🔴 Dr. Marc Faber: Prepare To Lose A TON Of Money (Here's Why)

요약 보기

결론: 파버는 자산 디플레이션과 소비자물가 인플레이션이 공존하는 국면에 진입했다고 보며, 손실 최소화 포지션을 준비하라고 주장한다. 자산시장 전반: 상업용 부동산은 일부 80%까지 하락, 미국 콘도 가격은 약 15% 하락했다고 주장. 주식은 소수 대형주만 상승하고 뉴욕증시 신고가 종목은 적어 광범위한 랠리가 아니라고 진단. 가상자산은 50~80% 하락, 트럼프 일가 관련 자산은 0으로 간다고 언급. 인플레이션: 실제 생활물가는 연 7~12% 상승, 미국 가구의 70%가 실질 소득 악화를 겪는다고 주장. 근거는 보험료, 병원비, 항공권, 휘발유, 주택 관련 체감 물가와 Shadow Stats의 존 윌리엄스 CPI(10% 이상)이며, 정부 CPI는 조작됐다고 주장. PPI는 약 6%로 CPI로 전이될 것이라고 언급. 금리: 현재 미국 10년물 약 4.55%는 인플레이션 대비 너무 낮다고 봄. 금리가 높아지면 이자 지급이 유동성을 만들어 인플레이션 효과가 생긴다는 취지로 설명. 금·은: 금 약 4,328달러, 은 약 68달러. 은은 120달러 고점 대비 약 50% 하락. 은 과열이 원인이며 조정 국면이라고 봄. 금은 추가 하락 가능성은 언급했으나 공매도는 하지 않고, 금·은·백금 실물 축적을 권고. 광산주는 일부 익절했고 실물 선호. 연준·정책: 케빈 워시는 경제 지식이 높지만 인플레이션 억제를 위한 volcker식 긴축은 불가능하며 결국 돈을 찍을 것이라고 전망. 현 정부 경제정책은 재앙적이며 관세는 서민에게 부담이라고 비판. 지정학·원유: 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄와 이란·이스라엘 충돌로 원유가 91달러이나 공급 부족은 없으며 70달러 이하가 적정하다고 주장. 중국은 미국의 해협 통제를 허용하지 않을 것이라고 전망. 증시 전망: 반도체 주식 등 일부 대형 기술주는 과도하게 비싸고 미래 이익 기대가 과하다고 봄. 지수는 조작적 상승 압력 후 급락 가능성, 하락은 상승보다 빠를 것이라고 주장. SpaceX 등 대형 IPO는 시장 고점 신호로 부정적 영향 예상. 리스크: 실물 자산 몰수 위험, 자산 버블 붕괴, 유동성 축소 시 급락 가능성.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Everything has gone ballistic and I think we're approaching a time period during which we have to position ourselves how to lose the least money. How to lose the least. Because we're all going to lose money, but how do we lose the least? Because if everybody loses 80% and we're losing 20%, then we're heroes.

02. Then we became relatively rich relative to other people. You're watching Capital Cos and my name is Danny. It is June 8th, 2026. My guest today is the publisher of the Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report. It's Dr. Marc Faber. Mark, thank you so much for coming on again, my friend. It's my pleasure. Thank you and good day to your viewers and listeners.

03. Yeah, well, let's just dive right into the action here, Mark. We are It is Monday. We're about a day removed from Sunday. And the reason why Sunday's so relevant is because we saw resumption in strikes in the Middle East between Iran and Israel last night here. And so, the markets have responded. There really isn't much going on in the metal space, but I want to get your take in on metals regardless here.

04. Let's pull up a chart of gold. Gold is sitting at 4328 right now, pretty much moving sideways from Friday. However, looking at it structurally, it looks like it's broken down beneath support here. Should gold investors and stackers be worried here? I think investors should be worried all the time about losing money because the markets are complex.

05. And especially at the present time what has happened is that already two or three asset classes that were going up beginning with the bull market in 1981 have actually retreated and gone down and some assets they have gone down substantially. So it's not anymore a very one clear one-way street on the upside.

06. One example is commercial properties that are down in some cases by 80% in value. Now retail investors seldom buy an office building and so forth, but they may own office buildings in the pension funds or they may may own office buildings as a result of their investments in REITs or in real estate investment companies and so forth.

07. A second asset class that has started to go down already now 18 months are residential properties in particular condo prices. Condo prices in many American cities are down between 15% already. So these are two major asset classes where people have a lot of money invested in particularly in residential real estate that are no longer going up in value and they are being uh marked down partly because of the interest rates that were expected to go down, but they didn't go down.

08. They're still elevated. And the third asset class are meme stocks. I mean there are many stocks in the indices that are way down from their highs in 2021 beginning of 2022, and are not participating in the bull market. The bull market is driven by very few stocks. If you look at the chart of new highs and new lows on the New York Stock Exchange, very few stocks are making new highs.

09. It's not a broad market rally. So, a lot of people are not doing well in asset markets. And more recently, we also had a break in cryptocurrencies, and a lot of cryptocurrencies are down between 50% and 80%. Anything related to the Trump family will go to zero. And then we also have other assets that have been going down, uh namely uh bonds, which is an important asset for most people.

10. Yes, sir. Here's the US 10-year yield. It is up to 4.55% today. It It did see a spike on the news of resumption of strikes in the Middle East last night. And if you look at it from a monthly candlestick chart, you'll see that we are pretty much right at resistance here. Looks like Is this Are we looking at higher interest rates coming soon, do you think?

11. I personally think that interest rates are too low at the present level, given the inflationary pressures. Mhm. Uh we can talk for hours about inflation and what inflation is and so forth. But uh for most people, uh they have cost of living that they have to uh spend for necessities and for pleasure.

12. So, we can calculate how much a basket of goods and services cost for a specific, uh, household. Now, your household may have a different sort of inflation than my household because you may have young children that go to school or kindergarten and so forth. And you have, maybe, in expensive insurance policies and so forth.

13. So, each household has a different curve of cost of living increases. But, they are going up, of course, by more than 3% per annum. They're going up in the neighborhood in the US of between 7 and 12% per annum. And so, we have to recalculate real incomes. And the fact is, simply, that 70% of US households are not doing well economically because their cost of living are going up more than their salaries.

14. This is the reality. And this is the reality about which governments lie. They don't want to tell the people that their standards of living are going down, but this is the reality. What, um, based on what indicators? Well, I mean, you can just look around you how much the cost of living are going up.

15. You don't need to be a sophisticated economist that went to Wharton or Harvard or Princeton, whatever it is. Uh, you can just measure what the cost of living are. Look at your insurance premiums. Are they going down or are they going up? Look at your hospital bills and health care costs and so forth and so on.

16. Now, the yesterday case someone sent me an email about the ticket cost for the NBA finals at Madison Square Garden. Mhm. I mean, I never realized that the seat for a game of basketball can cost you something like 10,000 US dollar. I mean, I I wonder who in the world pays these prices. A ringside seat costs a hundred thousand dollars and so forth.

17. I mean, these are prices they were unheard of in the 1970s. When I grew up in the 50s and 60s and so forth, you hardly paid anything to go to a soccer match or whatever it it was. And now these prices are out of the world. I mean, a household with three children, how can they go to basketball game? And then people like you ask me, how on what do you base it?

18. Yes, I tell you on what. John Williams of Shadow Stats, he produces inflation figures according to the methodology that they used in the 70s. And his CPI index is going up by 10% and more. That is the basis of my view and the basis of my view is my experience with prices around the world for airline tickets, for gasoline, for insurance premiums, for home prices, for home supplies and so forth, and so on.

19. And and also the producer price index is don't tell me that there hasn't been any inflation. That is something that I really dispute, and I think the governments, all of them, are lying about this fact. No, no, I believe it. I mean, just look at the PPI as well. It's up 6%. 3% differential between the the PPI and the CPI.

20. That's going to make its way down to the consumer price index, no? Yes, of course. I mean, I mean, the consumer price index is completely doctored, the way they doctor any statistics in favor of the government to make the government look good. And plus, um for people who don't know, I mean, there are incentives to keep the CPI down.

21. It It also diminishes the amount of social security that they have to pay. It diminishes the cost of the interest on the government debt, which is the principal expenditure of the government nowadays, and as you say, it diminishes the cost of living adjustments of social security and many other things.

22. So, the government has a very strong incentive to keep these figures down. And so, internationally, um I think the last time you and I spoke, uh we were talking about China, and uh the the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure to China. Do you have any updates on that, uh given China's reliance on the Strait of Hormuz?

23. Yes, I mean, the update is very simple. China will never allow the US to control the Strait of Hormuz. They will support Iran in the quest to control the Strait because they can control Iran as well if they want to. And the same for the surrounding countries in the Middle East in the north, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and in the west Armenia and Turkey and in the northwest Russia.

24. And in the east India, Pakistan, China, Indonesia, all these countries, they don't want to have the US there opening the tap for oil and closing it at their will, especially if the US is run by what they perceive to be a very erratic and irrational Mr. Trump. And so it begs the question, why how is oil still suppressed down at $91 right now?

25. Well, the fact is simply there is plenty of oil in the world at the present time. There's no need for oil shortage. The oil shortage shortage that we experience at the present time is due to a bottleneck that is orchestrated or implemented by the US and Israel and Iran and so forth that went to war with each other.

26. But other than that, there's no need for oil to be this high. Oil should be maybe around $70 a barrel or lower. There's plenty of oil and there are alternatives. China doesn't depend all that much on oil. If we look look at oil consumption per capita, the US is very dependent, by the way, by that measure.

27. They consume They're among the highest per capita consumptions are in the US, aside from Saudi Arabia and Middle Eastern countries. Right. And then going back to the metal side of things, uh have you found it strange the way metals have behaved the last 3 months since the closure? No, I I don't think I would call it a strange behavior.

28. The metals were it exceptionally strong in 2025 and went up very strongly. And there was quite a lot of speculation, especially in the mining sector. And now we are in a correction phase. And I mentioned to you that several asset classes have begun to go down. And in general, I think we're in a period of asset price deflation and consumer price inflation.

29. In other words, the phenomenon of inflation is that prices move up and down, but not regularly, not evenly. Some prices move up first and then they go down, and other prices come up and so forth. You look at, say, food prices. Food prices expressed in gold are very inexpensive. But you look at say, the S&P, the S&P even in gold is relatively expensive.

30. So, uh my view is that now we're in a correction phase. I have said and I have written that I had sold some mining stocks. I took some profits, but I didn't sell my physical gold because I'm a believer in gold and I've been a believer in gold for the last 40 years. So, I'm not going to change my mind now, especially not given the governments we have in the world.

31. All of them will print money. There's no question about it. Especially the present administration in the US is so bad economically, terrible. They have no clue what is what what moves an economy and what should be done. They're interventionists without any clue. And this is very dangerous, this arrogance and the interventions uh which are not thought out clearly.

32. And this administration, I guarantee you they will end up with an increasing debt that nobody can believe at the present time and interest payments that will keep on going up. They've doubled over the last 5 years already. They'll double again over the next 5 years. The government will be forced to print money just to pay the interest on its debt.

33. All right, quick break here because if you're buying gold or silver the normal way, you're probably overpaying by a lot. And that's because most retail dealers quietly tack on these huge markups. Sometimes 10%, sometimes 20%, sometimes even 30%, and you don't even notice it. It's like paying $115 for a $100 bill.

34. Doesn't make sense, right? So, that's why I've been using the Bullion Standard Pro. It's a membership that basically lets you buy precious metals at real wholesale prices. The same prices that dealers get. So, no inflated premiums, no middleman games. Their platform updates every 5 seconds straight from mints and distributors.

35. So, what you see is literally the real market. And here's the crazy part. If you buy something like this gold American Eagle, here's the amount of money you're going to be saving, at the time of this recording at least. So, it basically pays for itself multiple folds on many occasions, depending on what you buy.

36. And if you want to try it out, they're hooking up my viewers with an exclusive 10% off their first month. Just use promo code cosm10 at checkout. That's c o s m 10 at checkout. So, if you're stacking, investing, or just tired of getting hit with hidden markups, check them out now. Bullion Standard Pro, just click on the link down below in the description box and use promo code cosm10.

37. Now, let's get back to the video. With with the current environment, I feel comfortable to own some gold. But, my worry is, of course, that the governments will take it away from you one day. And uh correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't there a certain level with interest rates that if you get high sufficiently high enough, it becomes inflationary because the high interest payments made to the debt holder creates an inflationary effect as well, where they're getting a a ton of money in return?

38. This is a very difficult relationship to understand how rising asset markets lead to inflation and to liquidity creation. My view is that economists don't clearly understand that when asset markets go up, say we didn't have cryptocurrencies 10 years ago. Now we have had cryptocurrencies that were worth more than $2 trillion.

39. That, in my view, created liquidity. But now that the crypto markets came down, I mean, today they're up, but before they came down it reduced liquidity in the system. And so, what you're saying, interest rates going up, yes, say my liquidity 5 years ago in 2020 I hardly got any interest on my cash.

40. I have a business, I have a an investment advisory business. And I have always a lot of cash, which I need to have as an investor. And on that cash, and I got zero interest to speak of. But now I get like 4 and 1/2. In some cases, I get cash flow of 7% because I have the high dividend stocks. And so, in my case, my liquidity has improved.

41. You know that when I when I about when I speak badly about governments I'm not speaking badly because I'm angry at governments. The governments with their printing of money have enriched me. But as an economist their economic policies are a disaster. A disaster. It's like tariffs. What are tariffs good for?

42. Nothing. What they do is increase the cost of living of poor people in America. The rich people don't feel tariffs. They don't care about tariffs. They make money out of tariffs. But the poor people the 70% of households that live paycheck to paycheck, they are being hurt by tariffs. That is the reality.

43. But of course the media, CNBC and Fox and all these characters, although these characters don't particularly like Mr. Trump, they will avoid telling the truth to the American public. That is for sure. 100%. With the new Fed chair coming on board, do you have any idea do you have any clue as to how he's going to steer the ship?

44. I have a very high opinion of Kevin Warsh as an economist. He understands economics well. There's no question about this. He's well educated and he had uh good jobs and so forth. So he knows the cause and effects of inflation on ordinary people and on asset markets and and and. [clears throat] But he works for a boss that wants to print money and he's born he becomes Fed chairman under conditions that almost necessitate printing of money unless he would tolerate a steep market decline by tightening liquidity meaningfully, meaningfully.

45. There if to a Volcker like Volcker did in '79 when he increased the Fed fund rate at the time the discount rate by 250 basis points in one go. That isn't going to happen because Mr. Warsh uh no matter how how intellectual and economically knowledgeable he is he has powerful friends including his in-laws who are billionaires.

46. He himself is probably close to billion worth with his wife and Trump and so forth. All these people the one thing they don't want is falling asset market. Stop, I guarantee you. So, would you does that imply that we should we we we shouldn't look for a market crash in nominal prices but more so in real value?

47. I.e. um like price in gold? yes. You you're right. That is what you should definitely prepare for and that is why even though I think that gold may go down further here but I wouldn't short gold and silver. Uh but I if you have no gold I would think that you should start to accumulate gold here and silver and platinum.

48. Uh but uh my holdings of gold have been built over a long period of time every month. And I'm comfortable because I don't see how the US could avoid not printing money. Because if they stop printing money, or even if the money supply grows slows down meaningfully, the stock market is going to tumble.

49. I personally think we're in a correction period and that the stock market will go down meaningfully here because some stocks are incredibly overpriced. People don't realize how incredibly overpriced and how the expectations are high about future profits. They think that the semiconductor stocks will earn these earnings gains for the next 20 years.

50. Nothing could be further from the truth. With with with your anticipation of higher gold and silver prices and the fact that you've trimmed off some of some of your mining stocks, does that imply that you see more lag for the mining stocks versus gold and silver? I have a preference for physical gold and silver and platinum because I own gold essentially or or mining assets because I think that some disaster will strike the world.

51. But in a disaster situation, I think that uh owning paper is inferior to owning physical. The only danger I can see for physical ownership of gold, silver, platinum is expropriation by incompetent and vicious governments. That is a risk. But you can avoid that risk to some extent by keeping your assets uh outside the banking system.

52. I see. Well, we've got silver now at $68. Uh we talked about gold at 4,300, but silver's really the one that's been taking a the biggest hit now. It's almost down almost 50% since the $120 high. Um do you have a different prognosis on silver as to why there's weakness there? I think silver got overbought massively because some sort of advisers were claiming that silver will go to $10,000 and so forth.

53. And then the speculators all went into silver and pushed the price up and so forth. We can see this in the commodities market. The small speculators are at a record long position. So there was excessive optimism. You understand, we are in a gigantic asset bubble. Everything has been grossly inflated.

54. I look at the art prices recently. Art prices the the works that go to auction, they are sold for 200% more than the estimates were. Mhm. Everything has gone ballistic. And I think we're approaching a time period during which we have to position ourselves how to lose the least money. How to lose the least.

55. Because we're all going to money. But how do we lose the least? Because if everybody loses 80% and we are losing 20% then we are heroes. Then we became relatively rich relative to other people. Where do you think the assets that will lose the least are? Precious metals. And depressed markets. You understand the stock market say globally.

56. I don't know how many stocks there are. 100,000 or million or what not. Not This is in an inflationary environment in an asset bubble. Not every asset peaks out the same day. If I look at there is an index the Value Line Geometrical Index that measures the performance of all stocks. But it doesn't weight stocks the way the S&P weights stocks by market capitalization.

57. That index is down and is lower than in 2021. That reflects in my view better the performance of individual shareholders because the individual shareholder they were 5 years ago in cannabis stocks. Then they were in the meme stocks, GameStop and AMC and so all the garbage that went down 98% after 2021.

58. And then they were in mining stocks and God knows what. But at the present time they all concentrated in the Fang and Fang related stocks, the Magnificent Seven and AI related stocks where there is a massive supply coming on but not in the marketplace, in market weight. Because they SpaceX will float shares, but only floating shares 5% of market cap.

59. But the index funds will have to buy according to the whole value of the company, which is an illusion because 95% of shares are not traded. So, anyway, it's a long story, but the markets are sort of manipulated upward and there is a sort of a squeeze upward. And when the squeeze ends, the decline will be massive.

60. I repeat, a massive decline because stocks and any market tends to go down more rapidly than it went up. Could it also be the market pricing in I mean much higher money printing and inflation? Is this the market getting ahead of that? There is a time, even in money printing environment, when liquidity tightens.

61. It's a complex matter, and I don't want to go into here a lecture of economics of inflation. But even if you print money, it the issue is in a asset bubble and in a money printing inflationary time, you need to increase the printing of money at an ever accelerating rate. And if the rate doesn't accelerate but slows down, liquidity tightens and markets stumble.

62. And that's what happened with Weimar Republic, right? We had huge fluctuations in the Weimar Republic. But very few people made money, but some people made money because they got out at the right time. And they switched into gold or they switched into foreign currencies and so forth. But in general, uh the Weimar hyperinflation was a disaster for ordinary people.

63. Disaster. But this is also now in the US. If you look at the wealth inequality, it's the highest it's ever been. And in a way, it's kind of also fueling this kind of gambling, um this need to buy uh They force you to gamble because ordinary ordinary people cannot come by with their ordinary income because as I said, the cost of living is going up more than their income.

64. So, they say to themselves, I need to They don't call it gambling. They I need to invest money. So, they rush into illiquid assets like stocks and private equity, private credit, and so forth. And a lot of it will be a complete disaster, believe me. The markets today are not run to enrich the poor people.

65. They're run to en- to enrich the wealthy people even more. What impact do you think that the SpaceX IPO will have on the broad market? I think it will be negative. I think this is a sort of a signal of a major market high uh the IPOs of these three companies. But I don't want to go further into details.

66. I gave you my view about asset markets now, and let's see what happens. Okay, sounds good. Anything else you want to talk about, Dr. Faber? Well, I think I'm done with my tirade against the government. All right. Well, where can people find you? Well, I have a website, gloomboomdoom.com. I repeat, all in one word, gloomboomdoom.com.

67. And I mean, they can Google me, so. All right. We have the link to the gloomboomdoom.com website down below, so check it out everyone. And type go Mark go in the comments section. Let me know your thoughts. I do in fact read the comments. Mark, thank you so much for your time, as always, my friend. Guys, let me know what you thought.

68. Are you in the metal space? Are you investing elsewhere? Art, collectibles, and with all that said, I'll catch you all next time. Thanks for watching. Bye. Thank you very much for your time, and all the best to you viewers and listeners. But of course, good