저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 혁신 플랫폼 기반 장기 성장 전략을 고수하며, 하락장에서 투자자가 매도하는 것이 가장 큰 실수라고 강조한다. 방어주 전략: 애플·구글·페이스북 등 FANG 종목은 현금 대용 방어주로 활용했으며, 시장 조정 시 비중을 늘리고 상승장에서 줄이는 방식으로 운용한다고 설명. 포트폴리오는 150% 상승했다고 언급. 가치·경기민감 전략: ARKX에는 가치주 성격의 기업이 많으며, 위성 기술로 정밀농업(자율 트랙터·드론)과 글로벌 브로드밴드 확대가 핵심 수혜라고 주장. 극초음속 항공 관련 기업에도 관심 표명. 애널리스트 팀: 비판에 대해 젊은 애널리스트들의 신기술 도메인 전문성이 경쟁우위라고 주장하며, 리서치를 소셜미디어로 공개해 혁신가와 소통한다고 설명. 전망: 다섯 가지 혁신 플랫폼이 동시에 성장하며 지수적 성장이 예상되어 투자 경력상 가장 놀라운 시기가 될 것이라고 전망. 구체적 가격 목표나 기간은 제시되지 않음. 리스크 및 고객 행동: 코로나 위기 이후 급격한 조정을 예상하고 있으며, 3월 환매액은 5억 달러였으나 4~5월에는 플러스 자금 유입이 있었다고 설명. 고객이 바닥에서 매도하는 것이 가장 큰 고통이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
and we're freezing up a little bit let's see if we can get kathy back all right that's okay
innovation is happening but not always when it comes to the virtual conversation go ahead you're talking about apple so apple was one of our cash-like instruments. It's an innovative company, and it's in the innovation zone, but its characteristics are very defensive. So we will add names like Apple, the FANGs—Apple, Google, Facebook—we will add those, or even reintroduce those stocks. As a bull market, our portfolios were up 150 percent. We knew there was going to be a correction, and we just wanted to have very liquid stocks. Apple is a great company, and it's going to do fine. It's a FANG, and it's in a lot of portfolios. We are all about the next FANGs, but we will use the existing FANGs. If you see them acting very defensively, they become a defensive group, so we will fold them in, increase them when we see a move like we saw last year, and when we see a decline like the one we're seeing now. We're seeing much higher returns from the other stocks in our portfolio.
You were talking about value and cyclical, and I'm curious: are there any value and cyclical strategies right now that you've identified as ones you want to pursue?
Well, in our space strategy, ARKX, you'll find a lot of value-oriented stocks. Many people are surprised to see Deere, for example, in there. What they don't understand is that, thanks to satellite technology, the increase in the number of satellites out there, and the precision we're getting from them, we are now enabling precision agriculture with autonomous tractors and drones. Without that constellation out there, that would not be happening. We think the two biggest applications, or beneficiaries of the space race, are satellites enabling mobile connectivity, or connectivity around the world—broadband connectivity. It is really hard for us to imagine that three billion people in the world have no access to the internet or broadband. This is going to enable that, along with satellites and farming. The other thing we think is going to happen much sooner than space tourism, and will be a much bigger deal in terms of revenue generation, is hypersonic flight. So any aerospace company focused on hypersonic flight, we're interested in, and they tend to be value stocks.
You mentioned earlier there have been people who have been very vocal and public fans of you, and then some have become your critics, or criticize you for having a younger investment group of analysts, your analyst team. What do you say to them?
I would say that's our secret weapon. Those analysts have their education and their feet in the new world. The most seasoned health care analysts on Wall Street, and God bless them, have been great at what they do—they know all the code words and how to decipher them from the FDA. But they probably haven't experimented with CRISPR gene editing like our genomic analysts have, and they don't have advanced degrees in cognitive computing, including bringing behavioral science into it. So many of our analysts are coming to us directly from college, and they are fully equipped with domain expertise in a way that most analysts out there—again, very seasoned—are not, just because they didn't go to school and haven't been exposed to these new technologies. Now, I know there are a lot of PhDs out there, and they of course know a lot, but I would put any of our analysts up against the most seasoned analysts on the street when it comes to the topic of innovation and new technologies. That's our focus, so why wouldn't we? I think we have a competitive advantage for a few reasons. Number one, our analysts' domain expertise. Number two, their willingness to engage with the communities out there through social media and give our research away—not when it's finished, but as it's evolving—so they can communicate and engage with the innovators themselves. I think we have a competitive dynamic unmatched in the industry.
Hey, just to wrap up, Kathy. You and I have been talking for a lot of years, and this has been an unusual year in some regards. For you, what have you learned in the past year, and what does maybe "change" mean to you?
Well, as we were having such an incredible year last year—and I do think the coronavirus crisis caused it—innovation solves problems. I kept saying to everyone, in the company, we must stay humble. We must stay humble, and we know this is going to come to an end. We're going to go through a severe correction, and we have to just keep our heads down, focused on our research, to keep our conviction and drive our strategies forward. That's what's happened: keeping our heads down, hopefully staying humble, and really trying to educate people about the great opportunities available out there and getting on the right side of change. This is going to be the most amazing period of my investment career, and I've been through 40-plus years, because we've never seen five innovation platforms evolve at the same time, all of them leading to exponential growth trajectories that are going to transform people's lives. So I say just read our research, talk to our analysts on Twitter if you really want to learn more, and join the rally, because we believe it's going to be magnificent.
Just quickly from the audience: do you ever get recognized in public like a celebrity? Some people liken you to Warren Buffett. Do you ever miss your pre-rock-star days?
Just quickly, um, the answer is yes, too much, to my surprise, even on an island off New Zealand, which is what... But no, we are honored and delighted. And I know it's been hard for our clients in recent months. Keep the faith. Many people's lives have been changed by what happened last year. They allocated resources toward our strategies and toward bitcoin, and they had a magnificent run. So it's gratitude that we feel now, and of course we're feeling very responsible this year. That's why it's so important for us to say that what pains me more than anything as a portfolio manager is when I know our clients are selling at the bottom. Usually people sell in the big capitulation I described earlier, with bitcoin, selling at the bottom. You make a terrible mistake, and you don't want to ever get in again, and it just pains me. So I'm just praying that we don't have a lot of that. We've had a lot of retention.
Just to correct one thing you said at the beginning: actually, as a firm, we've not had one month of redemptions. The ETF platform had, if you go month-end to month-end, which is how we measure this sort of thing. Our retentions in March were $500 million. We've had positive flows in April and May. It remains to be seen. It's been nip and tuck, and it may end up being small, depending on what happens in these last few weeks. But if there's real capitulation, sure, we could have a big outflow, but I think that's capitulation.
All right, we're going to leave it there. Kathy, thank you so much. I know it's a crazy day, and you always find time. Thank you.
Thank you. Always. New always.
Okay, you've of course been listening to Kathy Wood, ARK Investment Management CEO. Timing is everything. Alex, a conversation there with Carol Massa.
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