저자: INVESTORAZA · 외국인
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same things happen over and over again and if you study the patterns of them you understand the cause effect relationships and then can write down principles for dealing with them well we dealt with them very well in that financial crisis and in other debt crisises and i wanted to pass that template along i think that there are six stages to the cycle i'm going to touch on them briefly there's the early part of the cycle where debt is being used to create productivity incomes and then it can be serviced well asset prices go up everything is great and then you come to the bubble phase of the cycle and in that bubble phase you're in a position where everybody extrapolates the past because asset goes up they think its assets are going to continue to rise and you borrow money and they leverage and when you are in that phase when we do the calculations you could start to see that maybe you won't be able to sustain that level of debt growth then you come into the third phase of the cycle which is the top that's typically the part of the cycle when central banks start to put on the brakes tighten monetary policy and and the like then you come into the down leg and when interest rates hit zero percent you come into a depression part of that cycle because monetary policy doesn't work normally when interest rates hit zero then you have to have quantitative easing and you begin that expansion and then you carry that along and you begin the cycle so i think the period that we're in is very similar to the period that we were in in the 1930s if i may absolutely explain it okay there are only two times in the history of this century where we had debt crisis in which interest rates hit zero and in both of those times the central bank had to print money and go to a different type of monetary policy which we call quantitative easing and to buy financial assets and that drives up in both of those cases the value of those financial assets and produces a recovery but it drives interest rates down to zero or near zero where they are around the world and that buying in this case 15 trillion dollars of financial assets has pushed up financial assets and driven the interest rates down to zero so it's caused asset prices to rise it's also caused populism more populism because that process creates a gap between the rich and the poor those who have more financial assets uh see those asset prices go up and for various other reasons a wealth gap has developed if you look at right now the top one tenth of one percent of the population's net worth is equal about to the bottom 90 percent combined that's very similar to the late 30s when we had that stimulation and so on so we in a situation where we're in the part of the cycle later part of the cycle where quantitative easing has been used most of its energy asset prices are up interest rates are low and we're beginning a tightening of monetary policy very much like we began in 1937 and we have a political situation in terms of having more of a conflict between the rich and the poor which is bringing out a populism populism around the world is the selection of strong-minded leaders who are sort of take charge but tend to be more nationalistic and so we're in that type of position i think the cause effect relationships are analogous meaning that if you have a wealth gap and you have a downturn in the economy where you're sharing the pie how do you divide a budget sharing the budget there's a risk that both sides are at odds with each other there's also a greater international risk in tensions economic tensions produce global tensions for various reasons so i think that in this expansion we're about in the seventh inning of a nine inning game let's say we're in the later part of the cycle the part of the cycle in which monetary policy is tightening and there's not much capacity to squeeze out of the economy and that as interest rates tend to rise if they rise faster than is discounted in the curve it can hurt asset prices and asset prices are fairly fully priced at this level of interest rates at some point we're going to have a downturn because that's why we have recessions nobody ever gets it perfectly and uh my concern is what that downturn would be i think that that's not immediate we don't have the same pressures but i think it's maybe in two maybe it's in two years i can't say but i think that that what concerns me is that it concerns me also internationally because the situation internationally is quite similar to the late 30s in that in these periods of time these geopolitical cycles there is an established power and an emerging power that then have a rivalry at first it's an economic rivalry and then it can become quite antagonistic so back then the united states and england won world war one and we had the peace but then as there was a rising germany and a rising japan there became that kind of economic rivalry that became more antagonistic i think that we have a situation where there is a rising china and the united states is an existing economic power and there is a rivalry about that and there can be an antagonism about that so when i look at it i think the parallels are quite similar does it mean that the same outcomes have to happen okay but does mean that i think we have to be alerted to the fact that going forward in a downturn monetary policy will not be able to be as effective as it was last time so we have to be cautious about a downturn uh i would say air on the side of having a little bit more leeway and then we have to be concerned about the wealth gap and the consequences geopolitically we're in a very privileged position of having a reserve currency one of the things that distinguishes countries that really have problems from those who are able to manage their debt problems is whether the currencies denominated the debt is denominated in one's own currency that requires us in order to do that to continue to maintain sound basic finance i think we're going to have though a squeeze that will be not just related to debt but even more importantly related to pensions and health care obligations that will happen so i think these will be difficult times not immediately but i think in maybe a few years and i think it will be very dependent on how we are with each other you say where it's not an immediate issue but a couple of years out we may have a downturn as you look at where we are in the cycle what do you think normal investors should do i think that there are two key parts of investing there is what is your strategic asset allocation and then there's moving around there's tactical bets and alpha and i think the average man should not try to make tactical bets to try to produce alpha because he's going to get it wrong alpha is better than average yeah in other words to say now's the time to buy now is the time to sell market timing don't do that the history of it is clear i remember learning this and when peter lynch ran the magellan fund and there was the best stock performing fund in all the stock market when the stock market was best and the average investor lost money in it and how is that possible the reason it's possible is when it was very hot and the advertisements were there people bought and when it was had a period of bad performance they got out and they got scared and so market timing is a very difficult thing it's a very difficult thing for we who puts hundreds of millions of dollars each year and we have 1600 people at bridge one it's a difficult game and so i would say that they should not try to play that game that they should understand how to achieve balance and diversification and operating now how to do that is a conversation that's a you know a longer conversation tony robbins intro interviewed me about it and he made a very simple book as part of investing it's described in there but there's ways of achieving balance that doesn't cost you return and significantly reduces your risk so i would recommend that they come to a balanced portfolio what we call an all-weather portfolio but something that means that they're not exposed to any particular type of environment if you're going to play the cycle then realize that the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets is the same okay and then you sell when everything is great and everybody's extrapolating the past and you're near the end of the cycle because as you come in as your unemployment rate gets low and asset prices are high and debts are being built up and everyone's extrapolating the past the past will not perform up to expectations and that is the time to sell but it's very difficult for people to step away from the crowd and to do that first of all you look at how much slack is left in the cycle okay where's the unemployment rate where's the capacity what is the central bank doing is it tiding monetary policy or is it easy monetary policy that's one so how much slack second you look at how much debt has been used to finance those purchases okay third you look at the amount of uh sentiment the euphoria and fourth i would say you can see the pricing of how much debt is how much growth is built into the pricing in other words by comparing the yield on stocks and the yield on bonds and you look at the pricing you look at credit spreads and things like that they paint the picture of the future that's the discounted future and if you look at that picture of the discounted future and that picture is an extrapolation of what happened in the past to something that's unlikely to happen going forward then you would know that prices are too high and then you have to think about timing
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