저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 'Sell in May and Go Away' 등 계절·달력 기반 주식 격언은 통계적으로 근거가 없는 미신이므로 사용하지 말아야 한다. 계절성 격언의 기원: 5~9월(또는 10월)이 증시 약세기라 5월에 팔고 가을에 다시 사라는 개념이며, 영상은 이를 반박한다. 반박 근거 1: 5~9월 사이 약 4개의 9월이 평균 수익률을 끌어내리는 것이며, 해당 9월들을 제외하면 나머지는 플러스 수익이다. 6·7·8월은 오히려 평균 이상이다. 5월~10월 수익률도 플러스다. 반박 근거 2: 1월 상승 시 연간 상승, 1월 하락 시 연간 하락이라는 '1월 효과'와 '슈퍼볼 지표' 등 여러 달력 기반 지표도 무작위일 뿐이다. 통계적 특성: 주식시장은 대략 3분의 2 기간 상승, 3분의 2 기간 하락하며, 'Sell in May'는 약 3분의 1 정도만 맞았다. 2022년은 1월 하락·연간 하락이라 맞았지만 하락 대부분이 5월 이전에 발생해 5월 매도는 도움이 되지 않았다. 맥락: 농업 중심 시대의 달력 의미가 현대 제조·서비스·반도체 경제에는 맞지 않는다. 요일별 매매 등 달력 기반 전략도 통계적으로 근거가 없다. 결론적 조언: 계절성 격언은 신화이므로 버리는 것이 낫다. 특정 종목이나 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
any of these things that people want to push at you like selling may go away or the Market's going to be up in the next year because up in January can be down in the next year but down in January work sometimes and just enough of the time to make people sometimes kind of want to really sort of maybe if believe it so every year about this time you get a certain amount of cacophony aimed at the concept which is very old but false called selling may go away now as you probably know pretty much every month we take one topic from my book to bunkery and we go through some common thing that people say a lot which is basically a false thing and you shouldn't use even though people will say it so this month being May you're likely to hear a certain amount of selling may go away and the concept behind this derives from the notion the period between May and September or October depending on who you talk to it's supposed to be an exceptionally weak period in the stock market and that you'll do better if you own stocks from September October sometime one of them there until the next May and then don't own them in between sell in may go away now I'm just going to tell you that this has a lot to do with football no I'm not opposed to football and I'm not opposed to a month I wouldn't be a very good football player myself I played football a little bit when I was a little kid and I got tackled a lot but I'm going to tackle this one the fact is there's a lot of these things like in my uh Wall Street Walsh book I wrote a chapter on the Legendary Super Bowl indicator that the team that wins the Super Bowl depending on which team it is supposed to indicate whether the stock market goes up or down based on the league the team comes from you can see how ridiculous that is you can see how that's such a silly concept but so are all of the other Concepts that have things like day of the week I mean there's people that have days of the week they think you should sell on this day Buy on that day on a regular basis statistically that's ridiculous there's the so-called January feature where if January's up supposedly so is the market for the year uh well mind you if January is up the year is more likely to be up and down because you've got one out of 12 up and it's a head start right but if you actually look at the 12 months starting January 31st moving forward it's easy to see that it's perfectly random every month however we'll have a little higher or lower than average return by definition just as the same is true of a group of people some will be a little taller than average some a little shorter some a little skinnier some a little heavier doesn't tell you anything about the average human condition that you would get out of all the people in that same way May does have a slightly below average long-term history made up for by a very few year months May is a very few years excuse me it is also true that September is a month that on average has a slightly negative history but made up of four particular septembers you take those out the rest of it's positive if you actually take the average return of June July August they're actually above average and the whole period from May to September is a positive return from May to October is a positive return and you get all those uh in the book listed I'm not trying to Hawk the book at you get old copy if you want use for about 15 cents but the the fact is you can see this statistically any of these things that people want to push at you like selling may go away or the markets can be up in the next year because up in January it's gonna be down in the next year because it was down in January work sometimes and just enough of the time to make people sometimes kind of want to really sort of maybe if believe it but the reality is they work about the same percentage of the time that the Market's normally up or normally down about two-thirds of the time it's up about two-thirds of the time it's down sell in May Works about a third of the time last year to 2022 January's down and the year's down it worked then but oh by the way selling may go away didn't really help you much because a lot of the decline was before you got to May and most years it just varies by the year consistent with the fact that the market tends to be up about two-thirds of the time down about two-thirds of something there's nothing magic despite what people may tell you about the calendar year let me take a moment on that if I may people don't think about this we you me everybody else comes from a background that used to be a long long long time ago before our time overwhelmingly agricultural when my grandfather was a boy born in 1875 in San Francisco most of American labor was agricultural today one and a half percent of American laborers agricultural we don't really have a heavily Agricultural Society we consume agricultural products we use agricultural products like Lumber but the reality is the calendar is really important if you think about what you do relative to agriculture if you want to go hunting the calendar has some features that are important but if you're making chlorine or you're creating semiconductor chips or you're in the service business which is the economies mostly service business today but if you're just in the manufacturing business of most things the calendar doesn't really so much fit in but we still have this calendar and people get overwhelmingly fixed data on calendar events and as it relates to the stock market you can run statistical tests to tell if something like selling may go away and you know what none of them work that's the point that I'm wanting you to see all these end up being myths that should be debunked and the best thing to do with the myth that should be debunked is throw it away thanks thank you
댓글 0