저자: CinaDean · 외국인
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결론: 연말 변동성 확대는 크리스마스 거래 공백과 양적긴축 영향이 크며, 경기침체 우려는 과장돼 있어 미국 경제는 1.5~2% 성장 추세를 유지할 가능성이 크다. 미국 경제·채권 시장: 연말 장세는 휴장 및 유동성 축소로 증폭됐고, 단기적으로는 크리스마스 장 성격이 강하다는 진단이다. 시장이 내년 연준 금리인하 기대를 과도하게 반영하고 있으며, 미국 데이터는 여전히 양호하다고 본다. 경기 전망: 재정 부양 효과는 내년에 약해지지만 성장률은 추세 수준(1.5~2%)으로 둔화하는 정도로 보고, 침체 가능성 반영은 과도하다는 입장이다. 암호화폐·주식 전략: 크립토와 주식 모두 약세장 추세가 전환되지 않았으므로 약세장 초입 매수는 위험하다고 경고한다. 반등이 나와도 추세 전환 확인 전까지는 신중해야 하며, 매수 시 일시에 진입하기보다 6개월~1년에 걸쳐 분할 적립(달러 코스트 애버리징)을 권한다.
다듬은 글
well that's a good question and your guess is probably as good as mine but the last few days we have seen an incredible amount of volatility I hesitate to read too much from Christmas markets I think the fact that a lot of people are off their desks is probably exacerbating the moves but the medium-term trend involved this year has suddenly been a slightly higher volatility regime which is to be expected right you're having the end of quantitative easing and actually the u.s.
is tightening liquidity conditions and that's an exacerbation moves in the market that's it I think in the very short term it's very much Christmas markets ok kid is it Christmas Warren so we have a brilliant story right which I love the headline of it so basically says completely bizarre stock moves leave traders scratching heads I scratch my head quite a lot in his life well the markets drunk all right let's be let's be clear about it in fact if if we looked at markets and said the market has been I don't know lacking volatility sort of teetotal for so long we Connery we've we've repressed the volatility with this quantitative easing on excess of money and we saw the volatility stayed down even as we got there's this big upsurge in geopolitical risk of trade wars the barracks said Julie Jean the Italian politics Merkel leave even the whole the whole lot coming through now finally at the end of the year I think we're just we're just getting sort of come back from all of that that the bond markets on the move and it's unlocked everything but is there not a catalyst I mean are they looking at politics of the shutdown is it J power and the fight with President Trump I think it's everything that comes through you know we've got an enormous amount all of it going on we've got a lot of people position one way around this is the first big correction since ETF took over the world if you like in terms of how equity markets trade and I think that's where we know we sold off more than bears thought we would sell off and now we're just going slightly crazy trying to find a settling point and remember we're all talking about slow down cutting back expectations of how much the Fed is going to go next year the data is fine in America meanwhile so this is kind of the point you know are we miss judging the the probability of recession in the u.s.
it kind of it seems that it may have gone you know to negative and are we now to negative or are we still to positive about the US economy I agree with you 100 percent I think markets have just shifted too much to the extreme when you look at US data there's nothing really particularly alarming there yes we knew that the fiscal trust would fade into next year but we're talking about growth going from well above trends to perhaps going back to trend growth so we still think US economy will be growing at about trend so that's close at one and a half two percent next year sorry recession but I think markets are becoming a little bit markets have tilted too much to expecting a very negative growth outlook which isn't warranted what's your best bet for so I would recommend to my audience be careful in both markets stock market and crypto just because as you can see the crypto market we've had rebounds but this bear market trend has not been reversed and the same thing with the stock market and so when you're in a bear market it's just very very dangerous to buy in the beginning of a bear market right and I think the best thing you can do is just continue to watch the market compute you to educate yourself and just wait for a reversal trend and we haven't seen that in the crypto or the stock market so they could be right where it was over exaggerated for the US and we could see a rally but for now we're in a parent market for both asset classes and I would preach caution and don't worry you know you'll you'll be able to get in at a good price whether it's now or after there's actually been some growth but just be careful with your buys and I highly recommend if you are gonna buy dollar-cost average and spread that average over six months to a year so that way timing is not as important but let me know your thoughts on this and I will talk to you soon
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