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결론: 옵션 거래 급증이 1929년식 투기 과열 신호일 수 있으며, 마이클 버리의 경고를 인용하지만 영상은 예측을 명확히 제시하지 않음. 주제 1: 옵션 거래 폭증 2021년 옵션 거래 규모가 1973년 시장 개설 이후 최고 수준이라고 소개함. 2021년 거래일 중 상위 10개 중 9개가 발생했다고 언급함. 하루 평균 약 3,900만 옵션 계약이 거래되어 2020년 대비 31% 증가했다고 함. 주제 2: 버리의 경고와 1929년 비유 버리가 1929년 증시 과열 당시 마진 투기 기록을 인용했다고 설명함. 진행자는 이를 현재의 옵션 투기 열풍과 비교함. 주제 3: 개인 투자자와 기관의 옵션 투기 로빈후드 옵션 사례(600달러 콜옵션으로 약 60% 수익)를 들어 신규 투자자의 빠른 수익 추구를 설명함. 헤지펀드도 점점 위험한 콜·풋 옵션을 활용한다고 언급함. 주제 4: 옵션 거래대금이 주식을 앞섬 2021년 단일 종목 옵션의 일평균 명목가치가 4,320억 달러로 주식 거래대금 4,040억 달러를 넘었다고 함. 애플 옵션 일평균 명목가치는 200억 달러 이상으로 주식 대비 크다고 함. 주제 5: 시장 변동성과 리스크 옵션 만기일 헤징이 시장 불안정성을 키울 수 있다고 봄. 옵션 활동이 시장을 취약하게 만들어 더 큰 등락을 낳을 수 있다고 봄. 주제 6: 진행자 투자 철학 옵션 투기는 제로섬에 가깝다고 평가함. 기업을 이해하고 적정 가치에 장기 보유하는 방식이 더 건전하다고 주장함. 에치시(Etsy) 사례에서 옵션 트레이더 매도 시 저가 매수했다고 언급함. 주제 7: 가격 방향 예측 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 명시되지 않음. 시장 붕괴 가능성은 우려 수준으로만 언급함.
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options trading is fueling a stock market bubble do you guys believe in this people are saying that this might be worse than the tech crash because people are just crazy about options right now in 2020 and 2021 this has been like the highest amount of options trading what is going on in the market right now is the market crash potential there because of options trading or is this just a sign that the market goes through its ups and downs hello everyone welcome to just invest today and today we have to talk about michael berryman is he predicting another market crash just because of the options trading frenzy going on man and he's just comparing this look what he just wrote man he's comparing this back into the olden days and what he's seeing in the market because we have to realize that options trading is driving all these highs and all these lows and i predict it's going to get even worse and worse and worse because betting is at the all time high sports betting option betting just everything containing to bedding is just on a high so here's what michael bury said about what's going on in the market this is a quote from back in the day it has been evident for the last six months that this country has been on the orgy of margin speculation it has it was indulged by all elevator boys typewriter girls taxi drivers and even school children and this was a quote from 1929 so he's not quoting this just for some random reason this is what he's seen this is what's been written in different articles wall street journal man the new york times that options is exploding so let's get down let's read some of this article and see if we can compare it to like the tech crash or any type of crashes back in the day individuals brace the options trading turbo charging to stock markets short-term traders flock to the low upfront cost of potential quick gains in option markets feeling bigger swings and many rallies so i want to know what's your opinion on this do you see this happening i feel like honestly like what's going on around you is everyone talking about options trading in stock markets like if that's what's happening and you see it happening like this could be the potential because when that happens usually at parties people are talking about stocks and options and trading and quick profits that's like one of the telltale signs that a crash could potentially happen so let's get into this article the shares of robin hood market had mostly disappointed the trading apps fans since their initial public offering but harsh patel felt sure that that was about to change mr patrol 27 year old nurse in columbus ohio figured its price would rise after he saw a chatter about robin hood light up a stock market chat board so on august 4th he paid 600 for a call option contract that confirms the rate through no not the obligation to purchase 100 shares at a state price by a certain date and this is what new wave is you guys go on boards figure out what's the hardest stock and then you buy into them using call options because a lot of people don't have a lot of money and using call options and using leverage is a way to just hit those huge gains so this guy hit it out the market he had like a 50 increase he got a uh the call options to 70 dollars had huge he made around 950 dollars 60 gain and this is like a newcomer and a lot of people are seeing these quick gains in the market and thinking like this is normal so this is what you're seeing in the market right now you're seeing a lot of people getting into the market using call options becoming a little bit successful and then this is the new wave bringing the markets to new highs but this is the thing it brings markets to crazy highs but then you're seeing right now crazy lows and the start market selling off which is that has the potential when there's so many people using options the episode shows the surging options trading has transformed the markets bets on firms ranging from tech giants apple amazon tesla have accelerated a roaring recovery from last year's virus-induced market crash while adding to the concerns of the some analysts making activity can lead the market vulnerable to greater swings and that's what we're seeing man we're gonna have to think and we have to understand that the market is gonna go through greater swings now that's probably the new norm it's not going to be like a steady increase man you can probably see huge increases and huge declines now because there's so much option activity and that's having a huge effect on the market professional investors have a long track option markets for clues on stock markets next turn now favored by individual investors for small upfront investments and potential for quick payoffs options trading is hitting levels never seen before so man we have to adjust to the new normal because i don't know do you think options is gonna settle down like do you think this is gonna be the new norm or it's gonna go back in reverse because they're saying this is the new high and has never seen this before since 1973 nine of the ten of the most active call options trading days in history have taken place in 2021.
man almost 39 million option contracts have changed hands on the average day this year up 31 from 2020 the highest level since the market's inception in 1973 and i'm pretty sure in 1973 74 the market had a huge dip like a 30-40 dip so this is what people are seeing and like experiencing in the market that people are just talking about options call options put options and the thing is too this is not just individual investors hedge funds are getting into the action using riskier and riskier option calls and put options and this is what's going to happen because remember wall street is just feeding off what the individuals investors are doing and they're getting ahead of what they're doing to make these huge profits so people are going to be able to take more chance there's more potential for upside but then there's a huge potential for the downsides as more people get hooked and embrace the risky options by one measure options activity is on track to surpass activity in the stock market for the first time ever in 2021 the daily average notional value of a traded single stock options has exceeded 432 billion compared to 404 billion of stocks according to calculations the value of options changing has surpassed the stocks according back to date 2008 on average apple options was a notional value of more than 20 billion have changed hands daily this year compared to roughly 12 billion of the iphone maker stock so options are exceeding stocks man and like this is gonna be i think this might be a trend going forward man but honestly you have to be able to just buy individual stocks because you're gonna be able to just kind of ignore the market and just hold on for a longer period of time because honestly i think gambling and options and put options all that option stuff it's like a zero-sum game you're gonna lose some you're gonna make some but i think at the averages like that's gonna cancel each other out playing that game but understanding the business buying on a like a sure valuation i think that's the fundamentally sound way to making money in the market because are you really gonna be able to bet with all these call options and put options i think some people can do it especially if you're doing it very smartly and if you actually enjoy and love the company i think you can do it successfully but the average person like i don't know man because we're seeing gamestop amc like on the averages i think gme amc it was a zero-sum game in that i feel like a lot of people made money and think about all the people that lost money i think if we balance those two equations out i think it's probably even on both sides of the market on both sides of the wheel tell me what you think about that i don't know maybe i'm just guessing who knows the activity can be exacerbated by downturns through much of the past year the stock market has recorded a steady climb higher the heavy training has made early days when options expire focus point for many investors saying hedge hedging activity around the contracts can feel greater instability in the stock market and that is so true matt everyone is talking about quarterly results man and that's like the bread and butter for a lot of options trader is the quarterly results and seeing if they can gauge all of that and when i think about that that's providing us long-term shareholders with huge benefits because i remember thinking about etsy and i see you had like a bad not a bad quarter but a quarter that it didn't do as well and i bought in at a perfect time when all the options traders lost options i had like a 15 decline and i just boom i just bought shares with that decline because i understood what was happening and i understood the strategy people are using they're not long-term shareholders they're just trying to make a quick profit so we have to understand what they're doing and how we can use that as an advantage for our personal um value investing strategy so tell me what you think about all this options trading is this providing a potential crash happening in the future berry thinks that michael bury thinks that all this trading all this activity is going back to the days when everyone was talking about stocks everyone was talking about options everyone in the market thought they could make money the the doorman the freaking taxi driver the uber driver is just like it's just reiterating itself back in today's market so tell me what you think about michael bury's comments and how he quoted that guy saying options trading is just getting out of hand now what do you think personally i want to know are you a big options trader do you see all these stocks going incredibly higher the sell-off of market crash tell me what you think man like share this video subscribe to my channel and get back to you in the next video peace
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