about what was happening well I would we don't know what for the next quarter I mean it is incredible to me I'll you be the investor conference calls after reports or you've read all the analyst reports and they definitely talk about what it's going to next year nobody buys a farm based on what they think it's gonna rain next year or not they buy it because they think it's a good investment over 10 or 20 years so the the relevant question when you're looking at buying part of the business what you're doing when you buy a stock is where's it gonna be in 10 or 20 years it may be that you don't know in which case you don't have to do anything but the idea of spending loads of time trying to guess how many I bought whatever maybe are gonna be sold and I given three month period or something it just to be it totally misses the point I mean it it was like worrying about the number of blackberries you know ten years ago what really caught was going to happen over the next ten years so the shares sold down before that heading into it does do you like the stock could be bought more of it do you think that that's another place you want to be well I don't talk about what we're gonna do but but our 10-q is coming out on Saturday mornings so they can actually figure it out I'm looking at the footnotes in there that we bought quite a bit more Apple and in the first quarter at the first calendar quarter of this year it's their second quarter this Polly more than you had reported it in February when we got the SEC filings I think it was a hundred and sixty three and a half but we had a year well that was probably that was I think that was as December 31st and I think it counts are patching the hole they just do maybe but you're right we had 100 odd million shares and wait so you bought a lot more well it'll come out Saturday morning and so it'll be reported and we're we're not gonna be active now so we you'll see it went up about 75 million jerk Wow okay you had gotten rid of most of your IBM shares as of the year end right a little bit do you still have those no you have zero IBM shares right now I I think we have zero Wow Warren let's talk a little bit about move we didn't we didn't we'd sold almost all of them we have not had massive sales I was finishing up you've got that figured out things that you've done can I ask about Wells Fargo is that a situation where you've sold any shares well we we are there's several companies like this were we're right at the 10% level so they repurchase shares we try to anticipate that just by a tenth of a percent or a two tenths of a percent because we do not want to go over 10 percent particularly yeah that's that's certainly the most dramatic example we also sold a chunk of Phillips to bring us below 10 and we announced that at the time so something like Wells we want to stay just below 10 so that involves selling minor amounts of stock but it's only the be below 10% that's all anything of a discretionary nature about us because I was surprised to see the Berkshire voted down the idea of the four directors of USG and to see the largest shareholder not going along with these four directors who were standing for re-election what happened well you're correct we owned about 30% or something like that and and we had owned it for 18 years well we had known all of that but we don't a good good sized piece and we had twice I've come to the aid of the company in financing when they needed to come out of bankruptcy in 2006 and then when that money that they raised then got hit by the housing total free fall 2008 they needed more money and we came up with it and so we've been in a very very long time and it's true that I can't think of the time there may have been one of the sketch my mind that we voted against directors but we did not think they'd responded properly and in terms of not sitting down and and least talking to go now who also was held their stock for 18 years and owns ten or so percent of the company and and we did not think that the directors were were essentially doing their jobs that we we said we intended the boat against we don't have any rival directory running against or anything sorry but we did go against them the company has since at USG has said that it is going to sit down and talk to them it thinks that the 42 our dollars that that Knopf is offering is not a fair bid see what happens that I was very pleased that that the directors decided to do that so I think they responded properly and have you talked to the USG CEO she she called me two days ago I can't remember exactly what but what I'm not sure what you day it was but but we had a very cordial conference it was after they announced they were going to sit down and she did call me well it's it's it's a little less but I would estimate that's a little over a hundred no we bought more stocks by a considerable margin than we sold in the first quarter which is usually truly not done necessarily by a considerable margin but we are usually a buyer of stocks and and in the first quarter the Apple along them you can figure it out that you know they were talking twelve or thirteen billion dollars or some number like that so it it brought down our cash position moderately it still leaves you with a pretty big I the answers we're not doing anything on that but I have to say I actually admire John Flannery and what he's doing he's got a very tough job but he's doing very logically and I'm very familiar with he and we've done we do a lot of business with him both on the buying and the selling time so so and it's a Turkic American company from way way way back you know in the original dow jones average so i I want the company to do well well I really appreciate your time and I don't want to take any mor
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