저자: ChamathPalihapitiya,DavidSacks,DavidFriedberg,JasonCalacanis등 · 외국인
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2022년 전망: 결론적으로 출연자들은 2022년 거시 환경을 '글로벌 분쟁 증가·연준 QE 종료에 따른 유동성 축소' 국면으로 보며, 에너지·방산·비트코인 방어 포지션과 전통 결제망(비자·마스터카드) 역풍을 핵심 베팅으로 제시했다. [거시·지정학] Chamath: 2022년 글로벌 분쟁(incumbent의 정권 유지, 인플레이션, 대중국 대응)이 늘 것이라는 역발상 베팅. 이 환경에서 에너지 원자재·에너지주와 방산주가 잘 될 것이며 최근 에너지주·방산주에 큰 베팅을 했다고 밝힘. 금의 역할을 비트코인이 대신할 수 있다고 언급. [결제·핀테크] Chamath: 2022년 최대 패자는 비자·마스터카드 등 전통 결제망과 생태계이며, 이에 대한 수익성 높은 스프레드 트레이드가 생애 최대일 수 있다고 함. 스트라이프에 대해서도 반대 입장(fade). [크립토] 암호화폐 기업 중 백서·프로토콜 유틸리티가 있고 전통 비즈니스를 대체하는 인프라를 만드는 비상장 기업에 장기 긍정. 'mirror table'(캡테이블 관리 대체) 예시 언급. 다수 코인 프로젝트는 2022년 크게 흔들릴 것이라는 취지(약 90%가 폭발/붕괴 가능성 언급). [유동성 리스크] Sacks: 연준이 2022년 3월 이후 QE를 중단하며, 유동성에 의존해 상승한 자산(스포츠카드·컬렉터블, 아트, 크립토, 일부 성장주)이 가장 큰 패자가 될 것이라 우려. 주식시장은 금리 인상은 선반영했으나 유동성 축소는 완전히 반영 못 했을 수 있다고 봄. [정치] AOC가 2022년 6월 민주당 예비선거에서 슈머에 도전하겠지만 패할 것이라는 예측(Chamath). Sacks: 2022년 말까지 민주당 내 빌 클린턴에 대한 재평가(중도화 필요), 히스패닉·아시안계 유권자의 11월 공화당 지지 확대 예상. 코로나 관련 언론이 락다운 입장을 뒤집고 대응 방향을 수정할 것이라는 전망. [조건·리스크] 대부분 장기 구조적 견해이며, 개별 국내 종목·지수·환율·금리에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 발언은 없음. 발언 중 '과거 설명'과 '조건부 전망'이 섞여 있어 확신도는 낮게 평가.
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i'd say 90 of them are probably going to start to blow up next year what do you got your mother well i guess i'm fading you guys and i'm also fading implicitly freedberg's pick of stripe but my biggest business loser for 2022 is visa and mastercard and traditional payment rails and the entire ecosystem around it so i think that this is the year you can put on what probably will be the most profitable spread trade of my lifetime but uh you know i tried to highlight and continue my uh kind of contrarian bet that we're going to see increased global conflict next year again driven by you know incumbents trying to hold on to political office and increase inflation and fueling economic growth and the american response to china so in a world of increased global conflict i think assets that do really well are energy commodities and energy stocks i recently made a big bet on energy stocks uh defense stocks and it used to be a gold it could be the case that bitcoin uh you know sees a a role as being a defensive uh position in portfolios in a world of uh of war and conflict so those are my kind of macro um for asset the companies you want to be long are those private companies in crypto that you can read the white papers of whose protocols have utility and who's building some element of infrastructure that replaces a traditional business so as long as you can kind of build those things up biology for example had a bunch of tweets this weekend where he was like you know i he has this idea for a mirror table what is that that replaces you know cap table management right now why is that important well it because it touches all of these really important kyc aml investing laws across all these countries in all of these places it's just a very simple example of where the new company that actually builds that capability of these mirror tables will do so at virtually no cost and so it'll have a 50-person team and so they're not going to have offices all over the world their cost basis will be you know an or order or two orders of magnitude actually visa and mastercard became a tax but i think a firm does break that a firm breaks it because yeah the people who are selling then decide you know what we'll give a little bit of a discount here to get more people to buy go ahead they were the classic network monopoly network effect monopoly business right like they got the small businesses they got the credit cards and by extension the consumers on the network and ultimately they created these these absolutely locked in networks um but as with all networks complacency kind of you know drives innovation and this field innovation that we're seeing is now starting to figure out ways to not just crack their way into the network but to replace them with an entirely different model last point on this this is not one where i think this disruption happened slow i think it happens swiftly swiftly being five to ten years no like in a year yeah jamal's point is really interesting because there's you know there are several billion people globally who do not have credit and who are unbanked and so if you think about where this is more likely to come from it's more likely to come from an innovative model in those markets that then ultimately finds its way into the developed world versus you know trying to break apart visa and mastercard and go get these small businesses to switch out of them and so on uh today so it's it's a really interesting okay saks what do you got i don't know if it's biggest loser but the thing i'm most worried about is in 2022 the fed is going to stop quantitative easing or so they have said they are i guess march will be the last month in which they do this qe so starting in april there won't be any of this liquidity pumped into the system and so i think the the losers are going to be any of these asset classes that are heavily dependent on or have benefited from all this excess liquidity sloshing through the system uh it's true that the stock market i think has already priced in rate increases and an increase in the discount rate but i don't know if markets can fully price in a reduction in liquidity we don't know exactly what that's going to look like and so if liquidity is reduced next year i think that could reverberate through a bunch of markets including you know everything from sports cards you know collectibles which have gone through the roof to art to crypto to you know maybe um some growth stocks and on and on it goes so that's my biggest worry is what happens when the fed stops qe and the biggest loser is markets because of uh quantitative the markets that have to get off drugs basically yeah i mean so i i have a couple of them here actually you want to wait and go after everybody else sure yeah go ahead uh i don't even know if this is contrarian or just unconventional but i think that all of this pressure in on the progressive left will manifest in the chosen one aoc deciding to step up and run against schumer in the primary in june of 2022 and she will lose wow that's a good prediction i like jamaat's prediction that's a bold one yeah that she would lose his ball well sorry just to give a little bit of color in this like let's just assume that she doesn't right and and you know she shouldn't but think about where she's sitting build back better is over there's an enormous amount of stuff happening right now where you know it looks like the progressive left is really going to be put under pressure and it's almost as if if she's really going to be the standard bearer and she needs to do something quickly otherwise she's going to have to wait until she's 38 you know she's you know another six years from now because it's not unlikely that she's going to run against kristen you know kirsten gillibrand so this is kind of like it may be a moment where out of her sheer frustration she steps up and then we will see whether freeberg is right or i'm right whether the populism is really around the left or the populism is really around the silent majority what do you got sex i think it's i think that's a very good prediction um in in a similar way i predict that there will be a strange new respect for bill clinton in the democratic party by the end of next year why because after the red wave there'll be a recognition that they need to move towards the center they need to triangulate and and clinton was the one who provided the formula for doing this he dragged the democratic party back to the center after they were losing elections and the other piece of this is going to be that it's already the case in polling that hispanics and asian americans now are swing voters and i think you're going to see in november 2022 that they go for republicans in big numbers and so the idea that the democratic party can just coast to election based on demographics i think that theory is going to be imperiled yeah and so and so they're going to be looking to clinton and maybe not so much obama as the as sort of the predicate they should be you know aspiring to in the future i think what's important about that is those groups of people i think are offended by the free money get something for nothing they're hard-working immigrant people who have pride they don't want handouts you know they and it probably pissed off a lot of unions who would have loved to have just had a positive test and stay home forever the teachers unions particularly here we are so this is a really tough situation well and look and to be clear the message that the media is going to deliver about kovid next year it'll be the first time i agree with it but it's completely dishonest to them to pretend like they were never in favor of lockdowns and they completely inflated the threat and created this whole hysteria and next year they're going to have to back off but also take it because no politicians broadly speaking about everything you
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