저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 테슬라 5년 목표주가를 7,000달러로 제시하며 강한 상승을 확신하고, 자율주행·배터리·AI칩이 상승 동력이라고 주장한다. 목표가 산정: 10개 시나리오(파산 포함)에 확률 가중치를 둬 5년(2024년 말) 목표가 7,000달러를 도출했다고 설명. 15,000달러는 도달 가능성이 낮은 상단 시나리오다. 상승 근거 1 - 시장점유율: 테슬라의 글로벌 전기차 점유율이 예상(17%→하락)과 달리 18%로 오히려 상승했다고 언급. 상승 근거 2 - 제조원가: 배터리 원가 하락이 경쟁사보다 약 3~4년 앞서 있고, 경쟁사는 원가 경쟁을 위해 판매 손실을 감수해야 한다고 주장. 상하이 공장 건설·가동 속도와 독일·텍사스 공장 확장도 긍정적으로 평가. 상승 근거 3 - 자율주행: 자체 AI칩 성능이 엔비디아 칩(21 TOPS) 대비 144 TOPS로 약 7배라고 주장. 자율주행 택시 네트워크는 고마진 구독형 수익원이 될 것이며, 자율주행 상용화 확률은 2~3년 내 25%로 가정. 마진 전망: 배터리 기술로 전기차 자체 매출총이익률이 약 40%까지 개선될 수 있고, 자율주행 매출은 80% 이상 마진 가능성을 언급. 리스크/조건: 생산 공정은 직선적이지 않으며 과거 생산 지연 이력이 있음. 시나리오 가중치 방식이라 확률 변화에 민감. 인터뷰 진행자는 목표가를 과장으로 보는 시각도 제시. 진행자 발언: 진행자(Jason 추정)는 15,000달러 목표를 두고 4~5년 내 도달 가능성을 시청자에게 질문하는 형식이며, 본인 의견은 명확히 제시하지 않음. 영상 말미에 Cathie Wood의 '파괴적 혁신 3개 플랫폼 융합' 주장을 소개하며 진행자는 동의하는 입장. 영상 시점: 2020년 10월 영상으로, 이후 시점에서 과거 예측을 회고하는 구성.
다듬은 글
what's up guys my name is jason in today's video i'm going to be taking the time machine back eight months and reacting to a video of kathy woods from arkhan vest bagging up her then seven thousand dollar but now fourteen hundred dollar price target on tesla but let's not waste any time and just get straight into the video we talked about uh tesla bulls and we're going to meet one in just a moment in fact one of the biggest ones on the street but but preface that tesla's wild ride has left many of the analyst community in the dust check out where analysts stood just a year ago on this stock average price star target was roughly 300 a share just above where shares were trading at the time today the average price target is closer to 500 a share and that's more than 30 percent below where the stock closed today after that distinct sell-off next guest thinks tesla has room to run in fact she thinks tesla could hit 15 thousand dollars a share within the next four years let's bring in arc invest ceo and founder kathy wood kathy welcome i know 15 000 a share is not your base case it's your it's your reach case what is your base case basis where this seven hundred dollar stock is in four years yes the base case uh it's a five-year target so the end of twenty-four uh it's seven thousand dollars and we have we've arrived at that price by weighting the probabilities of 10 different scenarios including bankruptcy to be honest so we've been tried to be as fair and balanced as we possibly could be but our confidence level that this is this stock is heading for seven thousand dollars over the next five years is very high so you take out your lowest probability scenarios you take out uh the ones that you think are just aren't going to work or the highly outlandish ones where everything has to click exactly right on what bricks is this seven thousand dollar foundation founded is it improving margins is it the lowering the cost of production of the vehicles as they get up to scale or what yes the there are three sources for the increase in our estimate our estimated price target uh one is as tesla killers entered the market last year we expected uh tesla's market share to go down from 17 globally that includes china to something lower instead it went up to 18 and the reason is 17 in electric vehicles or in all vehicles no electric electric vehicle electric this is global there there are many electric vehicle manufacturers in china very low quality but very damn cathy that's a low blow but right now tesla has over 80 market share just in the us now obviously if you factor in things like china and globally that's going to take a significant hit to the market share but it just goes to show you how dominant tesla is in the us but fast forward now just only eight months and it doesn't seem too unrealistic that tesla will reach that 1400 price target in just the next four to five years so comment down below if you think that they'll actually reach that in the next 45 years i'm actually kind of curious to know and this interview is a prime example of why you should do your own research and come up with your own conclusion and that's just a life tip in general never do something just because someone else tells you to do it unless it's your mom's because you never know it might be one of the best things that's ever happened to you just look at kathy she must be pretty happy with her investment but before we go back to the video just look at the faces of these anchors they must have thought kathy was insane for these price targets so what we're learning is tesla is just so far ahead of the pack and i'm talking about the bmws the mercedes as far as range and other important metrics when it comes to electric vehicles their battery cost is three years ahead three to four years ahead of any other auto manufacturer in terms of the cost declines and so every other auto manufacturer will if they want to be competitive with tesla will and i'm including bmw and daimler and all if they want to be competitive like for like they will have to sell their cars at a loss at the same time they're losing their internal combustion engine business so they're they have a big problem so are you confident enough in their ability to overcome what i would call sort of manufacturing hairballs that have struck them in the past and caused them to miss or delay production targets so nothing is in a straight line you can't promise but what they did in shanghai was unbelievable you know breaking ground and producing within a year and i think they're taking those learnings elsewhere in germany outside of berlin we've been thinking okay that's a setup for bureaucracy they have been welcomed with open arms because germany doesn't want to lose the auto industry right and they don't want to lose the jobs so and now we're hearing potentially about texas so we think they're going to surprise uh on the production side now it took a lot of trial and error just like with their falcon rockets when they were trying to land them it was failure failure failure failure then success and now they've been successful pretty much every time since i agree with kathy here it took tesla some time to get going but now they have four consecutive quarters of profit mainly off their automotive business and they're about to have another one this next quarter and elon literally said that their biggest advantage long term will be manufacturing meaning that tesla finds ways within their manufacturing lines to make their cars cheaper to produce every single time while at the same time still having the coolest cars on the market so what this does is it now allows tesla to take that knowledge and apply it to the next gigafactory and then the next and then the next and then the next and it just keeps on going and this is something that daimler audi and mercedes just aren't doing and that's why you'll see companies like ford and gm go out of business in the next five to ten years because they don't have engineers that can do what tesla does and the pandemic really just messed their financials up as well so i think they've gotten the manufacture kathy when you take tyler's question to the next level is it do you dig in and get granular on the opportunities when you look at the some of the parts is it going to be panels autonomous drive or batteries that are the new breakout because when we look to tyler's point when we look at the cars in production everyone thinks they're an expert on what they can and can't do with tesla but is there going to be shockers going forward where there's going to be a breakout valuation on batteries because their technology is so far advanced yeah i think they acquired a company called maxwell technologies and they've been very secretive about what that is going to do for their battery technology so what i just said to you does not even incorporate maxwell so yes we do think there are surprises on the battery front they have their own ai chip for autonomous the only auto manufacturer to have one and james wang who worked at our analyst who worked at nvidia for eight nine years uh took a look at those specs and said four years ahead of anything that nvidia is going to be able to produce can because a single purpose is not general purpose what a coincidence just this morning i was actually watching tesla's autonomy day video three hours long by the way and i was taking notes because i wanted to know more about the hardware and the software needed for these chips call me a nerd i don't care but that's exactly what elon said during the conference not only that they're a couple years ahead with the chips but theirs are used specifically for autonomous driving whereas nvidia's are used for general purpose because they have so many other customers and what this does is it allows tesla's hardware and software to work better together than nvidia and someone else's because that's exactly what they're meant to do they're meant to pair together they're about to work together perfectly compared to someone else's that's why tesla will win autonomy because the next best chip maker is nvidia whose chips can only do 21 tera ops while at the same time teslas are doing 144 teraps that's a pretty big difference in performance when it comes to the next best option which is a seven times difference uh so we think they're going to be way ahead of the game on autonomous and that's where the real surprises are going to be because autonomous is a recurring revenue very high margin almost software as a service like opportunity autonomous taxi networks and what what you have baked in the cake from the street primarily are low margin gross margins uh more like auto you know in the 25 30 range we actually think gross margins because of their battery technology could head for 40 on the ev itself and then the incremental revenues from autonomous would be in the 80 plus range and we think that's what people are missing and in our seven thousand dollar target so the scenario testing we assume only a 25 chance that they're going to be up and running uh with autonomous within two to three years karen jump in yeah so kudos to you i mean you had what i thought was an outlandish uh target two years ago or one and a half years ago and here we are and so you have another one maybe outlandish maybe spot on but let me ask you when you get to this 7 000 to pick your more moderate case what's it trading at as a multiple of earnings or as a what will that what will that valuation then be so in five years again we we don't really operate like that we're just trying to figure out the cash flows and the do and then discount them but one of the things that i'd like to focus on is the reason this is such a is going to be such a big upside surprise is because tesla is riding the convergence of three major innovation platforms convergence it's very hard to analyze this in the traditional world right auto analysts are not robotics experts they are not artificial intelligence experts or battery experts uh we have three analysts working on this model together all of them are characterized by exponential growth during the night we are ready for prime time the so the seeds for what we're about to witness now not just with tesla but with genomics with 3d printing with everything we do the seeds were sown during the tekken telecom bubble the costs back then were way too high to play out for for those those platforms to play out the costs have been coming down for 20 years we're ready for prime time these are three exponential growth trends that are converging and that is why this is so difficult for traditional analysts to value this is all we do we do nothing but disruptive innovation because we have never seen as much disruptive innovation evolving at the same time ever you have to go back to telephone electricity internal combustion engine very bold word choice from kathy but the thing is she's absolutely right here although i wasn't alive when the first telephone was made or the ice vehicle was introduced you weren't either so you can't really say she's wrong here but that wraps up this video if you made it this far you're actually a real one but don't forget to hit that like and subscribe button if you haven't already but with that being said i'll see you guys in the next one peace
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