원문 보기
warren buffett is seeing substantial inflation let's have a look hello everyone florian heiser here and welcome to another episode of heiser says grab your shine of coffee because we're going to have a look at a recent well a portion of the berkshire hathaway investor meeting the annual meeting and we'll have a look at warren buffett's comments on seeing substantial inflation now before we jump to that let's just have a look at the moment right now the us has a 2.6 inflation so it's climbing back up and i know there's some people that aren't fans of the the cpi and would argue for other methods politically this is what's going to be used to make to make decisions so we have to understand that now we're starting to see inflation in a lot of things crude oil is creeping up you've got wheat skyrocketing look at that 742 dollars now these were all snippets i captured from trading economics just a few moments before i recorded this soybeans are up lumber is up it's record highs everyone yeah the meme the joke of someone driving past a billionaire or a millionaire and they've got a trailer full of timber here we have iron ore it's at 187 very high something that a lot of australians are quite happy with steel as well it's going right up and well so inflation definitely is present now the question is is this transitory is this just temporary inflation or long term is this going to be the beginning of hyperinflation that some people are worried about and do you trust the federal reserve do you trust jerome powell i asked that question in a video on my heiser says us channel have a look at that but now let's jump to this portion from the interview for the presentation this question from chris freed from philadelphia and whoever wants to take this on stage from raw material purchases by berkshire subsidiaries are you seeing signs of inflation beginning to increase let me answer that greg can get more we're seeing very substantial inflation it's very interesting i mean we're raising prices people are raising prices to us and it's being accepted i mean it's not uh if we get well you know take home building i mean you know the cost of we've got nine home builders and in addition to our manufactured housing and then uh operation which is the largest in the country so we really do a lot of housing the costs are just up up steel costs uh you know just every day uh they're they're going up and that it they're there hasn't yet been because the weights the wage stuff follows i mean at the the uaw writes a three-year contract we got a three-year contract but if you're buying steel at general motors uh or someplace you're paying more every day so it's it's an economy really uh it's red hot i mean and we weren't expecting it i mean all our companies when they they thought when when they were allowed to go back to work you know what that uh our various operations they would we closed the furniture stores i mentioned you know if they were closed from six weeks or so on average and they didn't know what was going to happen when they when they opened you know so is this a supply side issue that they haven't prepared or anticipated this huge demand coming back and that's what we're seeing here they can't stop people from buying things and we can't deliver them and they say well that's okay nobody else can deliver them either and we'll wait for three months or something to start but the backlog grows and then we thought it would end when the 600 payments ended and i think you know around august of last year it just kept going and it keeps going and it keeps going and it keeps going and i get the figures every week i call her bump calls me and we go over day by day what happened at three different stores in chicago and kansas city and dallas and and it just won't stop uh people have money in their pocket and and they pay the higher prices and and when carpet prices go up in a month or two you know we announced the price increase for april our costs are going up supply chains all screwed up so is this one of the reasons perhaps people are anticipating or we're seeing announcements of price increases we're seeing a shrink flation being discussed in the retail sector as well uh we even looked at mattel where they've anticipated price increases just for the suppliers there a lot of businesses are talking about this is that could this be one reason why people are diving into the market diving into a real asset into property because they're worried that their purchasing power of their money is going to be eroded but then you know why aren't we seeing that in the traditional safe havens for um inflation which is gold and silver you know for all kinds of people but it's a bike it's almost a buying frenzy except certain areas you can't buy it you know everybody can't buy international air travel and there's so the money is being diverted from a little some a piece of the economy into the rest and everybody's got more cash in their pocket than except for meanwhile you know it's a terrible situation for a percentage of the people the you know this suit i haven't worn a suit you know for a year practically and that means that the dry cleaner nurse just went out of business i mean that nobody's bringing in suits to get dry cleaned and nobody's nobody's bringing in white shirts uh the at a place where my wife goes the small business person if he didn't have takeout and delivery services for restaurants you got killed that's a really good point i mean it it's the small businesses that seem to be hitting it and uh well i'm this i used to wear a suit every day guys a suit and pocket square every day when i went to business when i went networking and i'll pay for for dry cleaning exactly and since i've moved home well you kind of can see what i'm wearing guys the wine shirts on the other hand if you've got takeout facilities done you know same source tales of dairy cleaner up a whole lot and they adapted them but it's it it is not a price sensitive economy right now in the least and uh i don't know exactly how when it shows up in different price indices but there's there's more inflation going on than quite a bit more inflation going on than people would have anticipated just six months ago or thereabouts yeah there's one very intelligent man who thinks it's dangerous and that's just the start right you probably are in a good position yeah well when i think you touched on it when we look at steel prices timber prices any petroleum input you know fundamentally there's pressure on those uh raw materials i do think something you've touched on one and it it goes really back to the raw materials there's a scarcity of product right now of certain raw materials it's impacting price and the ability to deliver the end product but you know that scarcity factor is is also real out there right now as as our businesses address that challenge and it may be the some of that's contributed or arisen from the storm we previously discussed in texas when you take down that many petrochemical plants in one state that the rest of country is very dependent upon it we're seeing it flow through both on price but overall in scarcity of product which obviously go together but there's there's challenges that's for sure so there we have it everyone warren buffett is seeing well substantial inflation manifesting in all the different goods that we've talked about they're flowing through and they're increasing the prices but people are still buying people are still buying so that's the thing what's what's the lesson or what's the takeaway here i mean the solutions to it how do you position yourself traditionally people would you know people dr i think in australia it's property where people will dive into i think australia is a property is aussie gold uh because the average punter i can't see going to a precious metal shop and buying a hunk of gold or a hunk of silver it's just not part of our culture anymore it's been so long you know maybe in the 30s there was still a culture associated with that does that even exist now i mean look at here look at gold we've got talk of inflation cpi is going up our goods are going up property is going up gold has barely budged bitcoin it's rocking to the moon are you raising your prices in your business everyone how are you able to to absorb this cost have you noticed it yet in your day-to-day with a lot of viewers in the construction sector it would be quite interesting i know in architecture i feel like i haven't been able to raise prices since the gfc it's been you know just it's it's a pretty suppressed level what do you reckon we'll have to see what happens here and how have you positioned yourself do you think this is transitional transitory are we going to see this inflation dissipate once supply uh issues resolve i mean because you've got all the shipping issues you've had businesses who've just didn't expect this this uptick in demand here in australia we had the bush fires and we've had the droughts all of these things are impacting supply of goods and services do you think that because remember prices are just signals in the market do you think they'll flow through and prices will reduce back down or is this the beginning of rampant hyperinflation and then why isn't gold or silver responding to that the traditional traditional safe havens if the if the market expects it to just be transitory will it just be transitory so let me know your thoughts on that one in the comments down below thank you all for watching please like share and subscribe to the channel if you're a fan and enjoy the content i create here there are a few ways you can support us you can join us on youtube or patreon you can sign up for self wealth or stake for the share trading use our affiliate links from amazon ebay independent reserve aussie broadband you can buy our merch pocket squares that i used to wear all the time i really should get the suit out again or good old gold pass from the perth mint or via paypal take care everyone have a great day i'll see you in the next episode you
댓글 0