저자: HunterFox · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 베리의 폭락 경고를 반박하는 영상. 베리는 과거 주택시장 붕괴를 맞혔지만 2015년 이후 여러 차례 경고가 빗나갔고, 시장 타이밍은 불가능하다고 주장. S&P500 장기 적립식 투자 지속, 현재 밸류에이션(예상 P/E 약 20대 초반)은 이익 성장률 대비 저렴하다고 봄. 스티브 아이즈먼의 구글 매도와 AI 집중 리스크 발언도 소개되며, 베리의 공매도 조언은 일부 수긍. 본인은 GE Vernova, Celestica 추가 매수 계획과 버크셔의 구글 지분 확대를 언급.
다듬은 글
In October 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 23% in a single day—the biggest stock market crash in history . Michael Bury believes history is about to repeat itself, and this time things could be even worse. He currently has huge short positions against some of the world's largest companies.
But since the beginning of this year, the market has risen by over 13%, and we have just reached an all-time high. Today I'll break down why I think Bury is wrong again and why you should ignore his warning. Let's get down to business. For those who don't know, Michael Bury became famous in 2008 when he accurately predicted the housing market crash.
It was one of the loudest and most accurate predictions in the history of the market, and a movie called "The Downside Game" was even made about it. If you haven't seen this movie, I highly recommend watching it. It has an incredible cast and does a great job of explaining what really happened. Here's a short clip with Christian Bale as Michael Bury.
The housing market is held up by these bad loans. This is a time bomb and I want to play for the downside. Through what tool, Michael? There are no insurance contracts or options on mortgage bonds. These bonds are too stable. Lawrence. Bury's hedge fund, Scion Capital, made between $700 million and $800 million on the deal.
Over the entire existence of Scion Capital, it has provided a return of 490%. Bury is a doctor-turned- investor, and he is undoubtedly a genius. He deserves respect for his outstanding results, but he is not omniscient. In fact, if you had followed his advice for the past 11 years, the result would have been terrible.
Let's take a look at some of his predictions over the past decade. In December 2015, he predicted a market crash. The S&P 500 finished the year up 12% with minimal volatility, aside from oil's decline in January and February. In May 2017, he declared that a global financial crisis was inevitable. That year, the market grew steadily and achieved a profitability of 22%.
At the end of 2019, he argued that there was an index ETF bubble. Since then, index funds like IVV and SPY have risen about 160%. In the midst of the 2020 pandemic, he revealed his large bearish positions. If he had gotten out of them quickly, he would probably have made a good living. And that's important to remember if you're following Bury.
He is truly a genius, but he is also a trader who usually gets in and out of positions quickly. You may think you have the same deal as him, but he could have backed out of it a few days after opening. Bury made very pessimistic predictions in early 2021, late 2022, and my favorite was in January 2023, when he tweeted the word " sell." Obviously , the market is much higher now than it was then, and if you sold assets, you seriously hurt your results.
Last year, Bury disclosed information about put options on Nvidia and Palantir and claimed that AI stocks are a scam due to manipulation of depreciation schedules and inflated earnings. I advise you to ignore all his market predictions, but to heed his advice on shorting stocks. Quote: “Shorting is not for everyone.
I have to wear shorts. Most people shouldn't do this ." End of quote. Regardless of whether you believe Bury or not, I can say from my own 12 years of experience in the stock market: it is more profitable to play for an increase. There is volatility in the short term, but over time the market grows.
Guessing the timing of the market is impossible even for Bury; he paid about 100 million in premiums for his bet against the housing market because he was in a hurry. Most investors don't have the stamina for such losses, so following Bury could be very dangerous. Another famous investor from the movie "The Short Game" is Steve Eisman.
I really like Steve, and when he talks, I listen. He was recently on CNBC to discuss his thoughts on AI, and I was a little shocked to hear that he had sold all of his Google stock. You wouldn't short this market at this point, would you? I wouldn't. I...I reduced the positions. I took, you know, I'll give you an example.
I…I sold my Google a couple of months ago. Um, I owned Google. I can't even tell you how long I've owned Google. With $370,000 and $221,000 in earnings, Google is one of my largest positions, and I remain bullish on this stock. In fact, I've even been buying them lately and will probably continue to do so .
Let's listen to Steve explain why he closed his position. I wanted to reduce my AI impact. I didn't buy anything to replace it because, you know, buying something protective or stable is a waste of time. Why? It is not growing. They are not growing. They, you know, people either want to buy AI or they don't , but they don't want to switch to buying Clorox.
So if this is a binary situation where the AI succeeds and the market keeps pushing higher and higher, right? What happens if AI fails? I think we are in for a big correction. How big is it? Oh, that's a difficult question. I don't know. But I mean, it's all one deal. It's literally just one. That is, even people who think they are diversified because they own 60% stocks and 40% bonds fail to notice that they are not actually diversified.
Because in their 60% of stocks, more than 50% are related to technology and AI, and among the 40% of bonds, most new issues are related to AI. So even people who think they're diversified because they own bonds are n't really that diversified. What scares me is that it's all one deal. So she better succeed.
What do you do if you sold Google? What else? So, if you sold Alphabet, what else did you do? I'm just sitting there, you know, I have cash. Until I try to figure out what to do. What needs to happen for you to put this money into action? I don't know yet. I really don't know. I agree with Steve on his comments about diversification and how AI trading drives everything, but I also think it makes no sense to diversify away from the best companies in the world just for the sake of diversification.
Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger called it hedging against ignorance, and Peter Lynch called it diversification. The main argument of the bears now is that the shares are expensive and the market leadership is too narrow. I would agree with the second point, but I don't think it's a big problem for long-term investors.
If you own a broad market and have a lot of time, in 5 years it probably won't matter whether some AI-related stocks turn out to be overvalued. If you are worried but haven't picked up speculative assets, I wouldn't try to guess the peak. I would stay invested. Where I strongly disagree with the "bears" is in the valuation.
Now, earnings growth is outpacing the expansion of multipliers. Goldman Sachs estimates S &P 500 earnings growth of about 24% this year, compared with a long-term historical average of about 4%. With earnings growing so rapidly, valuation multiples have actually declined compared to where they were at the beginning of the year.
So even with the market at an all-time high, you're paying less for every dollar of expected profit than you were a few months ago. The market is cheaper today than it was last quarter. The 5- year average forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is just under 20 earnings. Today it's a little over 20. I don't mind paying about an average multiple when earnings are growing several times faster than historical rates, especially when some of the world's biggest and best companies are trading at or even below that valuation.
There has been a lot of short-term volatility this year, and Bury may be right that there will be more to come, but I'm sure trying to time the market like he does won't end well for most investors. I will continue my dollar cost averaging strategy of investing in S&P 500 index funds and buy more shares of companies that are trading below their intrinsic value.
In my last video, I mentioned that I was planning to acquire one of these companies, and I did. I bought $10,000 worth of GE Vernova stock and plan to increase my stake in that company as well as Celestica. And finally, it was just announced that Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway bought even more Google shares.
They purchased 48 million shares, which represents an 83% increase in their stake. Google is now the third- largest position in Berkshire's portfolio. Well, that's all for now. Thanks for watching, see you next week.
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