저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
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결론: 멍거는 비트코인과 암호화폐를 생산성 없는 투기 자산이자 사회적으로 해롭고 도덕적으로 문제 있는 버블로 규정하며 강하게 부정한다. 핵심 주장: 비트코인은 컴퓨터 공학적 성취일 뿐 실질적 사회적 목적이 없다. 근거: 중국의 위챗페이 등 효율적 결제 시스템이 이미 있어 비트코인이 필요 없다. 근거: 가치가 하루에 20%씩 변동하는 자산은 결제 수단으로 부적합하다. 근거: 금 대용품으로서 불법 활동을 촉진할 수 있다. 사례: 5년 전 약 150달러였던 비트코인이 현재 약 9,000달러(고점 19,000달러)로 올랐다는 점을 언급하며 비싼 쥐약이라 불렀다. 평가: 금융기관(골드만삭스 등)의 비트코인 진출에 대해 투자은행은 동물적 본능이 강하다고 비판했다. 견해: 생산성 없는 자산은 결국 더 큰 바보에게 팔릴 것을 기대하는 구조라 튤립 버블처럼 나쁜 결말을 맞는다. 비교: 루이지애나 매입 토지나 농장처럼 실제 수익을 creates하는 자산과 대비된다. 리스크: 사기꾼과 투기꾼이 몰려들어 피해가 커진다. 전망: 암호화폐는 반드시 나쁜 결말을 맞을 것이라고 단정한다. 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 수치 목표는 없다. 출연자 전망: 멍거 본인은 암호화폐를 '치매이자 비도덕성'으로 보며 전문 트레이더들을 혐오스럽다고 표현했다.
다듬은 글
well Bitcoin as a as a the computer science behind that's behind Bitcoin he's a great Triumph of the human mind that's what captivates a lot of these people they've actually created a product that's hard to create more of but not impossible now that is very peculiar but they've managed to do it so a lot of the computer computer science people love it just because it's such an extreme achievement of computer science I of course have no interest in in that because it's not my subject and I see an artificial speculative medium that people are buying just because they think they can sell to somebody else at a higher price even though it inherently has no intrinsic value and so I regard the whole business as anti-social stupid immoral immoral yes why why would you trade suppose you could make a lot of money trading freshly harvested baby Brands would you do it or would you say that's immoral you wouldn't trade them would you it's too too awful a concept well to me Bitcoin is almost as bad it's not having any desirable social purpose we've got debit cards this is why we don't have a payment system we've got WeChat in China incredibly efficient payment system China doesn't need Bitcoin and if you have a WeChat why would you do it in a medium where the value changes enormously nobody is Right mine would want a payment system where the very thing you were using went up and down by twenty percent of the day no I regard the thing as a as a combination of dementia and immorality and I think the people that are pushing it are a disgrace there ought to be some things that are beneath you you just don't do yeah and this is one we did not need a gold certificate I made a gold substitute uh like this Bitcoin is worthless artificial gold which if it succeeded would facilitate a lot of illicit activity now that is not something I think the world needs and the fact that it's clever computer science doesn't mean that it should be widely used in the respectable people should encourage other people to speculate on Bitcoin reminds me of Oscar Wilde's definition of fox hunting the pursuit of the uneatable by the Unspeakable well that sounds better than what he used before we asked earlier Charlie Andrew brought it up with Warren but I think it's a scumball activity does that serve you better thank you yeah um we we asked earlier about Goldman Sachs getting into the business of having a trading desk for Bitcoin Berkshire Hathaway owns about two and a half billion dollars of Goldman Sachs does it bother you or does it not surprise you just well I don't expect every investment bank to agree with everything I think there they have a lot of animal spirits and investment banking five years ago right here in these chairs on Fox Business you called it rat poison but that was when it was about 150 today it's nine thousand it had hit 19 000.
so it's more expensive rat poison but but there are some people who were able to make some money and and we heard from people who are very passionate about this and they said oh those guys are just trying to protect their uh old school uh investments in U.S dollars what do you say to that well I think these idiot booms do harm to a country they frequently come to bad ends and they cause Economic Consequences that are bad for the whole damn country and so I like it when my country steps hard on idiot booms instead of Fanning the flames and if there's ever anything that needed stepping down on hard it's Bitcoin foreign capitalization of cryptocurrencies approached that of Berkshire and apple last year and clearly the idea behind crypto will affect conventional banking groups where Berkshire is a shareholder you always say you didn't go into too much detail to obtain an understanding on cryptocurrencies so what factors caused you to say that it's a bubble well generally non-productive assets remain if you bought gold at the time of Christ and you figure the compound rate on it you know it's it may be a couple tenths of one percent uh the it it's essentially is not going to deliver anything other than supposed scarcity you know because they'll only you can only mine so many but so what I mean what is what does it produce itself um now the check is a wonderful idea just imagine how the world would be without being able to write checks or have wire transfer funds but it doesn't make the check intensely itself worth a lot of money and if you said you can't use something called check with a little piece of paper you do something else to transfer money I I think that anytime you buy a non-productive asset uh you are counting on somebody else later on to buy a non-productive asset because they think they can sell it to somebody for more money and it's been tried with tulips and it's been trying it's been tried with various things over time and it does come to a bad ending I'm having you have a hard time you can you can think of think of raw land I mean the Louisiana Purchase was say 15 million dollars for 800 000 or so square miles of land in fact you're sitting on land that came with the Louisiana Purchase and and uh so what we pay we paid 20 bucks a square mile and uh you know in 640 acres in a square mile and you're down to three cents or something so that was a pretty good purchase I've been what was then a non-productive property but it depend but it's very hard you can buy stamps Bill gross got everything you know collected a wonderful stamp collection and it sold for more money in the end but it's dependent on somebody else wanting to buy hoping they will sell it for more money and so on and in the end you make your money on a productive assets if you buy a farm you you try to estimate what the crops what amount per acre of soybeans or corn or whatever may be raised and how much you have to pay the farmer that Farms it for you and what your taxes will be and various things and you make a conclusion based on what the asset itself will produce over time and that's an investment when you buy something because you're hoping tomorrow morning you're going to wake up you know and the price will be higher it's going to be you know you need more people coming into it than they're leaving and and they and you can get that and it will feed ourselves for a while and sometimes for a long while and sometimes do extraordinary numbers but in the end but they come to Bad Endings and cryptocurrencies will come to Bad Endings and along with the fact that they're nothing being produced in the way of value from the asset that you also have the problem that it draws in a lot of charlatans and that sort of a thing who are trying to create various sorts of exchanges or whatever it may be it you know it's something where where people who were of less than Stellar character see an opportunity to clip people who were trying to get rich because their neighbors getting rich buying this stuff that neither one of them understands it will come to a bad ending Charlie well I like crypto currencies a lot less than you do and so to me it's just dementia and I think the people were professional traders that go into Trading cryptocurrencies it's it's just disgusting it's like somebody else is trading turds and you decide I can't be left out to the extent that this brought we're being webcaster on the world I hope some of our stuff doesn't translate very well actually
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