저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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Fed 금리 인하 반대, 금융버블과 통화팽창의 한계 주장. 실물경제 악화 속 귀금속 상승 전망, 플래티넘 선호, 중국·인도 금 매집, 세계 전쟁 사이클 우려. 채권은 인플레로 강세 어렵다고 봄.
다듬은 글
The Fed can control short-term rates. They have no control about long-term rates. I mean to some extent they have some control because if I say put down short-term rates into minus territory then people will prefer longdated securities. So it may lead to a rally but it would be so inflationary that it's unlikely that treasuries would rally.
You understand it's a complex situation and I've written extensively about it. I actually own some treasuries not with great enthusiasm but I happen to believe that the economy in the US if we phase out the economy of the super rich you know like the people who attend this conference most of them are relatively affluent the ordinary people they are most of them are suffering say 70% of people in the western world are not doing well economically speaking their standards of living are going down because the cost of living is going up at a more rapid rate than the salaries.
And for the first time in my life, I had something good to say about the Fed because I think they shouldn't cut rates on the contrary. In my view, they should rather increase rates because I think we live in a world where we have a financial economy which is gigantic bubble in every sector because the monetary expansion has lifted you know property prices to levels where they become unaffordable for ordinary people.
It has lifted stocks. When I started to work in 1970, you could buy the Dow Jones. I mean the stock market capitalization was 25% of the economy. Now it's 150% of the economy. So there has been a financialization of the system and that sector is in a gigantic bubble in my opinion. Now somebody may come and say Mark you're wrong.
The bubble will become much bigger. Yes possible you can blow it up more by printing money. But the thing is this in more recent times when they printed money the price of precious metals has actually gone up more than the prices of financial assets. So my view would be that we are at the limit of money printing.
You can print more but it doesn't help the real economy. It actually has a negative impact on the real economy because the price level goes up more than the real economic activity and more than salaries. And so the standards of living keep on going down instead of going up. And this is all described in a great book the economics of inflation by bristiano tone.
And I think the central bankers actually they maneuvered themselves into such a mass such dirt they can't get out of the mud because they must print money. If they stop printing money the system collapses if I look at central bankers today and if I look at the monetary system and the debts that are accumulating and there's no stoppage to the debt growth.
My sense is that maybe people who don't own gold will think back at this current period and say how stupid was I that I didn't buy some gold because by that time gold maybe I don't know 10 20 30 $100,000 who knows but my view would be that the trend would be upwards now it could be that for a few years gold doesn't move that much and I personally actually right now I have a preference to buy platinum.
There are times when the jewelry industry prefers platinum than gold and the platinum price is usually below the gold price. But from time to time it exceeds the gold price. And my sense is that it will exceed the gold price before the bull market in actually I'm not sure the bull market in precious metals will stop anytime soon because if you look at the central bankers and the governments they report to I mean you have to wonder about the sanity of the financial system because most of the central bankers are completely useless characters.
They have no idea about financial history. They have no clue about monetary policies and yet they are central bankers. So when I look at the conditions, I think that actually the conditions for precious metals nowadays are more favorable than they've been in a long time. In addition to which, you know, I sort of like history and I like cycles.
So there are economic cycles and monetary cycles and all sorts of cycles and agricultural cycles and then there are war cycles and the war cycles theory would point out that the conditions today are extremely favorable for another world war. Well, I think that many countries that have become economically important, they are reluctant to hold all their reserves in US dollars and in the US because they've seen that some countries where their assets were frozen and so the appetite to hold the reserves in a currency where they could expropriate you and freeze you is not very high.
So I think that countries like China and India and many others they will accumulate gold. What surprised me is the stupidity of western central bankers who sold their gold when it was very low in the 1990s and then they didn't accumulate. You said the Chinese don't know exactly how much gold they have.
But do you know exactly how much gold the US has? They don't know themselves. It's never been ordered. Whether the gold is there or not, there's no way out. But I want to tell you a story. I started to work in 1970 on Wall Street. And by 73, they sent me to Hong Kong to develop their Asian business.
I befriended the strategies of Mary Lynch, Charlie Mter, and Stan Salvix and Mike Aaronstein. And they were already then saying that the debt growth would lead to a catastrophe by the end of the 1980s. You understand? If something surprised me in my life is that the Dow Jones is where it is, the S&P is where it is and that we had negative interest rates and so forth.
So that the financial system survived for so long has surprised me and maybe it can last for much longer. But in this condition of lasting much longer with these excesses that we have, I prefer to have a significant portion of my assets in precious metals. If you look at the world in 1970, China consumed 2% of all industrial commodities.
Now it's more like 50%, in some cases more than 50%. I mean you have this shift in the balance of economic power from the western world say after second world war there's no question that America was the dominant power nowadays are they the dominant power in industrial production no more China produces more cement and steel than all the other world combined this is a huge thing and India's production and software and so forth these countries have become big and They don't accept anymore the neoc colonialism that existed after the second world war.
I mean after the second world war the colonial system broke down but we had neoc colonialism. The French dominated west Africa the British East Africa and so forth and that is over. If I were 40 years old or 30 years old, I would travel around the sovereign funds of the world, mostly in the Middle East and so forth, and your rich people and tell them, "Look, let's squeeze the platinum market because the silver market is much larger than the platinum market.
The gold market is much larger than the platinum market. If you get Russia and South Africa on your side and you get them to reduce production of platinum and you get a few say 10 or 20 wealthy people, you can squeeze the price up meaningfully. That's what I would do. In the capitalistic economy, you must have companies that fail and you must have companies that innovate and succeed.
So to your question, how will the world look like in a year's time? I don't know. But my sense is that under any circumstance, an investment in precious metals is a prudent, let's say, strategy. I'm not saying it will necessarily go up dramatically, but the likelihood that it will go up is quite favorable.
And I tell you why. You know, if I look around, you seldom see young people with any interest in gold. They are in cryptos and whatever coins there are, but the interest in precious metals is limited. And you can see it if you look at shares outstanding of ETFs, they're all down. And I mean, I go sell them to parties, but when it comes to the subject of gold, they all shut up.
You know why? Because they don't have any. They had gold, you know, inherited from the grandmother or their parents or whatever. And for years the price didn't move. And when finally the price moved up, they sold. This is the reality. And the children of these people, they're all into bitcoins and so forth.
They're not interested in gold. On the contrary, I think some of them are short.
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